238 Seminary Ave · Manchester, VT 05254

$995,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,126 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1894 0.50 ac lot Est $1122k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Manchester Village Living Experience the charm of village life in this expansive Victorian home and guest cottage, ideally located in the heart of Manchester Village. Rich in character and architectural detail, the home features original woodwork, soaring ceilings, generously sized rooms, and timeless New England appeal—enhanced by a new roof, windows and heating system. The spacious main level offers a large living and great room, formal dining with classic butler’s pantry, and a custom kitchen designed for gathering and entertaining. A breezeway leads to a expansive deck, creating seamless indoor-outdoor living. The fully equipped guest cottage with one bedroom, kitchen, bathr

Key facts

• Victorian home
• Soaring ceilings
• Guest cottage

Tags

• VICTORIAN HOME
• GUEST COTTAGE
• ORIGINAL WOODWORK
• SOARING CEILINGS
• GENEROUSLY SIZED ROOMS
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway (crushed stone/gravel)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 Amp electric service (Green Mountain Power); Fiber optic internet and cable internet available; Cable available; Propane supplied by Suburban Propane
• Home design: Victorian-style home; Existing structure; Shingle - architectural roof
• Construction: Built in 1894; Wood frame construction with wood exterior; Concrete basement floor
• Exterior features: White exterior; Sidewalks; In-town location near shopping, skiing, and schools; Circular crushed stone/gravel driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on level 1; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom suite on level 2; Three additional bedrooms on level 2; At least one bedroom on level 1; One bedroom on level 3
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on level 1; Two three-quarter bathrooms (both on level 2); One half bathroom on level 1
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Nine total rooms; Library; Bonus room; Dining room; Living room; Great room; Porch; Breezeway; Pantry; Master bedroom suite
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on level 1; Unfinished basement with interior stairs

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $995k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($43k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $995k).
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 5.0% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#80 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Elementary/Middle School (math 30% / reading 45%, grade F, #112 of 192 statewide, top 58%, 392 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 59 units permitted in Bennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Bennington County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $279k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $550k; list at $995k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1894 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $995,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1894 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.39%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,122,272
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
708 Prospect St	0.32mi	5/5.0	4,321 (+5%)	10mo	$1,075,000	$249	65
3407 Main St	0.26mi	5/3.5	4,630 (+12%)	9mo	$1,900,000	$410	58
3532 Main St	0.19mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,769 (-9%)	14mo	$1,025,000	$272	58
3357 Main St	0.32mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,609 (-12%)	8mo	$775,000	$215	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $347,207
• Equity at exit: $447,395

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.29×
• Total profit: $917,109
• Equity at exit: $689,489

Cash invested: $278,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05254

• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax from tax record: −$670 /mo · $8,045/yr
• Insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,625
• Net cashflow: $3,572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,978

Max offer price $995,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,135	-5% $3,854	+0% $3,572	+5% $3,290	+10% $3,009
Rent	-10% $2,585	-5% $3,078	+0% $3,572	+5% $4,066	+10% $4,560
Rate	-1.0pp $4,073	-0.5pp $3,825	base $3,572	+0.5pp $3,314	+1.0pp $3,052

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $248,750
• Closing costs: $29,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
163 Taconic Rd Manchester, VT	4.0	4.5	3078	$12,500	$4.06	45d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $995,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $995,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 687-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $995,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,045 · $670/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,475 · $1,123/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,430/yr (+$452/mo · 67.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $150,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,735
• − Property taxes: −$8,045
• − Insurance: −$4,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,000
• − Management: −$12,000
• − Depreciation: −$28,945
• Taxable income: $28,299
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,792
• After-tax cash flow: $36,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #17922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manchester, VT
• City population: 4,527
• Population (ZIP): 441

Population outlook (Bennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,407 people
• By 2030: 32,975 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 29,711 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 26,638 · -22.6%
• By 2075: 21,318 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 16,086 · -53.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bennington

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.5) · D 60.0% · R 37.5% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 33.4pp · 2024: 22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.5 2020: D+27.3 2016: D+22.1 2012: D+33.3 2008: D+33.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+80.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $995,000 PrimeMLS
• 2008-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $550,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $8,045 · +16.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.