5165 Howard Gnesen Rd · Rice Lake, MN 55803

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 1979 10 ac lot $164/sqft · 37% below area Est $279k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

10 acres w/mobile home 3BR, 2 full baths, Large LR & mstr. BR. Well only 2 yrs, rewired 100 amp, 12 yr old mound septic. Home has concrete pillars and is tied down. Great value. All room sizes are appx.

Key facts

• Insulated garage
• 10 acre property
• Compliant septic

Tags

• 10 ACRE PROPERTY
• COMPLIANT SEPTIC
• DRILLED WELL
• INSULATED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached gravel 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Private sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; One-story
• Construction: Rubber roofing
• Exterior features: Rubber roof; Frontage on a county road; 10-acre lot (330 x 1320)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane heating; No cooling/air conditioning
• Interior features: Main-level primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $650 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 2.5% in Rice Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#426 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Duluth Public School District (urban): math 44% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #132 of 301 in MN (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $175k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.93%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,416
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -37.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $13,049
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $64,626
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55803

• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,588/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $650

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,421

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $749	-5% $700	+0% $650	+5% $601	+10% $551
Rent	-10% $473	-5% $562	+0% $650	+5% $739	+10% $828
Rate	-1.0pp $739	-0.5pp $695	base $650	+0.5pp $605	+1.0pp $559

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $175,000 Active 877-char remark
2. 2004-08-06
   soldstatus $70,000
3. 2004-07-15
   soldstatus $70,000

   Show marketing remark (206 chars)

   10 acres w/mobile home 3BR, 2 full baths, Large LR & mstr. BR. Well only 2 yrs, rewired 100 amp, 12 yr old mound septic. Home has concrete pillars and is tied down. Great value. All room sizes are appx.

4. 2004-06-10
   historical

   Show marketing remark (206 chars)

   10 acres w/mobile home 3BR, 2 full baths, Large LR & mstr. BR. Well only 2 yrs, rewired 100 amp, 12 yr old mound septic. Home has concrete pillars and is tied down. Great value. All room sizes are appx.

5. 2004-05-07
   listed $74,900

   Show marketing remark (206 chars)

   10 acres w/mobile home 3BR, 2 full baths, Large LR & mstr. BR. Well only 2 yrs, rewired 100 amp, 12 yr old mound septic. Home has concrete pillars and is tied down. Great value. All room sizes are appx.

6. 2001-09-04
   soldstatus $15,000
7. 2001-09-04
   soldstatus $10,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,588 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,774 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$186/yr (+$16/mo · 11.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,588
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,155
• − Management: −$2,155
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $5,271
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,265
• After-tax cash flow: $6,540/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duluth Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711040
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,692
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3360
• State rank: #132 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rice Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #10118

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rice Lake, MN
• County: Saint Louis County · 115,152 people
• City population: 17,662
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 17,662
• Household income: $105,888
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 322.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 16% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -363.34%
• Current HPI: 197.6712
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+1066.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — LSAR
• 2026-05-11 Listed $175,000 LSAR
• 2004-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-15 Sold (MLS) $70,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-10 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-07 Listed $74,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $10,500 Public Records
• 2001-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,588 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.