876 Kahla Dr · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$595,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,002 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 268 Days on market

Built 2010 Good condition 0.31 ac lot $297/sqft · 19% below area Est $735k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This bright and spacious 5-bedroom, 2-bath beach house on two lots sits in the heart of popular Crystal Beach with direct beach access and sweeping views of the Gulf. The open-concept layout is ideal for relaxing getaways or rental guests, with a generous kitchen featuring granite countertops, stacked stone accents, and a dine-on bar with ample seating. Enjoy gatherings around a large dining table, or retreat to the private master suite with dual vanities, a jacuzzi tub, and separate shower. The home spans offer two lots fenced, offering a detached 2+ car garage, separate golf cart entrance, and a large attic for storage. Bonus: a convenient cargo lift makes unloading groceries and luggage a breeze. With room for everyone and all the essentials of coastal comfort, this home is a prime rental performer or the perfect family escape.

Key facts

• Sweeping views
• Direct beach access
• Granite countertops

Tags

• DIRECT BEACH ACCESS
• SWEEPING VIEWS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STACKED STONE ACCENTS
• DINE-ON BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $595k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-322 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $538k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $571k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $524k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.6% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oppe El (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #291 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 610 students, 63% FRL); Central Middle (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 879 students, 80% FRL); Ball H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,934 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1065 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,711/mo this rent would consume 96% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($524k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $523,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.50%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $735,405
• List price: $595,000
• Delta: -19.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1219 N Crystal Beach Rd	0.20mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,064 (+3%)	13mo	$709,000	$344	70
1759 Redfish Ln	0.30mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,090 (+4%)	4mo	$675,000	$323	66
875 Alberdie Dr	0.56mi	5/3.5	2,052 (+2%)	2mo	$580,000	$283	62
873 Alberdie Dr	0.57mi	5/3.5	2,052 (+2%)	2mo	$580,000	$283	62
1958 Avenue I	0.10mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,763 (-12%)	7mo	$675,000	$383	61
2025 Vista Dr	0.46mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,184 (+9%)	4mo	$575,000	$263	50
2116 Canal	0.54mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (-14%)	8mo	$425,000	$248	39
2166 Noisy Waves St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-14%)	14mo	$799,000	$465	28
867 Bowers Ln	0.70mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,716 (-14%)	13mo	$617,750	$360	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-116,398
• Equity at exit: $88,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-125,618
• Equity at exit: $51,445

Cash invested: $166,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 26.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $625,000 ($316/sqft)
• Median days on market: 94 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1065
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,711 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,120
• Tax from tax record: −$797 /mo · $9,562/yr
• Insurance: −$248
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,199
• Net cashflow: $-322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,119

Max offer price $538,105

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15	-5% $-154	+0% $-322	+5% $-490	+10% $-659
Rent	-10% $-773	-5% $-548	+0% $-322	+5% $-96	+10% $129
Rate	-1.0pp $-22	-0.5pp $-171	base $-322	+0.5pp $-476	+1.0pp $-633

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $148,750
• Closing costs: $17,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
951 Gulf Shores Dr Unit 1223252P Crystal Beach, TX	3.0–6.0	2.0–5.0	2362	$8,550	$3.62	0d	2	0.24mi
1977 Royalville Ct Unit 1630372P Crystal Beach, TX	4.0	2.5	1679	$2,658	$1.58	1d	1	0.25mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $595,000 Active 268 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $595,000 Active 267 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $595,000 Active 266 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $595,000 Active 265 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $595,000 Active 264 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $595,000 Active 262 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $595,000 Active 261 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $595,000 Active 260 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $595,000 Active 259 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $595,000 Active 258 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $595,000 Active 257 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $595,000 Active 256 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $595,000 Active 255 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $595,000 Active 254 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $595,000 Active 253 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $595,000 Active 252 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $595,000 Active 251 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $595,000 Active 250 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $595,000 Active 249 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $595,000 Active 248 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $595,000 Active 247 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $595,000 Active 246 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $595,000 Active 245 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $595,000 Active 244 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $595,000 Active 243 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $595,000 Active 242 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $595,000 Active 241 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $595,000 Active 240 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $595,000 Active 239 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $595,000 Active 238 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $595,000 Active 237 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $595,000 Active 236 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $595,000 Active 235 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $595,000 Active 234 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $595,000 Active 233 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $595,000 Active 232 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $595,000 Active 231 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $595,000 Active 230 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $595,000 Active 229 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $595,000 Active 228 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $595,000 Active 227 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $595,000 Active 226 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $595,000 Active 225 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $595,000 Active 224 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $595,000 Active 223 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $595,000 Active 222 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $595,000 Active 221 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $595,000 Active 220 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $595,000 Active 219 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $595,000 Active 218 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,562 · $797/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,888 · $907/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,326/yr (+$111/mo · 13.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $68,536
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,329
• − Property taxes: −$9,562
• − Insurance: −$11,003
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,483
• − Management: −$5,483
• − Depreciation: −$17,309
• Taxable loss: −$13,633
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,272
• After-tax cash flow: $-593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,010–$30,030 screening

This bright and spacious 5-bedroom, 2-bath beach house is in good condition with a good roof, exterior, and interior. It has a good foundation and structure, and the landscaping is well-maintained. The house is move-in ready and would benefit from painting the exterior walls and replacing the air conditioning unit to increase its value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good Flooring hardwood Counters granite Appliances stainless steel HVAC central · new lt5

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Painting the exterior walls can enhance the curb appeal and make the house more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Replace the air conditioning unit — A reliable air conditioning unit is essential for rental properties, especially in a coastal area with hot summers. ↑
• Both Seal any leaks in the roof — Sealing any leaks in the roof can prevent water damage and maintain the structural integrity of the house. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Morgan El Magnet School B TX #257/4,322 Nat'l #5,189/41,679 Middle Austin Middle A TX #35/1,662 Nat'l #537/14,009 High Ball H S F TX #1,085/1,632 Nat'l #10,882/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• County: Galveston · 390,640 people
• City population: 2,957
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,362
• Household income: $71,700
• Rent vs Own: 7.9% rent · 92.1% own

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+30.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $650,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $600,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $625,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $649,000 HARMLS
• 2021-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-03 Delisted — Galveston MLS
• 2021-04-21 Listed $549,900 Galveston MLS
• 2021-04-21 Listed $549,900 HARMLS
• 2020-12-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-10-31 Price Changed $498,900 Galveston MLS
• 2020-10-30 Price Changed $498,900 HARMLS
• 2020-07-31 Listed $499,900 HARMLS
• 2003-02-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,562 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.