876 Kahla Dr · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$615,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,002 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 176 Days on market

Built 2010 Good condition 0.31 ac lot $307/sqft · 17% below area Est $745k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This bright and spacious 5-bedroom, 2-bath beach house on two lots sits in the heart of popular Crystal Beach with direct beach access and sweeping views of the Gulf. The open-concept layout is ideal for relaxing getaways or rental guests, with a generous kitchen featuring granite countertops, stacked stone accents, and a dine-on bar with ample seating. Enjoy gatherings around a large dining table, or retreat to the private master suite with dual vanities, a jacuzzi tub, and separate shower. The home spans offer two lots fenced, offering a detached 2+ car garage, separate golf cart entrance, and a large attic for storage. Bonus: a convenient cargo lift makes unloading groceries and luggage a breeze. With room for everyone and all the essentials of coastal comfort, this home is a prime rental performer or the perfect family escape.

Key facts

• Sweeping views
• Direct beach access
• Granite countertops

Tags

• DIRECT BEACH ACCESS
• SWEEPING VIEWS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STACKED STONE ACCENTS
• DINE-ON BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $615k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $615k).
• Recommended offer: $541k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 2.0% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oppe El (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #291 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 610 students, 63% FRL); Central Middle (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 879 students, 80% FRL); Ball H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,934 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 881 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $8,304/mo this rent would consume 139% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $172k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($541k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $541,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.90%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $745,011
• List price: $615,000
• Delta: -17.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1219 N Crystal Beach Rd	0.20mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,064 (+3%)	10mo	$709,000	$344	72
1759 Redfish Ln	0.30mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,090 (+4%)	1mo	$675,000	$323	69
1958 Avenue I	0.10mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,763 (-12%)	4mo	$675,000	$383	63
2025 Vista Dr	0.46mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,184 (+9%)	1mo	$575,000	$263	53
2116 Canal	0.54mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (-14%)	5mo	$425,000	$248	42
2166 Noisy Waves St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-14%)	11mo	$799,000	$465	31
867 Bowers Ln	0.70mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,716 (-14%)	10mo	$617,750	$360	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $3,626
• Equity at exit: $91,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $137,686
• Equity at exit: $53,174

Cash invested: $172,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 26.4 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $625,000 ($321/sqft)
• Median days on market: 107 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 881
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,304 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,225
• Tax from tax record: −$797 /mo · $9,562/yr
• Insurance: −$256
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,744
• Net cashflow: $1,613

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,262

Max offer price $615,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,961	-5% $1,787	+0% $1,613	+5% $1,439	+10% $1,265
Rent	-10% $957	-5% $1,285	+0% $1,613	+5% $1,941	+10% $2,269
Rate	-1.0pp $1,923	-0.5pp $1,769	base $1,613	+0.5pp $1,454	+1.0pp $1,291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $153,750
• Closing costs: $18,450
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
951 Gulf Shores Dr Unit 1223252P Crystal Beach, TX	3.0–6.0	2.0–5.0	2362	$8,304	$3.52	0d	2	0.24mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $615,000 Active 176 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $615,000 Active 174 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $615,000 Active 173 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $615,000 Active 172 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $615,000 Active 171 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $615,000 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $615,000 Active 166 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $615,000 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $615,000 Active 163 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $615,000 Active 161 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $615,000 Active 160 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $615,000 Active 159 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $615,000 Active 158 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $615,000 Active 157 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $615,000 Active 155 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $615,000 Active 154 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $615,000 Active 153 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $615,000 Active 152 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $615,000 Active 151 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $615,000 Active 150 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $615,000 Active 149 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $615,000 Active 148 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $615,000 Active 146 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $615,000 Active 144 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $615,000 Active 143 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $615,000 Active 142 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $615,000 Active 141 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $615,000 Active 140 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $615,000 Active 139 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $615,000 Active 138 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $615,000 Active 137 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $615,000 Active 136 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $615,000 Active 135 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $615,000 Active 134 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $615,000 Active 133 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $650,000 Active 131 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $650,000 Active 129 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $650,000 Active 128 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $650,000 Active 125 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $650,000 Active 124 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $650,000 Active 123 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $650,000 Active 122 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $650,000 Active 120 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $650,000 Active 116 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $650,000 Active 115 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $650,000 Active 114 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $650,000 Active 111 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $650,000 Active 110 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $650,000 Active 109 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $650,000 Active 108 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,562 · $797/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,254 · $938/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,692/yr (+$141/mo · 17.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $99,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,450
• − Property taxes: −$9,562
• − Insurance: −$11,103
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,972
• − Management: −$7,972
• − Depreciation: −$17,891
• Taxable income: $10,699
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,568
• After-tax cash flow: $16,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,010–$30,030 screening

This bright and spacious 5-bedroom, 2-bath beach house is in good condition with a good roof, exterior, and interior. It has a good foundation and structure, and the landscaping is well-maintained. The house is move-in ready and would benefit from painting the exterior walls and replacing the air conditioning unit to increase its value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good Flooring hardwood Counters granite Appliances stainless steel HVAC central · new lt5

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Painting the exterior walls can enhance the curb appeal and make the house more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Replace the air conditioning unit — A reliable air conditioning unit is essential for rental properties, especially in a coastal area with hot summers. ↑
• Both Seal any leaks in the roof — Sealing any leaks in the roof can prevent water damage and maintain the structural integrity of the house. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Morgan El Magnet School B TX #257/4,322 Nat'l #5,189/41,679 Middle Austin Middle A TX #35/1,662 Nat'l #537/14,009 High Ball H S F TX #1,085/1,632 Nat'l #10,882/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• County: Galveston · 390,640 people
• City population: 2,957
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,362
• Household income: $71,700
• Rent vs Own: 7.9% rent · 92.1% own

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+30.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $650,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $600,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $625,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $649,000 HARMLS
• 2021-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-03 Delisted — Galveston MLS
• 2021-04-21 Listed $549,900 Galveston MLS
• 2021-04-21 Listed $549,900 HARMLS
• 2020-12-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-10-31 Price Changed $498,900 Galveston MLS
• 2020-10-30 Price Changed $498,900 HARMLS
• 2020-07-31 Listed $499,900 HARMLS
• 2003-02-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,562 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.