420 49th St E #83 · Memphis, FL 34221

$129,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1973 3,511 sqft lot Est $114k · 14% over $229/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

No Lot Rent. Welcome to easy, affordable living in Skyway Village Co-Op, a welcoming 55+ age-qualified community! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home has been thoughtfully updated and is partially furnished—making your move even easier. Recent improvements include a 2022 A/C, new carport, 2024 re-roof, durable LVP flooring, sturdy 3/4" subfloors, and new windows throughout. Inside, you’ll find an updated kitchen with modern appliances, a refreshed bathroom with a convenient walk-in shower, and the added bonus of adjacent laundry room. Enjoy Florida living at its best with two oversized lanais—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or creating your own outdoor retreat. T

Key facts

• Extra storage space
• Clubhouse
• Two oversized lanais

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• TWO OVERSIZED LANAIS
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• GOLF CART-FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Association name: Annamarie
• Financial info: Total annual HOA fees $2,748; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $229 (includes pool, common area taxes, grounds maintenance, management, private road, sewer, trash and water); Association requires approval; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard court, maintenance; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; limits on number and size); Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane roof with roof over; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built for residential use (manufactured home)
• Exterior features: Covered screened side porch; Awnings; Private mailbox; Paved lot/driveway; In-ground heated pool with gunite construction, lighting and screen enclosure; In-ground spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $632 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.98%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $113,568
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
420 49th St E #163	0.14mi	2/1.0	708 (+5%)	12mo	$120,000	$169	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $13,366
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $40,427
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,067 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $509/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$229
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $632

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $705	-5% $668	+0% $632	+5% $595	+10% $559
Rent	-10% $468	-5% $550	+0% $632	+5% $713	+10% $795
Rate	-1.0pp $697	-0.5pp $664	base $632	+0.5pp $598	+1.0pp $564

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 61st St E Unit 1 Palmetto, FL	1.0	1.0	681	$2,050	$3.01	24d	1	0.53mi
219 33rd St W Palmetto, FL	1.0	1.0	440	$1,350	$3.07	24d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $229 · $2,748/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 676-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-03-20
    listed $129,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $509 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,071 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$562/yr (+$47/mo · 110.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$509
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,985
• − Management: −$1,985
• − HOA: −$2,748
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $5,959
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,430
• After-tax cash flow: $6,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $509 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.