2970 Cherry Ln Unit M · Haines City, FL 33844

$247,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,386 sqft · Townhouse · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $179/sqft · 5% below area Est $262k · 5% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story townhome offers ample space to live and grow with a total of three bedrooms. The first level features a spacious and flexible open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room, maximizing the interior living space. Two secondary bedrooms and a lavish owner's suite featuring a full bathroom comprise the second floor.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2026
• Listed 4 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $248k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($61/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.5% in Haines City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 615 students, 66% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1941 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $217,584 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,200
• List price: $247,999
• Delta: -5.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2974 Cherry Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,386 (0%)	0mo	$221,490	$160	98
2990 Cherry Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,378 (-1%)	0mo	$237,999	$173	97
2358 Aveeno Ave	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,463 (+6%)	1mo	$264,900	$181	84
2366 Aveeno Ave	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,463 (+6%)	2mo	$269,900	$184	83
4254 Hillock Blvd	0.85mi	3/2.5	1,534 (+11%)	0mo	$254,999	$166	47
4242 Hillock Blvd	0.84mi	3/2.5	1,534 (+11%)	0mo	$254,999	$166	47
4144 Hummock Pl	0.79mi	3/2.5	1,548 (+12%)	0mo	$239,999	$155	45
4226 Hillock Blvd	0.82mi	3/2.5	1,548 (+12%)	1mo	$257,499	$166	45
4214 Hillock Blvd	0.81mi	3/2.5	1,548 (+12%)	2mo	$257,499	$166	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-43,788
• Equity at exit: $36,977

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-53,226
• Equity at exit: $21,442

Cash invested: $69,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 37 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.1 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $250,665 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 43 d
• This list price: 46% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1941
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,176 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,301
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$310 /mo · $3,720/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,169

Max offer price $247,999

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $91	+0% $5	+5% $-81	+10% $-166
Rent	-10% $-167	-5% $-81	+0% $5	+5% $91	+10% $177
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $68	base $5	+0.5pp $-59	+1.0pp $-125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,000
• Closing costs: $7,440
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2974 Cherry Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	0d	1	0.06mi
2990 Cherry Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$2,300	$1.67	7d	1	0.07mi
3874 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,130	$1.14	73d	1	0.26mi
3898 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	119d	1	0.27mi
3841 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1733	$2,150	$1.24	2d	1	0.28mi
4045 Old Mill Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	9d	1	0.30mi
1364 Conch Key Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,150	$1.45	99d	1	0.32mi
2526 Aveeno Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	9d	1	0.38mi
5193 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,099	$1.15	119d	1	0.69mi
4156 Hummock Pl Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,850	$1.20	119d	1	0.75mi
5514 Clove Row Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$2,200	$1.71	65d	1	0.77mi
4746 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	119d	1	0.77mi
5153 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	110d	1	0.78mi
4226 Hillock Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,950	$1.26	7d	1	0.79mi
5009 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,100	$1.14	9d	1	0.81mi
3754 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1720	$1,800	$1.05	119d	1	0.83mi
3840 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1542	$1,950	$1.26	7d	1	0.91mi
2404 White Tail St Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,795	$1.06	9d	1	0.96mi
2404 White Tail St Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$1,795	$1.06	6d	1	0.96mi
2622 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,200	$1.20	119d	1	0.97mi
2606 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,925	$1.13	9d	1	0.98mi
2606 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	99d	1	0.98mi
914 Princess Sabal Pt Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,775	$1.06	73d	1	1.10mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,999	$1.09	119d	1	1.20mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,100	$1.15	9d	1	1.21mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,050	$1.10	73d	1	1.21mi
1610 Merrimack Ct Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,735	$1.54	9d	1	1.28mi
2147 Doe Run Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,250	$1.36	9d	1	1.30mi
1910 Pond Pine Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,199	$1.21	9d	1	1.38mi
1186 Tupelo Trl Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,200	$1.25	73d	1	1.39mi
462 Earheart Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1598	$1,916	$1.20	65d	1	1.40mi
1202 Tupelo Trl Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,175	$1.36	9d	1	1.41mi
610 Lindbergh Way Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,641	$1.17	9d	1	1.41mi
607 Lindbergh Way Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,851	$1.32	99d	1	1.41mi
318 Lawson Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,200	$1.37	0d	1	1.42mi
339 Towns Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,795	$1.40	73d	1	1.42mi
703 Gotts Rd Davenport, FL	3.0	1.0	1160	$1,550	$1.34	65d	1	1.43mi
351 Towns Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,900	$1.48	9d	1	1.43mi
646 Lindbergh Way Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,836	$1.30	99d	1	1.45mi
501 Sea Turtle Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	9d	1	1.45mi

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,892
• − Property taxes: −$3,720
• − Insurance: −$1,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,089
• − Management: −$2,089
• − Depreciation: −$7,215
• Taxable loss: −$4,134
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$992
• After-tax cash flow: $1,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 21 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready townhome offers a spacious and modern interior with excellent curb appeal. Minor updates can further enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Newer appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology can enhance convenience and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase the home's curb appeal and property value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Eastside Elementary School F FL #1,854/2,144 Nat'l #26,096/41,679 Middle Shelley S. Boone Middle School F FL #517/571 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Ridge Community High School F FL #539/667 Nat'l #13,583/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

---

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B