2970 Cherry Ln Unit M · Haines City, FL 33844

$247,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,386 sqft · Townhouse · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story townhome offers ample space to live and grow with a total of three bedrooms. The first level features a spacious and flexible open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room, maximizing the interior living space. Two secondary bedrooms and a lavish owner's suite featuring a full bathroom comprise the second floor.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2026
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 2970 Cherry Ln Unit M, Haines City, FL 33844; Listing provided by Zillow
• Financial info: List price $269,999

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family residence, Crestone II plan; Active listing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home (Crestone II plan); Living area approximately 1,386

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $248k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-109/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 615 students, 66% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $215,791 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-44,658
• Equity at exit: $36,977

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-55,017
• Equity at exit: $21,442

Cash invested: $69,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,158 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,301
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$310 /mo · $3,720/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,169

Max offer price $246,680

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $162	-5% $77	+0% $-9	+5% $-95	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-180	-5% $-94	+0% $-9	+5% $76	+10% $161
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $54	base $-9	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,000
• Closing costs: $7,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3874 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,130	$1.14	5d	1	0.26mi
3898 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	25d	1	0.27mi
1364 Conch Key Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,150	$1.45	5d	1	0.32mi
5193 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,099	$1.15	25d	1	0.69mi
4156 Hummock Pl Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,850	$1.20	25d	1	0.75mi
4746 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	25d	1	0.77mi
5153 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	16d	1	0.78mi
5009 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,500	$1.36	25d	1	0.81mi
3754 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1720	$1,800	$1.05	25d	1	0.83mi
2622 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,200	$1.20	25d	1	0.97mi
2606 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	5d	1	0.98mi
914 Princess Sabal Pt Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,775	$1.06	16d	1	1.10mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,999	$1.09	25d	1	1.20mi
607 Lindbergh Way Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,851	$1.32	5d	1	1.41mi
703 Gotts Rd Davenport, FL	3.0	1.0	1160	$1,700	$1.47	25d	1	1.43mi
646 Lindbergh Way Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,836	$1.30	5d	1	1.45mi

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,895
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,892
• − Property taxes: −$3,720
• − Insurance: −$1,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,072
• − Management: −$2,072
• − Depreciation: −$7,215
• Taxable loss: −$4,315
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,035
• After-tax cash flow: $926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 21 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready townhome offers a spacious and modern interior with excellent curb appeal. Minor updates can further enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Newer appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology can enhance convenience and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase the home's curb appeal and property value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Newer appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology can enhance convenience and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase the home's curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B