2970 Cherry Ln Unit M · Haines City, FL 33844

$256,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · Townhouse · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $185/sqft · at area comps Est $258k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story townhome offers ample space to live and grow with a total of three bedrooms. The first level features a spacious and flexible open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room, maximizing the interior living space. Two secondary bedrooms and a lavish owner's suite featuring a full bathroom comprise the second floor.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2026
• Listed 5 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $257k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-151 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.4% in Haines City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 615 students, 66% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 2138 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 35d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $205,725 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.51%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,749
• List price: $256,990
• Delta: -0.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2922 Cherry Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,378 (-1%)	0mo	$221,590	$161	95
2974 Cherry Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,386 (0%)	2mo	$221,490	$160	95
2906 Cherry Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,378 (-1%)	0mo	$239,390	$174	94
2990 Cherry Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,378 (-1%)	2mo	$237,999	$173	93
2378 Aveeno Ave	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,463 (+6%)	0mo	$253,900	$174	83
2338 Aveeno Ave	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,463 (+6%)	1mo	$253,900	$174	82
2370 Aveeno Ave	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,463 (+6%)	1mo	$254,900	$174	82
2362 Aveeno Ave	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,463 (+6%)	1mo	$264,900	$181	82
2358 Aveeno Ave	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,463 (+6%)	2mo	$264,900	$181	81
2366 Aveeno Ave	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,463 (+6%)	4mo	$269,900	$184	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-54,955
• Equity at exit: $38,318

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-74,884
• Equity at exit: $22,220

Cash invested: $71,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 42 active · 48 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $256,692 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 34 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 2138
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,057 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,348
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$321 /mo · $3,855/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,248

Max offer price $235,173

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $27	-5% $-62	+0% $-151	+5% $-240	+10% $-328
Rent	-10% $-313	-5% $-232	+0% $-151	+5% $-70	+10% $12
Rate	-1.0pp $-21	-0.5pp $-85	base $-151	+0.5pp $-217	+1.0pp $-285

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,248
• Closing costs: $7,710
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2918 Cherry Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$1,900	$1.38	2d	1	0.01mi
2914 Cherry Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$1,950	$1.42	1d	1	0.02mi
2974 Cherry Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,600	$1.15	2d	1	0.06mi
2986 Cherry Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,730	$1.25	2d	1	0.07mi
2990 Cherry Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$2,000	$1.45	2d	1	0.07mi
3874 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,130	$1.14	118d	1	0.26mi
3917 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1737	$2,250	$1.30	2d	1	0.27mi
3898 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	164d	1	0.27mi
3841 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1733	$1,999	$1.15	10d	1	0.28mi
3833 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,100	$1.15	10d	1	0.30mi
4045 Old Mill Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	10d	1	0.30mi
1364 Conch Key Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,150	$1.45	144d	1	0.32mi
3542 Roden Rd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,000	$1.20	34d	1	0.36mi
2526 Aveeno Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	55d	1	0.38mi
5193 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,099	$1.15	164d	1	0.69mi
5521 Clove Row Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1607	$1,900	$1.18	1d	1	0.75mi
4156 Hummock Pl Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,850	$1.20	164d	1	0.75mi
5514 Clove Row Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$2,200	$1.71	110d	1	0.77mi
4746 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	164d	1	0.77mi
5153 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	155d	1	0.78mi
4226 Hillock Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,825	$1.18	10d	1	0.79mi
5009 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,100	$1.14	55d	1	0.81mi
3754 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1720	$1,800	$1.05	164d	1	0.83mi
4321 Hillock Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1542	$1,850	$1.20	10d	1	0.90mi
3836 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1734	$2,100	$1.21	10d	1	0.91mi
3836 King Hill Dr Unit 1 Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1734	$2,100	$1.21	22d	1	0.91mi
3836 King Hill Dr Unit 1 Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1734	$2,100	$1.21	21d	1	0.91mi
3840 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1542	$1,800	$1.17	41d	1	0.91mi
2404 White Tail St Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$1,795	$1.06	51d	1	0.96mi
2404 White Tail St Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,795	$1.06	55d	1	0.96mi
2622 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,200	$1.20	164d	1	0.97mi
2606 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,925	$1.13	10d	1	0.98mi
2606 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,925	$1.13	7d	1	0.98mi
914 Princess Sabal Pt Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,775	$1.06	118d	1	1.10mi
1503 Wax Myrtle Way Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1815	$2,500	$1.38	37d	1	1.16mi
1503 Wax Myrtle Way Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	10d	1	1.16mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,999	$1.09	164d	1	1.20mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,100	$1.15	10d	1	1.21mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,050	$1.10	118d	1	1.21mi
1610 Merrimack Ct Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,700	$1.51	28d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-10-11
   days on market $256,990 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-10-11
   pricedays on market $256,990 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,395
• − Property taxes: −$3,855
• − Insurance: −$1,285
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,975
• − Management: −$1,975
• − Depreciation: −$7,476
• Taxable loss: −$6,274
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,506
• After-tax cash flow: $-303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 21 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready townhome offers a spacious and modern interior with excellent curb appeal. Minor updates can further enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Newer appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology can enhance convenience and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase the home's curb appeal and property value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Eastside Elementary School F FL #1,854/2,144 Nat'l #26,096/41,679 Middle Shelley S. Boone Middle School F FL #517/571 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Ridge Community High School F FL #539/667 Nat'l #13,583/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B