2802 S 5th Ave #30 · Union Gap, WA 98903

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2021 Good condition $89/sqft · 6% below area Est $144k · 6% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.3

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home built in 2021, ideally located in the heart of Union Gap. This home features a modern open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas--perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy contemporary finishes throughout, along with a spacious primary suite complete with a private bathroom. With its newer construction, thoughtful design, and excellent condition, this home is truly move-in ready and offers the perfect blend of comfort and style.

Key facts

• Newer construction
• Private bathroom
• Prime location

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• NEWER CONSTRUCTION
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.2% in Union Gap — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#315 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Union Gap School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #105 of 291 in WA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Union Gap School (577 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 327 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 154d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 468 units permitted in Yakima County in 2024 (23 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yakima County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.44%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,750
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -6.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2802 S 5th Ave #31	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	12mo	$110,000	$73	84
2802 S 5th Ave #19	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-11%)	2mo	$105,000	$78	81
2802 S 5th Ave #63	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	7mo	$145,000	$112	64
2802 S 5th Ave #10	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-11%)	16mo	$130,000	$96	63
2802 S 5th Ave #56	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,734 (+15%)	22mo	$113,000	$65	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,987
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $21,597
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 30.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $131,500 ($98/sqft)
• Median days on market: 53 d
• This list price: 60% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 98903

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,420 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $728/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,044

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $374	-5% $335	+0% $297	+5% $259	+10% $221
Rent	-10% $185	-5% $241	+0% $297	+5% $353	+10% $409
Rate	-1.0pp $365	-0.5pp $332	base $297	+0.5pp $262	+1.0pp $227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2214 S 1st Ave Union Gap, WA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	0d	1	0.76mi
2214 S 1st Ave Union Gap, WA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	5d	1	0.76mi
Samantha Ct Union Gap, WA	3.0	2.5	1437	$1,900	$1.32	162d	1	0.77mi
2212 S 1st Ave Unit 1-3 Union Gap, WA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	47d	1	0.77mi
47 Samantha Ct Yakima, WA	3.0	2.5	1437	$1,900	$1.32	0d	1	0.81mi
1917 Landon Ave Union Gap, WA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	184d	1	1.11mi
809 W Washington Ave Yakima, WA	2.0	2.0	1264	$1,595	$1.26	154d	1	1.21mi
1106 Spokane St Yakima, WA	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,795	$1.28	162d	1	1.35mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: OTH - Agt RemrkIrrigation: none
• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed
• HOA & community: Located in Meadowlands park

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Well waterSeptic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (on leased land)Single-story
• Construction: HardiPlank-type sidingComposition roofBlock foundationBuilt as a Fleetwood manufactured unit
• Exterior features: Back yard fencingShed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchenBreakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specifically detailed
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningElectric heatingForced airHeat pump
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchenBreakfast barWalk-in closet(s)Double vanityStorm windows
• Laundry & utility: Basement: none

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $135,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $135,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on market $135,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $136,500 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $136,500 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $136,500 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $136,500 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $136,500 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $136,500 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $136,500 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $136,500 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $136,500 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $136,500 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $136,500 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $136,500 Active 38 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $136,500 Active 37 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $136,500 Active 36 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $136,500 Active 35 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $136,500 Active 34 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $136,500 Active 33 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $136,500 Active 32 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $136,500 Active 31 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $136,500 Active 30 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $136,500 Active 29 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $136,500 Active 28 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $136,500 Active 27 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $136,500 Active 26 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $136,500 Active 25 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $136,500 Active 24 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $136,500 Active 23 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $136,500 Active 22 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $136,500 Active 21 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $136,500 Active 20 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $136,500 Active 19 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $136,500 Active 18 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $136,500 Active 17 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $136,500 Active 16 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $136,500 Active 15 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $136,500 Active 14 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $136,500 Active 13 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $136,500 Active 12 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $136,500 Active 11 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $136,500 Active 10 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $136,500 Active 9 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $136,500 Active 8 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $136,500 Active 6 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $136,500 Active 5 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $136,500 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $728 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,323 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$595/yr (+$50/mo · 81.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$728
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,364
• − Management: −$1,364
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,426
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$342
• After-tax cash flow: $3,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a prime location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping the yard — A well-maintained yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient ↑

Zoned Schools

Elementary Union Gap School High Davis High School

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union Gap School District
• NCES district ID: 5309150
• Math proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,603
• Composite: 48.54/100
• National rank: #4614
• State rank: #105 of 291 in WA

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Union Gap

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #11294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union Gap, WA
• County: Yakima · 256,514 people
• Metro: Yakima, WA
• Population (ZIP): 19,010
• Household income: $69,188
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Yakima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 256,514 people
• By 2030: 259,403 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 265,677 · +3.6%
• By 2050: 273,061 · +6.5%
• By 2075: 296,991 · +15.8%
• By 2100: 315,291 · +22.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 19% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Yakima

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 41.6% · R 55.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+7.7 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.90%
• Current HPI: 300.5753
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: OTH - Agt RemrkIrrigation: none
• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed
• HOA & community: Located in Meadowlands park

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Well waterSeptic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (on leased land)Single-story
• Construction: HardiPlank-type sidingComposition roofBlock foundationBuilt as a Fleetwood manufactured unit
• Exterior features: Back yard fencingShed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchenBreakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specifically detailed
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningElectric heatingForced airHeat pump
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchenBreakfast barWalk-in closet(s)Double vanityStorm windows
• Laundry & utility: Basement: none

Price history

-24.2% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-09-14 Listed $136,500 YAMLS
• 2026-09-06 Price Changed $136,500 YAMLS
• 2026-06-23 Price Changed $140,500 YAMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $143,000 YAMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $145,000 YAMLS
• 2025-08-08 Listed $150,000 YAMLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $155,000 PACMLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $155,000 YAMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $165,000 PACMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $165,000 YAMLS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $165,500 PACMLS
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $165,500 YAMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $170,000 PACMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $170,000 YAMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $175,000 PACMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $175,000 YAMLS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $170,000 PACMLS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $170,000 YAMLS
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $175,000 PACMLS
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $175,000 YAMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed $180,000 PACMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed $180,000 YAMLS
• 2024-08-07 Sold (MLS) $175,000 PACMLS
• 2024-08-07 Sold (MLS) $175,000 YAMLS
• 2024-06-03 Contingent — PACMLS
• 2024-06-03 Pending — YAMLS
• 2024-03-11 Listed $180,000 PACMLS
• 2024-03-11 Listed $180,000 YAMLS

Property tax history

-6.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $728 · -9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.