2802 S 5th Ave #30 · Union Gap, WA 98903

$136,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2021 Good condition $90/sqft · at area comps Est $142k · at est. ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.2

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home built in 2021,ideally located in the heart of Union Gap. This home features a modern open-concept layout thatseamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas--perfect for both everyday living andentertaining. Enjoy contemporary finishes throughout, along with a spacious primary suite complete with aprivate bathroom. With its newer construction, thoughtful design, and excellent condition, thishome is truly move-in ready and offers the perfect blend of comfort and style.

Key facts

• Newer construction
• Private bathroom
• Prime location

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• NEWER CONSTRUCTION
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $136k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $136k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.5% in Union Gap — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#315 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Union Gap School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #105 of 291 in WA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Union Gap School (577 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 291 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 468 units permitted in Yakima County in 2024 (23 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $944 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yakima County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $136,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.00%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,500
• List price: $136,500
• Delta: -4.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2802 S 5th Ave #31	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	11mo	$110,000	$73	85
2802 S 5th Ave #19	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-11%)	0mo	$105,000	$78	82
2802 S 5th Ave #63	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	6mo	$145,000	$112	66
2802 S 5th Ave #10	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-11%)	15mo	$130,000	$96	64
2802 S 5th Ave #56	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,734 (+15%)	20mo	$113,000	$65	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,903
• Equity at exit: $20,353

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $19,929
• Equity at exit: $11,802

Cash invested: $38,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $150,700 ($101/sqft)
• Median days on market: 111 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 98903

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,418 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$716
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $728/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,055

Max offer price $136,500

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $364	-5% $325	+0% $287	+5% $248	+10% $209
Rent	-10% $175	-5% $231	+0% $287	+5% $343	+10% $399
Rate	-1.0pp $355	-0.5pp $321	base $287	+0.5pp $251	+1.0pp $215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,125
• Closing costs: $4,095
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2214 S 1st Ave Union Gap, WA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	0d	1	0.76mi
Samantha Ct Union Gap, WA	3.0	2.5	1437	$1,900	$1.32	116d	1	0.77mi
2212 S 1st Ave Unit 1-3 Union Gap, WA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	2d	1	0.77mi
1917 Landon Ave Union Gap, WA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	139d	1	1.11mi
809 W Washington Ave Yakima, WA	2.0	2.0	1264	$1,595	$1.26	109d	1	1.21mi
1106 Spokane St Yakima, WA	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,795	$1.28	116d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $136,500 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $136,500 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $136,500 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $136,500 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $136,500 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $136,500 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $136,500 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on marketlisting id $136,500 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-09-12
   days on market $136,500 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $136,500 Active 184 DOM
11. 2026-09-05
    days on market $140,500 Active 178 DOM
12. 2026-09-04
    days on market $140,500 Active 177 DOM
13. 2026-09-03
    days on market $140,500 Active 176 DOM
14. 2026-08-31
    days on market $140,500 Active 173 DOM
15. 2026-08-30
    days on market $140,500 Active 172 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $140,500 Active 171 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $140,500 Active 170 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $140,500 Active 169 DOM
19. 2026-08-25
    days on market $140,500 Active 167 DOM
20. 2026-08-24
    days on market $140,500 Active 166 DOM
21. 2026-08-23
    days on market $140,500 Active 165 DOM
22. 2026-08-22
    days on market $140,500 Active 164 DOM
23. 2026-08-21
    days on market $140,500 Active 163 DOM
24. 2026-08-20
    days on market $140,500 Active 162 DOM
25. 2026-08-19
    days on market $140,500 Active 161 DOM
26. 2026-08-18
    days on market $140,500 Active 160 DOM
27. 2026-08-17
    days on market $140,500 Active 159 DOM
28. 2026-08-16
    days on market $140,500 Active 158 DOM
29. 2026-08-15
    days on market $140,500 Active 157 DOM
30. 2026-08-14
    days on market $140,500 Active 156 DOM
31. 2026-08-13
    days on market $140,500 Active 155 DOM
32. 2026-08-12
    days on market $140,500 Active 154 DOM
33. 2026-08-11
    days on market $140,500 Active 153 DOM
34. 2026-08-10
    days on market $140,500 Active 152 DOM
35. 2026-08-09
    days on market $140,500 Active 151 DOM
36. 2026-08-08
    days on market $140,500 Active 150 DOM
37. 2026-08-07
    days on market $140,500 Active 149 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $140,500 Active 148 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $140,500 Active 147 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $140,500 Active 146 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $140,500 Active 145 DOM
42. 2026-08-01
    remarks 699-char remark
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $140,500 Active 142 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $140,500 Active 141 DOM
45. 2026-07-29
    days on market $140,500 Active 140 DOM
46. 2026-07-27
    days on market $140,500 Active 138 DOM
47. 2026-07-25
    days on market $140,500 Active 136 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $140,500 Active 135 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $140,500 Active 134 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $140,500 Active 133 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $728 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,338 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$610/yr (+$51/mo · 83.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,646
• − Property taxes: −$728
• − Insurance: −$682
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,361
• − Management: −$1,361
• − Depreciation: −$3,971
• Taxable income: $1,264
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$303
• After-tax cash flow: $3,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a prime location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping the yard — A well-maintained yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient ↑

Zoned Schools

Elementary Union Gap School High Davis High School

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union Gap School District
• NCES district ID: 5309150
• Math proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,603
• Composite: 48.54/100
• National rank: #4614
• State rank: #105 of 291 in WA

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Union Gap

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #11294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union Gap, WA
• County: Yakima · 256,514 people
• Metro: Yakima, WA
• Population (ZIP): 19,010
• Household income: $69,188
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Yakima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 256,514 people
• By 2030: 259,403 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 265,677 · +3.6%
• By 2050: 273,061 · +6.5%
• By 2075: 296,991 · +15.8%
• By 2100: 315,291 · +22.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 19% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Yakima

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 41.6% · R 55.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+7.7 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.90%
• Current HPI: 300.5753
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-20.6% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $143,000 YAMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $143,000 YAMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $145,000 YAMLS
• 2025-08-08 Listed $150,000 YAMLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $155,000 PACMLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $155,000 YAMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $165,000 PACMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $165,000 YAMLS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $165,500 PACMLS
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $165,500 YAMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $170,000 PACMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $170,000 YAMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $175,000 PACMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $175,000 YAMLS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $170,000 PACMLS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $170,000 YAMLS
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $175,000 PACMLS
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $175,000 YAMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed $180,000 PACMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed $180,000 YAMLS
• 2024-08-07 Sold (MLS) $175,000 YAMLS
• 2024-08-07 Sold (MLS) $175,000 PACMLS
• 2024-06-03 Contingent — PACMLS
• 2024-06-03 Pending — YAMLS
• 2024-03-11 Listed $180,000 YAMLS
• 2024-03-11 Listed $180,000 PACMLS

Property tax history

-6.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $728 · -9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.