2776 Center St · Stevinson, CA 95374

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 1959

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Little Parcel with Lots of Potential! Located in the peaceful agricultural community of Stevinson, this 8,212-square-foot parcel offers both charm and opportunity. The property features an existing well and septic system that the county has indicated to the seller may support a one-bedroom residence. A vintage trailer/Mobile needing lots of TLC sits on site that is ready for somebody with the right vision. Registration is in hand for Mobile Home with serial numbers and decal. A small shed was being converted for use but was never finished, and building supplies remain for the next owner to complete or repurpose. There is temporary electric box on a pole on site, though it will likely require a new panel and is not hooked up. This property is ready for a buyer looking for a project and a little place to call home in one of the Central Valleys most down-to-earth, rural towns.

Key facts

• Small shed
• Existing well
• Septic system

Tags

• EXISTING WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• VINTAGE TRAILER
• SMALL SHED
• TEMPORARY ELECTRIC BOX

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park home serial number: 9500110136; Property primary ID: 746104
• Financial info: Local property tax (LPT)

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking spaces listed; Owned park home site (space owned)
• Utilities: Well water; Existing septic; Public utilities available; Power on pole
• Home design: 500 living area (approx.)
• Exterior features: Other roof (see remarks)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Carpet and laminate flooring; Dining bar

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 32/100 on livability (#1,458 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hilmar Unified (rural): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #890 of 1,400 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.87%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-248
• Equity at exit: $30,309

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $21,684
• Equity at exit: $31,942

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95374

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,179/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,020

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $213	-5% $178	+0% $142	+5% $107	+10% $71
Rent	-10% $47	-5% $95	+0% $142	+5% $190	+10% $237
Rate	-1.0pp $205	-0.5pp $174	base $142	+0.5pp $110	+1.0pp $77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20096 Enid St Stevinson, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,200	$2.00	8d	1	0.18mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $125,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-05-30
    listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,179 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,179 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,179
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$346
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$83
• After-tax cash flow: $1,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hilmar Unified
• NCES district ID: 0617220
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $52,781
• Composite: 32.82/100
• National rank: #10742
• State rank: #890 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Stevinson

• Score: 32/100
• State rank: #1458
• US rank: #27853

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stevinson, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,652

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 43% Two or more races 16% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Russian 10%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 44% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.98%
• Current HPI: 118.6921
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $125,000 MLSListings
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $125,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $125,000 MLSListings
• 2026-06-12 Listed $125,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-29 Listed $165,000 MLSListings
• 2026-05-29 Listed $165,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-03 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-10 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,179 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.