1388 Farmview Ave · Spanish Lake, MO 63138

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 925 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1962 6,250 sqft lot Est $92k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FOR COMP PURPOSES ONLY

Key facts

• 6,250 sq ft lot
• Built 1962
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; 5 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 7.9% in Spanish Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#870 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Arrowpoint Elem. (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,058 of 1,115 statewide, top 96%, 358 students, 99% FRL); Hazelwood East High (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #495 of 521 statewide, top 95%, 1,264 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 53% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.07%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $91,575
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12019 Krenning Ln	0.42mi	3/1.0	930 (+0%)	1mo	$119,900	$129	78
1459 Cove Ln	0.23mi	3/1.5	988 (+7%)	3mo	$79,900	$81	74
1135 Cove Ln	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (+1%)	2mo	$85,000	$91	73
1231 Reale Ave	0.23mi	2/1.5 (-1)	864 (-7%)	2mo	$69,900	$81	69
1209 Northdale Ave	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-7%)	1mo	$79,900	$92	68
1072 Prigge Rd	0.55mi	3/1.5	960 (+4%)	1mo	$99,900	$104	66
1200 Baron Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	864 (-7%)	2mo	$77,500	$90	63
1321 Dominica Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,012 (+9%)	2mo	$124,900	$123	53
1316 Bayonne Dr	0.51mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,015 (+10%)	2mo	$105,000	$103	52
12336 Santa Maria Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+10%)	1mo	$125,000	$123	50
12371 Pinta Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+10%)	3mo	$72,900	$71	49
1328 Coppergate Ln	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,061 (+15%)	0mo	$104,900	$99	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,261
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $16,023
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63138

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,411 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,034/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $933

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $443	-5% $410	+0% $378	+5% $345	+10% $312
Rent	-10% $266	-5% $322	+0% $378	+5% $433	+10% $489
Rate	-1.0pp $435	-0.5pp $407	base $378	+0.5pp $348	+1.0pp $317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1359 Cove Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,427	$1.54	2d	1	0.12mi
1376 Cove Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,365	$1.48	24d	1	0.14mi
11891 Bridgevale Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	24d	1	0.17mi
11930 Criterion Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,350	$1.65	44d	1	0.19mi
1455 Broadlawns Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,395	$1.53	13d	1	0.22mi
1504 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1014	$1,299	$1.28	5d	1	0.23mi
1473 Broadlawns Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	44d	1	0.25mi
1223 Walker Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	936	$1,800	$1.92	44d	1	0.30mi
1218 Walker Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,275	$1.36	24d	1	0.32mi
1132 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1080	$1,195	$1.11	44d	1	0.41mi
1141 Scott Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	22d	1	0.47mi
11921 Larimore Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	44d	1	0.57mi
1708 San Remo Ct St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1053	$1,300	$1.23	2d	9	0.60mi
1321 Dominica Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,400	$1.38	44d	1	0.62mi
12367 Horizon Village Dr Unit 12367 I St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	836	$995	$1.19	24d	1	0.98mi
12401 Horizon Village Dr Unit 12415 A St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	836	$995	$1.19	44d	1	1.05mi
1333 N Garden Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	626	$1,100	$1.76	44d	1	1.09mi
11969 Continental Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$1,325	$1.23	2d	3	1.12mi
1342 N Garden Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	626	$1,100	$1.76	2d	3	1.13mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $115,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,034 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,116 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$82/yr (+$7/mo · 7.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,034
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,355
• − Management: −$1,355
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,827
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$678
• After-tax cash flow: $3,852/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Spanish Lake

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #25189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spanish Lake, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,233
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,233
• Household income: $56,096
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 925.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.09%
• Current HPI: 165.2146
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+94.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-25 Rental Removed $1,125 APPFOLIO
• 2024-05-05 Price Changed $1,125 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-12 Listed for Rent $1,200 APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-21 Rental Removed $1,300 RENT.
• 2023-10-17 Price Changed $1,300 RENT.
• 2023-10-14 Listed for Rent $1,315 RENT.
• 2019-12-23 Listed $90,250 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $90,250 Public Records
• 2019-12-09 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-31 Price Changed $29,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 1979-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,034 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.