1311 Scoter Duck Rd · Columbia, TN 38401

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 94 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is perfectly located near the serene Duck River. The spacious kitchen with a large island is ideal for cooking and entertaining. Enjoy the luxurious primary suite with a beautiful en-suite bathroom featuring a tile shower, garden tub, and double sink vanity. Step outside to the deck facing the Duck River with a fenced in back yard for a peaceful spot to unwind and enjoy nature Book your tour today! We look forward to helping you find your dream home.

Key facts

• Kitchen appliances
• Primary suite
• Storage shed

Tags

• STORAGE SHED
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed price: $179,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service; Natural gas; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Spec home — Champion Duck River Estates plan; Single-family property
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, microwave, and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric and natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.8% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#207 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Maury County (town): math 19% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #108 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 1118 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,650 units permitted in Maury County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maury County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.28%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,663
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $40,914
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38401

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 1118
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,010 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $670/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,602

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $444	-5% $383	+0% $323	+5% $262	+10% $202
Rent	-10% $164	-5% $244	+0% $323	+5% $402	+10% $482
Rate	-1.0pp $411	-0.5pp $367	base $323	+0.5pp $278	+1.0pp $231

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1827 Goldsberry St Columbia, TN	3.0	2.5	1503	$1,795	$1.19	16d	1	1.10mi
552 Nightengale Ridge Dr , TN	3.0	2.5	2163	$2,500	$1.16	13d	1	1.14mi
1422 Club House Dr Columbia, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$1,799	$1.73	2d	20	1.24mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 76 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,930
• − Management: −$1,930
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,200
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$288
• After-tax cash flow: $3,587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maury County
• NCES district ID: 4702760
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,668
• Composite: 17.69/100
• National rank: #9024
• State rank: #108 of 139 in TN

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #16090

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, TN
• County: Maury County · 121,382 people
• City population: 67,482
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 67,482
• Household income: $68,475
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2026.0

Population outlook (Maury County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,894 people
• By 2030: 110,269 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 124,426 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 137,543 · +33.7%
• By 2075: 167,438 · +62.7%
• By 2100: 184,489 · +79.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Maury

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.6) · D 27.1% · R 71.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -44.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.6 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.75%
• Current HPI: 343.0362
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B