11702 Watermelon St · Houston, TX 77048

$236,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,023 sqft · Land · 111 Days on market

Built 2026 3,323 sqft lot $232/sqft · at area comps Est $245k · at est. $38/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step inside through the inviting Wyeth into a spacious family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen offers a central island, ample cabinet space, and a layout that keeps everyone connected. The private primary suite (Bedroom 1) is tucked away at the rear of the home and features a walk-in closet and an en-suite bath for added comfort and privacy. Two additional bedrooms are positioned on the opposite side of the home with a shared full bath ideal for family, guests, or a home office setup. Enjoy indoor outdoor living with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing evenings, morning coffee, or weekend gatherings.

Key facts

• Central island
• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio

Tags

• CENTRAL ISLAND
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATH
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $237k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-540 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (32.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (39.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Frost El (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,259 of 4,322 statewide, top 99%, 489 students, 97% FRL); Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Sterling H S (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,421 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 13% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $143,825 (39.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.76%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,703
• List price: $236,990
• Delta: -3.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 1.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-13,206
• Equity at exit: $101,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $4,060
• Equity at exit: $152,412

Cash invested: $66,357 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77048

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,243
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$296 /mo · $3,555/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,121

Max offer price $158,914

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-376	-5% $-458	+0% $-540	+5% $-621	+10% $-703
Rent	-10% $-653	-5% $-596	+0% $-540	+5% $-483	+10% $-426
Rate	-1.0pp $-420	-0.5pp $-479	base $-540	+0.5pp $-601	+1.0pp $-663

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,248
• Closing costs: $7,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6160 Madden Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	911	$1,209	$1.33	0d	266	0.34mi
6107 El Granate Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1192	$1,000	$0.84	6d	1	0.39mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,273	$1.09	0d	1	0.56mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,073	$1.01	0d	1	0.56mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 421 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	6d	1	0.56mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	9d	1	0.56mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 5659 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	12d	1	0.56mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,313	$1.13	12d	1	0.56mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	4d	1	0.56mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,114	$1.05	0d	1	0.56mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,324	$1.13	12d	1	0.56mi
10902 Faircroft Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,455	$1.11	0d	1	0.73mi
11911 Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	701	$1,050	$1.50	9d	1	0.74mi
11917 Martin Luther King Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	805	$1,025	$1.27	23d	1	0.78mi
11917 Martin Luther King Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	805	$1,025	$1.27	20d	1	0.78mi
6505 Wide Meadow Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,185	$1.29	16d	1	0.83mi
5425 E Orem Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	910	$1,499	$1.65	0d	13	0.89mi
5426 Greylog Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,750	$1.45	25d	1	0.90mi
11319 Murr Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1213	$1,699	$1.40	20d	1	1.36mi
5919 Allison Rd Unit B Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1450	$1,850	$1.28	45d	1	1.36mi
5408 Groveton St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1472	$1,983	$1.35	0d	1	1.40mi
13427 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1443	$2,095	$1.45	9d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $236,990 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $236,990 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $236,990 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $236,990 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $236,990 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $236,990 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $236,990 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $236,990 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $236,990 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $236,990 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $236,990 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $236,990 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-03-02
    listed $236,990 Active 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    Step inside through the inviting Wyeth into a spacious family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen offers a central island, ample cabinet space, and a layout that keeps everyone connected. The private primary suite (Bedroom 1) is tucked away at the rear of the home and features a walk-in closet and an en-suite bath for added comfort and privacy. Two additional bedrooms are positioned on the opposite side of the home with a shared full bath ideal for family, guests, or a home office setup. Enjoy indoor outdoor living with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing evenings, morning coffee, or weekend gatherings.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,275
• − Property taxes: −$3,555
• − Insurance: −$1,185
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,381
• − Management: −$1,381
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$6,894
• Taxable loss: −$10,868
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,608
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,867/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,151
• Household income: $56,747
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 266.4468
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $236,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $397 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.