9160 SW 31st Avenue Rd · Liberty Triangle, FL 34476

$194,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 100 Days on market

Built 2025 9,148 sqft lot $138/sqft · 26% above area Est $154k · 26% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * $8,500 SELLERS CONCESSIONS and a 1 YEAR HOME WARRANTY * * * Welcome to this 2025 built, 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home located in desirable SW Ocala, conveniently close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. This home offers an open floor plan with LVP flooring and carpet, creating a fresh and inviting feel throughout. The light and bright kitchen features ample cabinet space and plenty of storage, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite includes a private bath with a walk-in shower, all bedrooms have walk in closets, and the home also features a dedicated laundry room for added convenience with additional storage space. Enjoy outdoor living in the fully fenced yard with a double gate, ideal for vehicles, toys, or pets. This home offers comfort, functionality, and value—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Private bath
• Walk in closets

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LVP FLOORING
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK IN SHOWER
• WALK IN CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.5% in Liberty Triangle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 852 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $194k implies a 1041% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,540 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.49%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,320
• List price: $194,000
• Delta: 25.71%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9165 SW 32nd Ct	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-0%)	4mo	$150,000	$107	83
3197 SW 89th Pl	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,436 (+2%)	3mo	$144,000	$100	75
9850 SW 27th Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,403 (-0%)	7mo	$160,000	$114	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-12,691
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,686
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34476

• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,920 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $409/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,433

Max offer price $194,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $494	-5% $439	+0% $384	+5% $329	+10% $42
Rent	-10% $233	-5% $308	+0% $384	+5% $460	+10% $536
Rate	-1.0pp $482	-0.5pp $434	base $384	+0.5pp $334	+1.0pp $283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7194 SW 91st Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.5	1571	$1,950	$1.24	22d	1	0.12mi
8880 SW 27th Ave Ocala, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1178	$1,399	$1.19	22d	1	0.34mi
3085 SW 97th St Unit 2 Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$1,049	$1.09	14d	1	0.49mi
9975 SW 39th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,295	$1.23	14d	1	1.10mi
4296 SW 98th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1607	$1,700	$1.06	22d	1	1.30mi
8320 SW 41st Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1841	$2,300	$1.25	14d	1	1.32mi
8665 SW 44th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,895	$1.30	22d	1	1.38mi
9109 SW 45th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,150	$1.18	14d	1	1.41mi
8590 SW 44th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,895	$1.30	14d	1	1.44mi
8590 SW 44th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,895	$1.30	14d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 866-char remark

   Show marketing remark (866 chars)

   * * * $8,500 SELLERS CONCESSIONS and a 1 YEAR HOME WARRANTY * * * Welcome to this 2025 built, 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home located in desirable SW Ocala, conveniently close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. This home offers an open floor plan with LVP flooring and carpet, creating a fresh and inviting feel throughout. The light and bright kitchen features ample cabinet space and plenty of storage, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite includes a private bath with a walk-in shower, all bedrooms have walk in closets, and the home also features a dedicated laundry room for added convenience with additional storage space. Enjoy outdoor living in the fully fenced yard with a double gate, ideal for vehicles, toys, or pets. This home offers comfort, functionality, and value—schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-05-14
   price $194,000 866-char remark

   Show marketing remark (866 chars)

   * * * $8,500 SELLERS CONCESSIONS and a 1 YEAR HOME WARRANTY * * * Welcome to this 2025 built, 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home located in desirable SW Ocala, conveniently close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. This home offers an open floor plan with LVP flooring and carpet, creating a fresh and inviting feel throughout. The light and bright kitchen features ample cabinet space and plenty of storage, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite includes a private bath with a walk-in shower, all bedrooms have walk in closets, and the home also features a dedicated laundry room for added convenience with additional storage space. Enjoy outdoor living in the fully fenced yard with a double gate, ideal for vehicles, toys, or pets. This home offers comfort, functionality, and value—schedule your showing today!

3. 2026-04-29
   price $196,000 866-char remark

   Show marketing remark (866 chars)

   * * * $8,500 SELLERS CONCESSIONS and a 1 YEAR HOME WARRANTY * * * Welcome to this 2025 built, 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home located in desirable SW Ocala, conveniently close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. This home offers an open floor plan with LVP flooring and carpet, creating a fresh and inviting feel throughout. The light and bright kitchen features ample cabinet space and plenty of storage, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite includes a private bath with a walk-in shower, all bedrooms have walk in closets, and the home also features a dedicated laundry room for added convenience with additional storage space. Enjoy outdoor living in the fully fenced yard with a double gate, ideal for vehicles, toys, or pets. This home offers comfort, functionality, and value—schedule your showing today!

4. 2026-02-06
   listed $198,000 Active 866-char remark

   Show marketing remark (866 chars)

   * * * $8,500 SELLERS CONCESSIONS and a 1 YEAR HOME WARRANTY * * * Welcome to this 2025 built, 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home located in desirable SW Ocala, conveniently close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. This home offers an open floor plan with LVP flooring and carpet, creating a fresh and inviting feel throughout. The light and bright kitchen features ample cabinet space and plenty of storage, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite includes a private bath with a walk-in shower, all bedrooms have walk in closets, and the home also features a dedicated laundry room for added convenience with additional storage space. Enjoy outdoor living in the fully fenced yard with a double gate, ideal for vehicles, toys, or pets. This home offers comfort, functionality, and value—schedule your showing today!

5. 2026-01-29
   status Active
6. 2026-01-29
   historical
7. 2026-01-08
   status Pending
8. 2026-01-02
   price $187,000
9. 2025-12-09
   price $189,000
10. 2025-11-29
    price $195,500
11. 2025-10-02
    listed $198,000 Active
12. 2025-09-12
    historical
13. 2025-07-25
    status Pending
14. 2025-07-09
    price $198,000
15. 2025-06-19
    price $206,000
16. 2025-01-29
    listed $208,000 Active
17. 2024-11-22
    soldstatus $17,000
18. 1994-08-01
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $409 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,201/yr (+$100/mo · 293.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$409
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,843
• − Management: −$1,843
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable income: $1,460
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$350
• After-tax cash flow: $4,260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Liberty Triangle

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 26,397
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,997
• Household income: $65,860
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 204.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.22%
• Current HPI: 189.0869
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.57%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+870.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $194,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $196,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listed $198,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $187,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-29 Price Changed $195,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Listed $198,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $198,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $206,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-29 Listed $208,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records
• 1994-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $409 · +44.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.