429 Cady Rd · Joshua Tree, CA 92252

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 616 sqft · Manufactured public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1975 2.50 ac lot $242/sqft · 39% below area Est $246k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sweat equity, contractor, & major up value opportunity for a creative person! Functionally a 2 bedroom and 2 bath fixer-upper is ready for someone with a vision! Guest house cabin, 2 car garage, 2 stall carport and a shipping container workshop. Much of the initial demo work has already been cleaned up. May qualify for a FHA 203(k) rehabilitation loan. Private setting with views, Joshua Trees and desert fauna. Expansive 2.5 acres fenced adjacent to 35 acres of government open space land directly south and east of the property for hiking, dog walking or horseback riding. Million dollar homes in the area. Horse property. Starry nights. Views of the snow capped peaks on Mt San Gorgonio. Vistas of the the Bullion Mtns and Copper Mtn. Ideal for a designer compound retreat. Less than 1 mile to the Copper Mtn Mesa Community Association where locals meet up for events and weekend breakfasts. 7 miles to the Joshua Tree Lake Bed for off roading and exploring the canyons. 17 miles to the Joshua Tree National Monument where about 3 million tourists visit annually. 19 Miles to Yucca Valley for all amenities. 51 miles to Palm Springs. 139 miles to Los Angeles. The JT zip code has become an established high end location with new modern homes and professionally designed remodels that can be seen throughout the area. Don't Wait! - Call Now!

Key facts

• Private setting
• Guest house cabin
• 2.5 acre lot

Tags

• GUEST HOUSE CABIN
• SHIPPING CONTAINER WORKSHOP
• PRIVATE SETTING
• EXPANSIVE ACRES FENCED
• VIEWS OF SNOW CAPPED PEAKS
• VISTAS OF BULLION MTNS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.7% in Joshua Tree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,114 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.67%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,000
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -39.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,443
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $14,156
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92252

• Home prices YoY: -7.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 534
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,835 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,991/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,278

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $525	-5% $483	+0% $441	+5% $398	+10% $356
Rent	-10% $296	-5% $368	+0% $441	+5% $513	+10% $586
Rate	-1.0pp $516	-0.5pp $479	base $441	+0.5pp $402	+1.0pp $363

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $149,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-04-19
    listed $165,000 Active 1350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1350 chars)

    Sweat equity, contractor, & major up value opportunity for a creative person! Functionally a 2 bedroom and 2 bath fixer-upper is ready for someone with a vision! Guest house cabin, 2 car garage, 2 stall carport and a shipping container workshop. Much of the initial demo work has already been cleaned up. May qualify for a FHA 203(k) rehabilitation loan. Private setting with views, Joshua Trees and desert fauna. Expansive 2.5 acres fenced adjacent to 35 acres of government open space land directly south and east of the property for hiking, dog walking or horseback riding. Million dollar homes in the area. Horse property. Starry nights. Views of the snow capped peaks on Mt San Gorgonio. Vistas of the the Bullion Mtns and Copper Mtn. Ideal for a designer compound retreat. Less than 1 mile to the Copper Mtn Mesa Community Association where locals meet up for events and weekend breakfasts. 7 miles to the Joshua Tree Lake Bed for off roading and exploring the canyons. 17 miles to the Joshua Tree National Monument where about 3 million tourists visit annually. 19 Miles to Yucca Valley for all amenities. 51 miles to Palm Springs. 139 miles to Los Angeles. The JT zip code has become an established high end location with new modern homes and professionally designed remodels that can be seen throughout the area. Don't Wait! - Call Now!

17. 2022-08-23
    soldstatus $110,000 Closed Sale 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Investment Opportunity at its best!! Property comes with WATER METER , POWER METER, PROPANE TANK, SEPTIC SYSTEM, fixer Mobile home with 2 bed 2bath , Incomplete CABIN 1Bed 1 Bath, 2 CAR detached Garage, 2 car metal carport, fully fenced-in property and very easy access. Short distance to paved roads and located in a growing and appreciating area in North Joshua Tree. City of Joshua Tree is home to Joshua Tree National Park, Monuments, many Retreat Centers, plenty of parks and hiking places and home to Celebrities nearby. Great for investors or for someone looking to buy affordable and fix as you go. Enough land for any project or storage needs.

18. 2022-08-23
    soldstatus $110,000

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Investment Opportunity at its best!! Property comes with WATER METER , POWER METER, PROPANE TANK, SEPTIC SYSTEM, fixer Mobile home with 2 bed 2bath , Incomplete CABIN 1Bed 1 Bath, 2 CAR detached Garage, 2 car metal carport, fully fenced-in property and very easy access. Short distance to paved roads and located in a growing and appreciating area in North Joshua Tree. City of Joshua Tree is home to Joshua Tree National Park, Monuments, many Retreat Centers, plenty of parks and hiking places and home to Celebrities nearby. Great for investors or for someone looking to buy affordable and fix as you go. Enough land for any project or storage needs.

19. 2022-07-21
    status Pending Sale 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Investment Opportunity at its best!! Property comes with WATER METER , POWER METER, PROPANE TANK, SEPTIC SYSTEM, fixer Mobile home with 2 bed 2bath , Incomplete CABIN 1Bed 1 Bath, 2 CAR detached Garage, 2 car metal carport, fully fenced-in property and very easy access. Short distance to paved roads and located in a growing and appreciating area in North Joshua Tree. City of Joshua Tree is home to Joshua Tree National Park, Monuments, many Retreat Centers, plenty of parks and hiking places and home to Celebrities nearby. Great for investors or for someone looking to buy affordable and fix as you go. Enough land for any project or storage needs.

20. 2022-06-13
    listed $134,900 Active 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Investment Opportunity at its best!! Property comes with WATER METER , POWER METER, PROPANE TANK, SEPTIC SYSTEM, fixer Mobile home with 2 bed 2bath , Incomplete CABIN 1Bed 1 Bath, 2 CAR detached Garage, 2 car metal carport, fully fenced-in property and very easy access. Short distance to paved roads and located in a growing and appreciating area in North Joshua Tree. City of Joshua Tree is home to Joshua Tree National Park, Monuments, many Retreat Centers, plenty of parks and hiking places and home to Celebrities nearby. Great for investors or for someone looking to buy affordable and fix as you go. Enough land for any project or storage needs.

21. 2019-10-18
    historical
22. 2019-05-04
    listed $85,000 Active
23. 2006-07-06
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,991 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,991 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,991
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,762
• − Management: −$1,762
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $3,085
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$740
• After-tax cash flow: $4,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Joshua Tree

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1114
• US rank: #25611

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 7,538
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 7,538
• Household income: $66,598
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 345.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Black 3% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.66%
• Current HPI: 541.8347
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.09%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+230.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed $165,000 GPSMLS
• 2022-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-23 Sold (MLS) $110,000 CRMLS
• 2022-07-21 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-06-13 Listed $134,900 CRMLS
• 2019-10-18 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2019-05-04 Listed $85,000 GPSMLS
• 2006-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,991 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.