401 E 8th St · Forsan, TX 79733

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1980 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bed, 1 bath property situated on 3 lots in Forsan ISD with plenty of potential and extra space to work with. Great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking for a project. Cash sale only. Seller is motivated and will consider all offers. Don't miss your chance to turn this property into something special!

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 57 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($831 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#418 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Forsan ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #259 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Howard County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Howard County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.03%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $24,259
• Equity at exit: $29,227

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.48×
• Total profit: $63,293
• Equity at exit: $45,042

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79733

• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $831 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $363/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $504

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $295	-5% $277	+0% $258	+5% $240	+10% $221
Rent	-10% $193	-5% $225	+0% $258	+5% $291	+10% $324
Rate	-1.0pp $291	-0.5pp $275	base $258	+0.5pp $241	+1.0pp $224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $65,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $65,000 Active 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    2 bed, 1 bath property situated on 3 lots in Forsan ISD with plenty of potential and extra space to work with. Great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking for a project. Cash sale only. Seller is motivated and will consider all offers. Don't miss your chance to turn this property into something special!

17. 2026-03-19
    soldstatus
18. 2025-02-03
    soldstatus
19. 2015-02-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $363 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$827/yr (+$69/mo · 228.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$363
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$798
• − Management: −$798
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $2,156
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$517
• After-tax cash flow: $2,581/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forsan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819620
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $72,975
• Composite: 38.74/100
• National rank: #4128
• State rank: #259 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forsan

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #418
• US rank: #8615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forsan, TX
• City population: 439
• Population (ZIP): 439

Population outlook (Howard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,396 people
• By 2030: 46,792 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 54,096 · +24.7%
• By 2050: 61,707 · +42.2%
• By 2075: 79,809 · +83.9%
• By 2100: 87,385 · +101.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 45% Two or more races 27% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 9% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Howard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 18.2% · R 81.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.6pp toward R · 2008: -46.3pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+58.4 2016: R+56.0 2012: R+58.2 2008: R+46.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $65,000 PBBOR
• 2026-03-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+48.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $363 · +20.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.