3250 Lapis Lake Dr · Zephyrhills West, FL 33541

$255,740

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,760 sqft · Townhouse · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Est $275k · 7% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ideal for busy family living, this two-story townhome includes an open kitchen, dining and family room for ample space, leading to an expansive covered patio for outdoor opportunities. A loft on the second floor separates all three bedrooms, including the peaceful owner's suite with a private full-sized bathroom and a large walk-in closet. Completing the home is a convenient one-car garage.

Key facts

• Loft on second floor
• Large walk-in closet
• Open kitchen

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• EXPANSIVE COVERED PATIO
• LOFT ON SECOND FLOOR
• PRIVATE FULL-SIZED BATHROOM
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3250 Lapis Lake Dr, Zephyrhills, FL 33541; Listing last modified Jun 7, 2026
• Financial info: List price $254,240

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space / 1 total parking space
• Home design: Single-family residence (spec build)
• Exterior features: Living area 1760 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home (Constitution plan); Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $256k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-77/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 7.8% in Zephyrhills West — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 862 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,229/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 393% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $222,903 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $274,560
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3361 Lapis Lk	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,807 (+3%)	7mo	$278,750	$154	85
3465 Lapis Lake Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,760 (0%)	10mo	$259,300	$147	82
3477 Lapis Lake Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,760 (0%)	10mo	$249,900	$142	81
3481 Lapis Lake Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,807 (+3%)	11mo	$284,000	$157	76
3473 Lapis Lake Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,597 (-9%)	11mo	$249,100	$156	66
3469 Lapis Lake Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,597 (-9%)	12mo	$252,000	$158	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-48,349
• Equity at exit: $38,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-67,737
• Equity at exit: $22,112

Cash invested: $71,607 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 862
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,229 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$320 /mo · $3,836/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,237

Max offer price $254,810

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $82	+0% $-6	+5% $-95	+10% $-183
Rent	-10% $-183	-5% $-94	+0% $-6	+5% $82	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $59	base $-6	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,935
• Closing costs: $7,672
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3328 Lapis Lake Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1597	$1,999	$1.25	12d	1	0.06mi
3346 Lapis Lake Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1760	$1,975	$1.12	1d	1	0.08mi
35759 Sunflower Hill Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,400	$1.52	13d	1	0.70mi
36100 Sunflower Hill Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,395	$1.51	19d	1	0.80mi
35541 Kinsey Pt Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.5	2305	$2,675	$1.16	26d	1	0.81mi
36171 Sunflower Hill Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,450	$1.57	13d	1	0.86mi
4235 Ryals Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	2000	$2,250	$1.12	13d	1	0.98mi
35077 Ackley Trce Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,500	$1.34	19d	1	1.24mi
37327 Sagemoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.5	2226	$2,600	$1.17	26d	1	1.29mi
37329 Sagemoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,600	$1.04	23d	1	1.29mi
35029 Brackett Bnd Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$2,400	$1.24	13d	1	1.32mi
34916 Mulrion Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	26d	1	1.45mi
34718 Kircher Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1970	$2,600	$1.32	26d	1	1.46mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	26d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,740 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,740 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,740 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $255,740 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,240 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $255,240 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,240 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 393-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   listed $254,240 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,325
• − Property taxes: −$3,836
• − Insurance: −$1,279
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,140
• − Management: −$2,140
• − Depreciation: −$7,440
• Taxable loss: −$4,411
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,059
• After-tax cash flow: $982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story townhome is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers ample space and a convenient layout, making it ideal for busy families. Updates to the exterior and interior paint, flooring, and smart home features can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental appeal by offering convenience and modern amenities.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental appeal by offering convenience and modern amenities. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills West

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #17403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B