521 Bay Creek Xing · Loganville, GA 30052

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Built 1995 Average condition $51/sqft · 77% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a well maintain 3 bedrooms with two full baths manufactured home located in Loganville, GA The Master bedroom includes a nice size walk in closet and built in cabinetry in the bathroom. This property is located on leased land for a monthly payment of $705.

Key facts

• Built 1995
• Listed 81 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.4% vs local median 4.0% in Loganville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#39 in GA, #4,689 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Walton County (rural): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #31 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 847 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 677 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walton County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.83%
• DSCR: 4.51
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,678
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -77.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
740 Jacoby Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,348 (+5%)	0mo	$305,000	$226	74
417 Mockingbird Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,335 (+4%)	5mo	$286,000	$214	72
1168 Granite Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+10%)	5mo	$290,000	$206	72
311 Bay Creek Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+6%)	8mo	$288,000	$212	71
1197 Granite Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,446 (+13%)	8mo	$240,000	$166	64
721 Jacoby Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+6%)	9mo	$287,000	$212	63
533 Pebble Point Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,241 (-3%)	18mo	$314,900	$254	63
729 Jacoby Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,357 (+6%)	18mo	$302,900	$223	57
629 Granite Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,362 (+6%)	15mo	$285,000	$209	56
709 Jacoby Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,448 (+13%)	14mo	$290,000	$200	40
723 Jacoby Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,468 (+15%)	16mo	$303,000	$206	38
758 Jacoby Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+14%)	23mo	$289,000	$198	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.19×
• Total profit: $57,998
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.68×
• Total profit: $139,759
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30052

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 847
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $1,070

Break-even live

Break-even rent $727

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
475 Bay Creek Rd Loganville, GA	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,450	$1.41	24d	1	0.07mi
1169 Granite Ln Loganville, GA	3.0	2.0	1430	$2,025	$1.42	2d	1	0.09mi
313 Bruce St Loganville, GA	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,673	$1.56	24d	1	0.27mi
249 Meadows Dr Loganville, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$1,895	$1.76	43d	1	0.33mi
413 Bob Wood Dr Loganville, GA	3.0	2.0	1346	$2,123	$1.58	24d	1	0.53mi
127 Perry St Loganville, GA	4.0	3.0	1616	$2,450	$1.52	22d	1	0.54mi
160 Cown Dr Loganville, GA	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,650	$1.18	24d	1	0.70mi
112 Chase Landing Dr Unit Gentry Loganville, GA	3.0	2.5	1830	$2,797	$1.53	2d	1	1.05mi
100 Alexander Xing Loganville, GA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1381	$1,895	$1.37	2d	20	1.12mi
301 Victory Gallup Ln Loganville, GA	3.0–4.0	2.5	2082	$2,420	$1.16	1d	1	1.14mi
2217 Baker Carter Dr Loganville, GA	3.0	2.5	1620	$1,870	$1.15	43d	1	1.14mi
9200 Liberty Ln Loganville, GA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1243	$2,359	$1.90	1d	16	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-03-29
    listed $65,000 Active 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Welcome to a well maintain 3 bedrooms with two full baths manufactured home located in Loganville, GA The Master bedroom includes a nice size walk in closet and built in cabinetry in the bathroom. This property is located on leased land for a monthly payment of $705.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone A · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,984
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$1,828
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,999
• − Management: −$1,999
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $12,652
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,036
• After-tax cash flow: $9,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home requires cosmetic repairs to its exterior and roof, but the interior is in good condition. Painting the exterior and replacing HVAC filters would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — Visible signs of deterioration

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Replace HVAC filters — Improves air quality and tenant satisfaction

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Visible signs of deterioration	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Replace HVAC filters — Improves air quality and tenant satisfaction ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton County
• NCES district ID: 1305390
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,716
• Composite: 36.52/100
• National rank: #4643
• State rank: #31 of 174 in GA

Livability — Loganville

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #4689

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Loganville, GA
• County: Walton County · 128,246 people
• City population: 79,811
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 79,811
• Household income: $93,764
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1174.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,098 people
• By 2030: 102,496 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 110,318 · +12.5%
• By 2050: 115,848 · +18.1%
• By 2075: 125,830 · +28.3%
• By 2100: 123,852 · +26.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.7% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+49.2 2016: R+56.4 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+52.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.77%
• Current HPI: 212.1241
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Listed $65,000 FMLS