836 San Juan Dr · Alamogordo, NM 88310

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1995 7,362 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2-bathroom gem is ready to be called home. The lush front yard with shade trees welcomes you into the extended covered porch, which is a great place to sit and enjoy desert evenings. Several upgrades have been done to the interior to include flooring, light fixtures, ceiling fans, and paint. Complete with refrigerated air, a 2-car garage, ample storage space, and a large walk-in closet in the primary bedroom, you have plenty of options for those extra items. You will love the large backyard, complete with a storage shed and a nicely sized covered patio for enjoyment and entertaining. Shown by appointment only, call to schedule a time to view today!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Large rooms
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• LARGE ROOMS
• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• THOUGHTFULLY DESIGNED KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Site-built home; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Private pool; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closet(s); Window coverings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($619/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#5 in NM, #3,233 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Alamogordo Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #26 of 95 in NM (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,453 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-41,772
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-43,841
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88310

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,135 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,954/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,069

Max offer price $260,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $199	-5% $125	+0% $52	+5% $-22	+10% $-96
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $-33	+0% $52	+5% $136	+10% $220
Rate	-1.0pp $183	-0.5pp $118	base $52	+0.5pp $-16	+1.0pp $-84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1104 San Miguel Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1749	$2,500	$1.43	5d	1	0.14mi
2200 1st St Alamogordo, NM	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1011	$1,979	$1.96	5d	18	0.91mi
1309 Jackson Ave Alamogordo, NM	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,500	$1.02	45d	1	1.00mi
323 Camino Real Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.5	1848	$2,000	$1.08	16d	1	1.41mi
2637 Las Alturas Ct Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,600	$1.17	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $260,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $260,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $260,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-05
   listed $260,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,954 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,080 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$126/yr (+$10/mo · 6.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$1,954
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,049
• − Management: −$2,049
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$3,866
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$928
• After-tax cash flow: $1,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamogordo Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500030
• Math proficiency: 26% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $42,194
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #11572
• State rank: #26 of 95 in NM

Livability — Alamogordo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #3233

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamogordo, NM
• County: Otero County · 36,983 people
• City population: 36,983
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• Population (ZIP): 36,983
• Household income: $57,214
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1231.0

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.88%
• Current HPI: 181.737
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+73.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $260,000 OCAOR
• 2023-04-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-04-26 Sold (MLS) — OCAOR
• 2023-03-17 Pending — OCAOR
• 2023-03-15 Listed $240,000 OCAOR
• 2019-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-29 Sold (MLS) — OCAOR
• 2018-10-19 Listed $159,900 OCAOR
• 2012-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-06-28 Sold (MLS) — OCAOR
• 2012-05-01 Listed $149,500 OCAOR
• 2008-02-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,954 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.