234 E Moss St · Lawson, MO 64062

$100,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,430 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1974 0.32 ac lot ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming three-bedroom home nestled on a tranquil dead-end street. As you enter the home you are greeted by a cozy, renovated living space with tons of natural lighting with new floor covering throughout. The adjacent kitchen features ample cabinet space and a breakfast nook perfect for enjoying your morning coffee, the basement features a cozy family room, full bath and laundry and a one car garage.

Key facts

• Large lot
• 0.32 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• LARGE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#197 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lawson R-Xiv (rural): math 46% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #28 of 324 in MO (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lawson High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 338 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Ray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ray County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.

Recommended offer $91,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.76%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $225,940
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 S Doniphan St	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,505 (+5%)	3mo	$229,000	$152	79
242 S Raum St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,464 (+2%)	4mo	$128,000	$87	78
210 E Moss St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+10%)	9mo	$249,900	$159	70
160 Nolker Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,475 (+3%)	9mo	$234,000	$159	65
154 Cardinal Cir	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,438 (+1%)	7mo	$175,000	$122	65
811 West St	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,450 (+1%)	4mo	$239,900	$165	61
124 S Doniphan St	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,225 (-14%)	12mo	$170,000	$139	58
113 W 8th Ter	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+5%)	8mo	$235,000	$157	49
522 E 3rd St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+13%)	15mo	$229,500	$142	48
414 S Raum St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,218 (-15%)	14mo	$192,500	$158	47
412 W Moss St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	14mo	$198,000	$159	44
169 Nolker Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,562 (+9%)	22mo	$249,900	$160	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,360
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $24,024
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64062

• Home prices YoY: -6.1%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,346 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,677/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $999

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $331	-5% $303	+0% $275	+5% $246	+10% $218
Rent	-10% $168	-5% $221	+0% $275	+5% $328	+10% $381
Rate	-1.0pp $325	-0.5pp $300	base $275	+0.5pp $249	+1.0pp $222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-03-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-24
   price $100,000
3. 2026-02-21
   status Active
4. 2026-02-07
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-01-30
   price $110,000
6. 2026-01-17
   price $120,000
7. 2025-12-28
   price $130,000
8. 2025-12-02
   price $150,000
9. 2025-11-30
   listed $175,000 Active
10. 2025-10-23
    historical
11. 2025-08-29
    listed $235,100 Active
12. 2024-06-10
    soldstatus Closed 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Welcome to this charming three-bedroom home nestled on a tranquil dead-end street. As you enter the home you are greeted by a cozy, renovated living space with tons of natural lighting with new floor covering throughout. The adjacent kitchen features ample cabinet space and a breakfast nook perfect for enjoying your morning coffee, the basement features a cozy family room, full bath and laundry and a one car garage.

13. 2024-05-07
    status Pending 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Welcome to this charming three-bedroom home nestled on a tranquil dead-end street. As you enter the home you are greeted by a cozy, renovated living space with tons of natural lighting with new floor covering throughout. The adjacent kitchen features ample cabinet space and a breakfast nook perfect for enjoying your morning coffee, the basement features a cozy family room, full bath and laundry and a one car garage.

14. 2024-04-16
    listed $212,000 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Welcome to this charming three-bedroom home nestled on a tranquil dead-end street. As you enter the home you are greeted by a cozy, renovated living space with tons of natural lighting with new floor covering throughout. The adjacent kitchen features ample cabinet space and a breakfast nook perfect for enjoying your morning coffee, the basement features a cozy family room, full bath and laundry and a one car garage.

15. 2024-04-12
    historical
16. 2024-03-10
    status Active
17. 2024-03-04
    status Pending
18. 2024-02-10
    status Active
19. 2024-02-02
    historical
20. 2024-01-30
    listed $217,000 Active
21. 2014-09-16
    soldstatus
22. 2014-08-04
    listed $50,000
23. 2008-12-15
    soldstatus
24. 2008-11-05
    listed $107,000
25. 2007-06-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,677 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,677 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,677
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,293
• − Management: −$1,293
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $1,884
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$452
• After-tax cash flow: $2,842/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawson R-Xiv
• NCES district ID: 2918220
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,448
• Composite: 44.55/100
• National rank: #2787
• State rank: #28 of 324 in MO

Livability — Lawson

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #10156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawson, MO
• Population (ZIP): 6,752

Population outlook (Ray County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,420 people
• By 2030: 20,507 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 18,550 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 16,516 · -22.9%
• By 2075: 12,899 · -39.8%
• By 2100: 10,413 · -51.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ray

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 25.1% · R 73.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.2pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+45.0 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+14.9 2008: R+3.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.03%
• Current HPI: 323.5321
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $100,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Contingent — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $110,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $120,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-28 Price Changed $130,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $150,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-30 Listed $175,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Listed $235,100 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-10 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-07 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-16 Listed $212,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-12 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-10 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-04 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-10 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-02 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-30 Listed $217,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-16 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-04 Listed $50,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-15 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-05 Listed $107,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,677 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.