2629 Cochran St · Erie, PA 16508

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,371 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1887 4,826 sqft lot Est $138k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well Maintained 3 Bedroom 1 Bath Home Located On Low Traffic Street. Two Car Driveway, Large Backyard With Deck. First Floor Laundry, Electric Hook Up, 100 Amp Electric Box, High Efficiency Furnace Installed 2015,Water Heater 2018, Kitchen 15x15, Stove And Refrigerator Included. Vinyl Windows, Sitting Room/Home Office 8x10. Spacious Living Room 21x13. Dining Room 15x13. Move In Ready.

Key facts

• Vinyl windows
• Large backyard
• First floor laundry

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• TWO CAR DRIVEWAY
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACE
• VINYL WINDOWS
• SITTING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 34 x 138 (0.1108 acres)

Exterior

• Security: Security system; Fire alarm
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Residential property (R-1 zoning)
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Built with a foundation and includes an unfinished basement; Home warranty in place
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Fenced yard; Asphalt roof; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 9 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Security system and fire alarm; Satellite dish; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.1% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Perry El Sch (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,362 of 1,518 statewide, top 92%, 462 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Pa Collegiate Academy (math 82%, 753 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $115k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1887 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1887 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.56%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,471
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
434 Stafford Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,320 (-4%)	1mo	$127,094	$96	83
2684 Chestnut St	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,572 (+15%)	1mo	$139,900	$89	69
239 E 25th St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,404 (+2%)	1mo	$77,500	$55	62
3322 Glenwood Park Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-9%)	1mo	$140,000	$112	61
2618 Hazel St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,226 (-11%)	1mo	$123,450	$101	60
518 W 19th St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,472 (+7%)	1mo	$109,900	$75	59
215 W 20th St	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,248 (-9%)	2mo	$125,000	$100	59
2946 Poplar St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,254 (-8%)	1mo	$172,000	$137	59
2905 Plum St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-3%)	3mo	$151,000	$113	58
3216 French St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,220 (-11%)	2mo	$175,000	$143	52
816 W 28th St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-14%)	1mo	$159,900	$136	47
933 W 27th St	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,504 (+10%)	2mo	$132,500	$88	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-5,695
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $11,774
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16508

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,276 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,855/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,020

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $235	+0% $203	+5% $170	+10% $138
Rent	-10% $102	-5% $152	+0% $203	+5% $253	+10% $304
Rate	-1.0pp $261	-0.5pp $232	base $203	+0.5pp $173	+1.0pp $143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
504 W 29th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	45d	1	0.24mi
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	45d	1	0.43mi
811 W 30th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	45d	1	0.61mi
3603 Maple St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	45d	1	0.66mi
126 W 38th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1850	$4,000	$2.16	45d	1	0.71mi
1022 W 30th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	45d	1	0.83mi
1610 Poplar St Unit Downstairs Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$875	$0.73	45d	1	0.86mi
923 Chestnut St Unit 2 Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	45d	1	1.18mi
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	45d	1	1.26mi
729 W 9th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1782	$3,000	$1.68	45d	1	1.33mi
223 E 9th St Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1564	$1,300	$0.83	45d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   remarks 387-char remark
5. 2026-06-17
   listed $115,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,855 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,855 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,855
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,225
• − Management: −$1,225
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $649
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$156
• After-tax cash flow: $2,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 14,958
• Household income: $56,391
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 420.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.05%
• Current HPI: 250.759
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+461.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $115,000 GEBOR
• 2019-02-27 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2018-11-27 Listed $55,000 West Penn MLS
• 2018-08-27 Listed $55,000 GEBOR
• 2018-07-24 Listed $64,900 GEBOR
• 2015-10-08 Listed $69,900 GEBOR
• 2002-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records
• 1994-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1991-11-11 Sold (Public Records) $20,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,855 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.