235 Magnolia Creek Rd · Miramar Beach, FL 32459

$350,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1997 0.27 ac lot Est $481k · 27% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LOCATION. LOCATION. LOCATION. Investors if you've been looking for a prime opportunity for a fix and flip project, THIS is your sign. Now offered at a dramatically improved price of $350K, AS-IS, this is a massive equity play -- most available land and lots in this highly desirable area are priced significantly higher than this move-in ready home. Tucked away in the desirable gated community of Magnolia Creek, this immaculate 3-bed, 2-bath home on an oversized corner lot is perfectly situated to capitalize on a prime fix-and-flip opportunity. You are just 2 miles from the sugar-white sands of Ed Walline Beach Access and minutes from Cessna Landing and Chat Holley, giving you exceptional pr

Key facts

• Gated community
• Oversized corner lot
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• OVERSIZED CORNER LOT
• FENCED BACKYARD
• PRIVATE POOL POTENTIAL
• PROXIMITY TO ED WALLINE BEACH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association (Magnolia Creek Phase 2); Association maintains grounds and provides management; Fees include accounting, ground keeping, and management; Gated community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Driveway space for about 4 vehicles
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electric service; Public water; Septic tank (sewer available); TV cable available; Tap fee due
• Home design: Single-story (1 story) beach house style; Entry level: first floor; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Built in 1997; Metal roof with pitched design and solar energy features; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Private yard; Pavilion/gazebo; Sprinkler system; Yard building; Separate living area; Deck (enclosed); Covered patio; Screened porch; Corner lot on a cul-de-sac; Level lot; Within 1/2 mile to water; Private paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (master suite on the first floor with sitting area)
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with cultured marble, double vanity, shower, skylight, and tile
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric heat control
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Fireplace (EPA qualified); Pantry; Split bedroom floorplan; Washer/dryer hookup; Storm door(s); Solar screens; Skylights; Window treatments; Partially furnished / unfurnished option
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included (washer and dryer listed); Washer/dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-688/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $340k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.1% in Miramar Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#569 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Van R. Butler Elementary School (math 77% / reading 69%, grade A, #271 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 1,013 students, 30% FRL); South Walton High School (math 61% / reading 73%, grade B, #69 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,235 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 48% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 1593 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $235k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,820 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.70%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $480,928
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
317 Magnolia Creek Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,578 (-0%)	15mo	$395,000	$250	86
53 Magnolia Creek Rd	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,676 (+6%)	19mo	$385,003	$230	61
74 Chapman St	0.62mi	3/3.0	1,633 (+3%)	4mo	$500,000	$306	58
105 Hatton Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-5%)	9mo	$499,000	$333	57
82 S Zander Way	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,397 (-12%)	1mo	$425,000	$304	53
162 Christian Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,746 (+10%)	1mo	$385,500	$221	53
168 Chapman St	0.54mi	3/3.0	1,620 (+2%)	21mo	$532,500	$329	49
134 Hatton Ct	0.61mi	3/3.0	1,675 (+6%)	14mo	$525,000	$313	46
146 S Zander Way	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,397 (-12%)	11mo	$350,000	$251	42
381 Whispering Lake Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,749 (+11%)	21mo	$500,000	$286	42
174 S Zander Way	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,397 (-12%)	10mo	$390,000	$279	42
200 Christian Dr	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,351 (-15%)	17mo	$460,000	$340	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-68,397
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-95,318
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32459

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 1593
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,708 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,386/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,781

Max offer price $339,878

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $141	-5% $42	+0% $-57	+5% $-156	+10% $-255
Rent	-10% $-271	-5% $-164	+0% $-57	+5% $50	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $119	-0.5pp $32	base $-57	+0.5pp $-148	+1.0pp $-240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Kara Lake Dr Santa Rosa Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2200	$2,600	$1.18	22d	1	0.31mi
88 Plantation Way Unit 1447175P Santa Rosa Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$3,262	$2.28	14d	1	0.32mi
133 Nuit Ln Santa Rosa Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1329	$2,600	$1.96	22d	1	0.36mi
77 Exuma Way Santa Rosa Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$2,760	$2.45	14d	11	0.36mi
74 Whispering Lake Dr Santa Rosa Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,995	$1.63	22d	1	0.45mi
254 S County Highway 393 Santa Rosa Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1437	$2,400	$1.67	22d	1	0.60mi
32 S 1st St Santa Rosa Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1675	$2,500	$1.49	22d	1	0.72mi
9 Central 7th St Santa Rosa Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1491	$3,000	$2.01	14d	1	0.86mi
520 S County Highway 393 Unit 40B Santa Rosa Beach, FL	4.0	4.5	1914	$3,650	$1.91	22d	1	0.88mi
169 Ocean Walk Ln SANTA RSA BCH, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$2,810	$2.70	22d	23	0.96mi
45 Sparrow Ave , FL	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,950	$1.32	22d	1	1.00mi
3 Egret Ave Santa Rosa Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1490	$2,184	$1.47	14d	3	1.00mi
64 Phoenix St SANTA RSA BCH, FL	3.0	2.5	1472	$2,000	$1.36	22d	1	1.04mi
5 Central 7th St Santa Rosa Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1491	$3,000	$2.01	14d	1	1.05mi
52 Piper Cv Santa Rosa Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	2018	$3,700	$1.83	22d	1	1.19mi
360 Orleans Ave SANTA RSA BCH, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,469	$2.53	22d	15	1.43mi
783 Indian Woman Rd Unit 1447173P Santa Rosa Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,678	$1.79	22d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $350,000 Active
3. 2026-04-13
   price $424,900
4. 2025-11-05
   price $429,000
5. 2025-10-03
   listed $439,000 Active
6. 2025-04-03
   listed $449,900 Active
7. 2015-06-10
   soldstatus $235,000
8. 2015-06-05
   soldstatus $235,000
9. 2015-06-05
   soldstatus $235,000
10. 2015-05-22
    listed $239,000
11. 2007-01-10
    soldstatus $100,000
12. 1998-03-26
    soldstatus $100,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,386 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,905 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,519/yr (+$127/mo · 109.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$1,386
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,600
• − Management: −$2,600
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$6,825
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,638
• After-tax cash flow: $950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — Miramar Beach

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #569
• US rank: #10855

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• City population: 8,486
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,522
• Household income: $107,821
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 633.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.08%
• Current HPI: 368.4091
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.45%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+249.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-05-15 Listed $350,000 ECAR
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $424,900 ECAR
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $429,000 ECAR
• 2025-10-03 Listed $439,000 ECAR
• 2025-04-03 Listed $449,900 ECAR
• 2015-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2015-06-05 Sold (MLS) $235,000 NAMLS
• 2015-06-05 Sold (MLS) $235,000 ECAR
• 2015-05-22 Listed $239,000 NAMLS
• 2007-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1998-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $100,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,386 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.