12 Green Ave · Lewistown, PA 17044

$118,900

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,476 sqft · Other public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1950 2,178 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two-story home with 4 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. This home has new flooring and fresh paint throughout! The first floor has a large living room with a gas fireplace, an open kitchen-dining area, washer/dryer hookups, and a half-bath with room for storage. The second floor has 4 bedrooms and a full bathroom. The home has off-street parking and a partially fenced in yard. Call today to schedule a showing! This will not last long!

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Bonus room
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• BONUS ROOM
• GAS FIREPLACE
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.0% in Lewistown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#1,057 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Mifflin County SD (town): math 28% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #380 of 539 in PA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Mifflin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $822 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mifflin County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,116 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.91%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-10,576
• Equity at exit: $17,728

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,058
• Equity at exit: $10,280

Cash invested: $33,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17044

• Home prices YoY: -6.7%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,289/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,058

Max offer price $118,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $170	+0% $136	+5% $102	+10% $69
Rent	-10% $39	-5% $87	+0% $136	+5% $185	+10% $233
Rate	-1.0pp $196	-0.5pp $166	base $136	+0.5pp $105	+1.0pp $74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,725
• Closing costs: $3,567
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   listed $118,900 Active
3. 2023-09-18
   soldstatus $95,000
4. 2023-09-14
   soldstatus $95,000 Closed 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   Two-story home with 4 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. This home has new flooring and fresh paint throughout! The first floor has a large living room with a gas fireplace, an open kitchen-dining area, washer/dryer hookups, and a half-bath with room for storage. The second floor has 4 bedrooms and a full bathroom. The home has off-street parking and a partially fenced in yard. Call today to schedule a showing! This will not last long!

5. 2023-07-26
   status Pending 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   Two-story home with 4 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. This home has new flooring and fresh paint throughout! The first floor has a large living room with a gas fireplace, an open kitchen-dining area, washer/dryer hookups, and a half-bath with room for storage. The second floor has 4 bedrooms and a full bathroom. The home has off-street parking and a partially fenced in yard. Call today to schedule a showing! This will not last long!

6. 2023-07-07
   listed $95,000 Active 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   Two-story home with 4 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. This home has new flooring and fresh paint throughout! The first floor has a large living room with a gas fireplace, an open kitchen-dining area, washer/dryer hookups, and a half-bath with room for storage. The second floor has 4 bedrooms and a full bathroom. The home has off-street parking and a partially fenced in yard. Call today to schedule a showing! This will not last long!

7. 2002-08-02
   soldstatus $41,000 44-char remark

   Show marketing remark (44 chars)

   tenant occupied. 48 hour notice for showings

8. 2002-01-11
   listed $41,000 44-char remark

   Show marketing remark (44 chars)

   tenant occupied. 48 hour notice for showings

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,289 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,584 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$295/yr (+$25/mo · 22.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,660
• − Property taxes: −$1,289
• − Insurance: −$1,261
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$3,459
• Taxable loss: −$266
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$64
• After-tax cash flow: $1,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mifflin County SD
• NCES district ID: 4215290
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,718
• Composite: 32.28/100
• National rank: #5755
• State rank: #380 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lewistown

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #1057
• US rank: #11920

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lewistown, PA
• Population (ZIP): 20,526

Population outlook (Mifflin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,611 people
• By 2030: 43,212 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 40,197 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 36,813 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 28,833 · -35.4%
• By 2100: 20,296 · -54.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Polish 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mifflin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.4) · D 21.4% · R 77.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.7pp · 2024: -56.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.4 2020: R+56.1 2016: R+57.5 2012: R+46.8 2008: R+33.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.27%
• Current HPI: 214.2729
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+190.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $118,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-14 Sold (MLS) $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-07-26 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-07-07 Listed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-08-02 Sold (MLS) $41,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-01-11 Listed $41,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,289 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.