8015 W Xavier St #129 · Conroe, TX 77303

$109,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 159 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2026 Good condition $70/sqft · 60% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.9

Listing remarks

Step into this BRAND NEW modern farmhouse 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home. Featuring bright finishes, no carpet, and an open layout - this home is a dream!

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 158 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $211 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.4% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patterson El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 977 students, 74% FRL); Bozman Int (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 988 students, 68% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 34% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1106 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $96,795 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.24%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,000
• List price: $109,995
• Delta: -60.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11811 Stratosphere St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+5%)	4mo	$259,990	$158	69
11746 Airspeed Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,717 (+10%)	1mo	$264,990	$154	65
10638 Altitude Way	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+2%)	0mo	$264,692	$165	62
10906 Ozone Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,810 (+15%)	5mo	$267,990	$148	54
11891 Stratosphere St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,810 (+15%)	4mo	$269,990	$149	53
11885 Stratosphere St	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,889 (+20%)	2mo	$259,990	$138	48
6169 White Oak Leaf Loop	1.29mi	3/2.0	1,761 (+12%)	2mo	$249,000	$141	43
10500 Fawn Mist Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,244 (-21%)	5mo	$374,500	$301	42
10604 Altitude Way	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,772 (+13%)	5mo	$268,252	$151	42
9554 Hindo Dr	0.85mi	3/2.0	1,386 (-12%)	7mo	$275,000	$198	40
12340 N Chestnut Hills Dr	1.40mi	3/2.0	1,794 (+14%)	4mo	$319,000	$178	37
9934 Sterling Place Dr	0.93mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,842 (+18%)	1mo	$239,000	$130	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-7,947
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-3,437
• Equity at exit: $9,510

Cash invested: $30,799 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active
• Median asking: $109,995 ($76/sqft)
• Median days on market: 256 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +132.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1106
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $109,995

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $287	-5% $249	+0% $211	+5% $173	+10% $135
Rent	-10% $114	-5% $163	+0% $211	+5% $260	+10% $309
Rate	-1.0pp $267	-0.5pp $239	base $211	+0.5pp $183	+1.0pp $154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,499
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11085 Pine Acre Trails Blvd Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1382	$1,299	$0.94	6d	1	0.35mi
11014 Inflow Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$1,460	$0.82	41d	1	0.47mi
10726 Sunlit St Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,100	$0.79	157d	1	0.47mi
11106 Altimeter Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$1,439	$0.80	19d	1	0.51mi
9922 Sterling Place Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,707	$1.26	21d	1	0.94mi
12340 N Chestnut Hills Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1794	$1,900	$1.06	126d	1	1.39mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveListing last modified: 2026-06-02
• Financial info: Listed for $114,995

Exterior

• Home design: Spec homePlan name: 8015 W Xavier St
• Exterior features: Address: 8015 W Xavier St #129, Conroe, TX 77303

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 1568 square feet listed separately)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $109,995 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $109,995 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $109,995 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $109,995 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $109,995 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $109,995 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $109,995 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $109,995 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $109,995 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $109,995 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $109,995 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $109,995 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $109,995 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $109,995 Active 145 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $109,995 Active 144 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $109,995 Active 143 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $109,995 Active 142 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $109,995 Active 141 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $109,995 Active 140 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $109,995 Active 139 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $109,995 Active 138 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $109,995 Active 137 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $109,995 Active 136 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $109,995 Active 135 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $109,995 Active 134 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $109,995 Active 133 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $109,995 Active 132 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $109,995 Active 131 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $109,995 Active 130 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $109,995 Active 129 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $109,995 Active 128 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $109,995 Active 127 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $109,995 Active 126 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $109,995 Active 125 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $109,995 Active 124 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $109,995 Active 123 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $109,995 Active 122 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $109,995 Active 121 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $109,995 Active 120 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $109,995 Active 119 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $109,995 Active 118 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $109,995 Active 117 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $109,995 Active 116 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $109,995 Active 115 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $109,995 Active 114 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $109,995 Active 113 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $109,995 Active 112 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $109,995 Active 111 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $109,995 Active 110 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $109,995 Active 109 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,161
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $835
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$200
• After-tax cash flow: $2,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,840–$23,520 screening

This modern farmhouse is in excellent condition with a fresh, updated look. It's move-in ready and ready to be enhanced with minor updates to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring with a more modern style can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen with new appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Integrating smart home technology can increase the home's appeal and marketability. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Patterson El F TX #2,149/4,322 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Bozman Int D- TX #572/1,662 Nat'l #5,398/14,009 High Conroe H S F TX #767/1,632 Nat'l #7,907/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveListing last modified: 2026-06-02
• Financial info: Listed for $114,995

Exterior

• Home design: Spec homePlan name: 8015 W Xavier St
• Exterior features: Address: 8015 W Xavier St #129, Conroe, TX 77303

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 1568 square feet listed separately)