17245 Aspenwood · Lindale, TX 75771

$169,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · Manufactured public records · 112 Days on market

Built 2009 0.81 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3/2 country cutie is just waiting for you! When you open the front door you will fall in love with the open concept floor plan of this charming, remodeled, beautifully designed, well loved home. The spacious master bedroom suite is split from the other bedrooms and offers easy access to the laundry room and back entrance of the home. The kitchen cabinets and backsplash have been updated as has the living/dining/kitchen area flooring. Situated on a quiet, tree covered lot in the back of the subdivision, the spacious backyard offers a tranquil setting with a Pergola and Koi Pond and plenty of shady comfort. Designer touches throughout make this home a must see! Schedule your appointment today to see this one before its gone!

Key facts

• Walk in closet
• 0.81 acre lot
• Built 2009

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• COMPLETELY REMODELED HOME
• SPACIOUS MASTER BEDROOM SUITE
• WALK IN CLOSET
• REMODELED MASTER BATHROOM
• REMODELED GUEST BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.3% in Lindale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#52 in TX, #2,100 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lindale ISD (town): math 71% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #20 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Velma Penny El (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #199 of 4,322 statewide, top 5%, 541 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 633 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 52% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,245 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.54%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-13,551
• Equity at exit: $25,273

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,033
• Equity at exit: $14,655

Cash invested: $47,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75771

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,646 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$889
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,467/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,369

Max offer price $169,500

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,375
• Closing costs: $5,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-06
   soldstatus
2. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-16
   historical Active Option Contract
5. 2026-02-18
   price $169,500
6. 2026-02-18
   price $169,500
7. 2025-12-17
   price $179,500
8. 2025-12-16
   price $179,500
9. 2025-12-08
   listed $189,500 Active
10. 2025-11-21
    price $189,500
11. 2025-10-07
    price $199,500
12. 2025-09-13
    listed $205,000 Active
13. 2017-06-16
    soldstatus
14. 2017-06-14
    soldstatus 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    This 3/2 country cutie is just waiting for you! When you open the front door you will fall in love with the open concept floor plan of this charming, remodeled, beautifully designed, well loved home. The spacious master bedroom suite is split from the other bedrooms and offers easy access to the laundry room and back entrance of the home. The kitchen cabinets and backsplash have been updated as has the living/dining/kitchen area flooring. Situated on a quiet, tree covered lot in the back of the subdivision, the spacious backyard offers a tranquil setting with a Pergola and Koi Pond and plenty of shady comfort. Designer touches throughout make this home a must see! Schedule your appointment today to see this one before its gone!

15. 2017-04-22
    listed $79,500 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    This 3/2 country cutie is just waiting for you! When you open the front door you will fall in love with the open concept floor plan of this charming, remodeled, beautifully designed, well loved home. The spacious master bedroom suite is split from the other bedrooms and offers easy access to the laundry room and back entrance of the home. The kitchen cabinets and backsplash have been updated as has the living/dining/kitchen area flooring. Situated on a quiet, tree covered lot in the back of the subdivision, the spacious backyard offers a tranquil setting with a Pergola and Koi Pond and plenty of shady comfort. Designer touches throughout make this home a must see! Schedule your appointment today to see this one before its gone!

16. 2012-02-29
    soldstatus
17. 2011-12-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,467 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,102 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,635/yr (+$136/mo · 111.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 52% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,495
• − Property taxes: −$1,467
• − Insurance: −$848
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,581
• − Management: −$1,581
• − Depreciation: −$4,931
• Taxable loss: −$144
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$34
• After-tax cash flow: $2,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lindale ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827510
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,325
• Composite: 58.85/100
• National rank: #974
• State rank: #20 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lindale

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #2100

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 21,238
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,238
• Household income: $93,462
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 166.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.40%
• Current HPI: 200.187
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+113.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-16 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-03-16 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $169,500 NTREIS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $169,500 GTAR
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $179,500 GTAR
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $179,500 NTREIS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $189,500 NTREIS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $189,500 GTAR
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $199,500 GTAR
• 2025-09-13 Listed $205,000 GTAR
• 2017-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-06-14 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2017-04-22 Listed $79,500 GTAR
• 2012-02-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,467 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.