305 4th St NE · Dilworth, MN 56529

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,780 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 1967 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity in a well-established neighborhood! This beautifully remodeled home has been updated from top to bottom, offering truly move-in ready living. Recent improvements include new smart siding, windows, flooring, fresh paint, trim, and doors, along with fully updated electrical and plumbing systems. The kitchen features new countertops, sink, and backsplash, while the bathroom has been completely renovated with a fresh, modern feel. Outside, enjoy a new concrete driveway and additional parking pad, a fully fenced yard, and a storage shed. The garage offers added functionality with an exterior overhead door to the backyard. With 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and extensive updates throug

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1967

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car), concrete floor; garage dimensions approximately 16 x 22
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One-story home; Entry level: Main
• Construction: Block foundation; Basement: full, finished (below-grade finished area noted)
• Exterior features: Full wood fence; Lot roughly 0.24 acre (75 x 140)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Boiler with radiant heat; Wall-mounted cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Finished basement with storage space and sump pump; Decorative wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $590 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $222k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.0% in Dilworth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton (suburban): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #144 of 301 in MN (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 269 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $221,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.24%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,111
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $49,299
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56529

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,282/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $590

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,853

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $718	-5% $654	+0% $590	+5% $526	+10% $463
Rent	-10% $385	-5% $487	+0% $590	+5% $693	+10% $796
Rate	-1.0pp $703	-0.5pp $647	base $590	+0.5pp $532	+1.0pp $473

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1521 Keystone Cir NE Dilworth, MN	4.0	2.0	2200	$2,600	$1.18	14d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-15
   listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,282 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,401 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: +$119/yr (+$10/mo · 5.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,282
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,496
• − Management: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $3,652
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$876
• After-tax cash flow: $6,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton
• NCES district ID: 2710260
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $54,835
• Composite: 41.14/100
• National rank: #3557
• State rank: #144 of 301 in MN

Livability — Dilworth

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #5975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dilworth, MN
• City population: 4,664
• Population (ZIP): 4,664

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,880 people
• By 2030: 70,881 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 76,865 · +13.2%
• By 2050: 83,205 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 98,719 · +45.4%
• By 2100: 111,657 · +64.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 29% Scottish 6% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Arabic 5% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.2% · R 48.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 16.0pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+4.1 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+8.0 2008: D+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.98%
• Current HPI: 187.1235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $225,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,282 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.