9 Kate Ct · East Quogue, NY 11942

$2,699,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 5,263 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2005 1.38 ac lot $513/sqft · 18% above area Est $2726k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Luxury abounds in the exclusive community of Southampton Pines. This 600 acre natural setting is home to a few hundred luxury estates surrounded by lush greenery. This Magnificent Brick Estate is Situated On 1.4 Ac. Enter into Grand Foyer, Gourmet Kitchen W/ Center Island, Full Bar, Formal Lr W/ Fp, Dining Room, Den, Double sized Office. Master Suite W/ Fp & Master Bath, Upper Level Loft Living Area, 3 Addl. Bedrooms W/ Balconies, 2 Laundry Rooms, Bluestone Patio, Outdoor Cooking, Putting Green, Ig Pool With 12X12 Spa & Waterfalls, Finished Basement with Movie Theater & Gym. Multi Zone Heating & CAC, Three Car Garage. Close to All East End Attractions. WHB Village, D

Key facts

• Master suite
• Bluestone patio
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• FULL BAR
• MASTER SUITE
• UPPER LEVEL LOFT
• BLUESTONE PATIO
• OUTDOOR COOKING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached private parking; Three-car garage
• Utilities: PSEG electric service; Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Three or more levels
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Brick exterior; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Chef's kitchen with granite counters and island
• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms across three or more levels
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Double vanity in primary/ensuite
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating with forced air; Central air conditioning; Two fireplaces
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Cathedral ceilings; Chandelier; Chef's kitchen; Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Finished basement; Partial attic
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $2.70M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($32k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.50M (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.50M (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 10.6% in East Quogue — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $19k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $81k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.62M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $270k; list at $2.70M implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,500,000 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.28%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,725,875
• List price: $2,699,000
• Delta: -0.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-266,217
• Equity at exit: $402,430

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-13,129
• Equity at exit: $233,360

Cash invested: $755,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,154
• Tax from tax record: −$1,775 /mo · $21,301/yr
• Insurance: −$1,125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,250
• Net cashflow: $2,697

Break-even live

Break-even rent $21,587

Max offer price $2,699,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $674,750
• Closing costs: $80,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
151 Chardonnay Dr East Quogue, NY	5.0	4.5	4136	$25,000	$6.04	2d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,699,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,699,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,699,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,699,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,699,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,699,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,699,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,699,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,699,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,699,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $2,699,000 Active 929-char remark
16. 2025-12-25
    price $2,699,000
17. 2025-11-27
    price $2,899,995
18. 2025-09-06
    status Active
19. 2025-08-17
    historical
20. 2024-08-31
    status Active
21. 2024-08-22
    listed $2,999,995 Active
22. 2024-08-15
    historical
23. 2023-08-17
    status Active
24. 2023-08-14
    historical
25. 2023-02-16
    status Active
26. 2023-02-12
    historical
27. 2022-02-19
    listed $2,795,000 Active
28. 2022-01-24
    historical
29. 2021-08-17
    price $2,795,000
30. 2021-05-23
    status Active
31. 2021-05-23
    price $2,975,000
32. 2021-05-21
    historical
33. 2021-01-17
    price $2,695,000
34. 2021-01-06
    price $2,290,000
35. 2020-09-09
    price $2,750,000
36. 2020-01-23
    listed $2,399,000 New
37. 2020-01-05
    historical
38. 2019-06-23
    price $2,299,000
39. 2019-01-05
    listed $2,399,000 New
40. 2018-12-18
    historical
41. 2017-12-22
    status Listing Extended
42. 2017-12-18
    historical
43. 2016-12-17
    price $2,399,000
44. 2016-12-17
    listed $23,990,000 New
45. 2016-11-08
    historical
46. 2016-05-20
    price $2,150,000
47. 2016-02-22
    price $1,999,000
48. 2015-11-11
    listed $2,099,000 New
49. 2014-10-21
    historical
50. 2014-01-02
    listed $2,395,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $21,301 · $1,775/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $33,457 · $2,788/mo
• Expected delta: +$12,156/yr (+$1,013/mo · 57.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $300,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$151,186
• − Property taxes: −$21,301
• − Insurance: −$13,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,000
• − Management: −$24,000
• − Depreciation: −$78,516
• Taxable loss: −$12,498
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,999
• After-tax cash flow: $35,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1320.5% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $2,699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-25 Price Changed $2,699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-27 Price Changed $2,899,995 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-06 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-17 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-31 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-22 Listed $2,999,995 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-17 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-14 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-16 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-19 Listed $2,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-24 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-17 Price Changed $2,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-23 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-23 Price Changed $2,975,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-17 Price Changed $2,695,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-06 Price Changed $2,290,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-09 Price Changed $2,750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-23 Listed $2,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-05 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-23 Price Changed $2,299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-05 Listed $2,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-18 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-22 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-18 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-17 Price Changed $2,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-17 Listed $23,990,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-08 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-20 Price Changed $2,150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-22 Price Changed $1,999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-11 Listed $2,099,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-02 Listed $2,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-21 Listed $2,999,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2002-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $21,301 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.