541 Smithson Ave · Lawrence Park, PA 16511

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,729 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1928 Est $171k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

2 unit , 2 bedroom down stairs , 1 bedroom upstairs. Move in condition. Use as one home or 2 unit rental. Separate gas and electric , Full kitchen and bath upstairs. Updated electrical , furnaces AC, windows, Roof, porch. Off street parking, 2 car garage with electric. Private backyard.

Key facts

• Updated electrical
• Full kitchen
• Private backyard

Tags

• MOVE IN CONDITION
• FULL KITCHEN
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $932 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $466/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#85 in PA, #632 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+.
• Iroquois SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #236 of 539 in PA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $175k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.83%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $171,171
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
525 Smithson Ave	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,617 (-6%)	14mo	$160,000	$99	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $31,134
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $104,072
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16511

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,885 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$356 /mo · $4,277/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $932

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,705

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,031	-5% $982	+0% $932	+5% $883	+10% $833
Rent	-10% $704	-5% $818	+0% $932	+5% $1,046	+10% $1,160
Rate	-1.0pp $1,020	-0.5pp $977	base $932	+0.5pp $887	+1.0pp $841

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$2,886
Total (2 units)			$2,885

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4749 Cliff Dr Erie, PA	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 2007-10-17
   soldstatus $89,500
4. 2003-10-10
   soldstatus $78,000
5. 1979-07-02
   soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,277 · $356/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,277 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$4,277
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,770
• − Management: −$2,770
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $9,035
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,168
• After-tax cash flow: $9,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Iroquois SD
• NCES district ID: 4212210
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $50,338
• Composite: 40.27/100
• National rank: #3766
• State rank: #236 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lawrence Park

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #632

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawrence Park, PA
• Population (ZIP): 11,709

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.06%
• Current HPI: 256.8088
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+297.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $175,000 FSBO.com
• 2007-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records
• 2003-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 1979-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,277 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.