101 Colgan Ave #25 · Santa Rosa, CA 95404

$169,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · Manufactured · 242 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your charming brand-new home, thoughtfully designed with style, comfort, and functionality in mind. Inside, you'll enjoy a well-appointed living space. This home offers 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom with a well with a well equipped kitchen providing a stainless steel gas range, dishwasher and refrigerator, with interior laundry hookups for everyday convenience. Stay comfortable year-round with a heating and AC system. Centrally located near shopping, restaurants, and freeway access, this home is the perfect blend of efficiency, style, and convenience.

Key facts

• Centrally located
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2025

Tags

• WELL EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL GAS RANGE
• INTERIOR LAUNDRY HOOKUPS
• HEATING AND AC SYSTEM
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Colgan park
• Financial info: Land lease amount $975/month
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single wide; New construction
• Construction: Manufacturer: Redman; Make: Park; Skirting: Other
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Hood over range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Slab countertops; Shower stall(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only

🏗️ New construction. The $169,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $155,120.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $640 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $148,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.68%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,120
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Colgan Ave #24	0.00mi	2/1.0	560 (0%)	4mo	$155,000	$277	97

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $11,586
• Equity at exit: $23,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $46,641
• Equity at exit: $13,412

Cash invested: $43,434 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95404

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,327/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $640

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,357

Max offer price $155,120

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $747	-5% $693	+0% $640	+5% $586	+10% $533
Rent	-10% $469	-5% $554	+0% $640	+5% $725	+10% $811
Rate	-1.0pp $718	-0.5pp $679	base $640	+0.5pp $600	+1.0pp $559

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,780
• Closing costs: $4,654
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
147 Colgan Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	623	$1,941	$3.12	14d	3	0.12mi
777 Aston Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	635	$1,749	$2.75	14d	1	0.44mi
2146 Bedford St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,900	$2.64	14d	1	0.50mi
2146 Bedford St Unit 2134-211 Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$2,075	$2.88	14d	1	0.51mi
2111 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,892	$3.09	14d	8	0.59mi
1020 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	890	$2,860	$3.21	14d	27	0.63mi
240 Burt St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	742	$2,563	$3.45	14d	10	0.81mi
445 S E St Unit 20 Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	575	$1,795	$3.12	14d	1	1.02mi
1467 Maple Ave Unit 1467 Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	674	$1,750	$2.60	14d	1	1.25mi
750 Apple Creek Ln Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	748	$2,599	$3.47	14d	16	1.29mi
1018 Bellevue Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$1,874	$1.86	14d	1	1.36mi
420 Mendocino Ave Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	784	$3,923	$5.00	14d	21	1.43mi
2025 Applejack Way Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,750	$3.50	14d	1	1.47mi
724 Morgan St Unit 726b Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,600	$2.67	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2025-09-30
   listed $169,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,689
• − Property taxes: −$2,327
• − Insurance: −$776
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,080
• − Management: −$2,080
• − Depreciation: −$4,513
• Taxable income: $5,539
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,329
• After-tax cash flow: $6,349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Rosa, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,011
• Household income: $105,437
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1663.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -797.65%
• Current HPI: 244.7593
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-30 Listed $169,000 BAREIS