426 Wildwood Dr · Murphy, NC 28906

$149,800

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1962 0.73 ac lot Est $120k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on THREE wooded lots in popular Bear Paw, this 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom cabin offers privacy, peaceful surroundings, and seasonal lake and mountain views. A concrete driveway winds through a beautiful canopy of hardwoods and pines, creating a welcoming approach to the property with both upper and lower-level parking areas for convenience. Relax and unwind on the large screened porch - furniture included! - where you can enjoy the sounds of nature, tranquil wooded scenery, and glimpses of the lake beyond. Inside, the Great Room is filled with rustic mountain charm featuring wood floors, a vaulted wood ceiling, abundant windows, and two sets of glass doors that open to the deck and

Key facts

• Outbuilding
• Recreation room
• Three wooded lots

Tags

• THREE WOODED LOTS
• LARGE SCREENED PORCH
• RUSTIC MOUNTAIN CHARM
• VAULTED WOOD CEILING
• RECREATION ROOM
• OUTBUILDING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Gated community (Bear Paw Resort)

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story cabin; Residential property (Cabin); Located in Bear Paw Resort subdivision; Planned Development zoning
• Construction: Frame construction; Wood siding; Composition roof; Has partial basement
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Wooded lot; Has view; Gated community

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Electric water heater; Wood flooring; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($645/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.6% in Murphy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#292 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cherokee County Schools (rural): math 42% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #90 of 178 in NC (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hiwassee Dam Elementary/Middle (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #249 of 1,410 statewide, top 20%, 120 students, 98% FRL); Hiwassee Dam High (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #427 of 535 statewide, top 81%, 158 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 56% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1130 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cherokee County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $123,894 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.54%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,360
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
196 Cherrywood Dr	0.17mi	2/1.0	720 (+6%)	4mo	$127,500	$177	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-20,902
• Equity at exit: $22,336

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-13,994
• Equity at exit: $12,952

Cash invested: $41,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28906

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Active inventory: 1130
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,239 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $925/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,171

Max offer price $149,800

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $96	+0% $54	+5% $11	+10% $-31
Rent	-10% $-44	-5% $5	+0% $54	+5% $103	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $129	-0.5pp $92	base $54	+0.5pp $15	+1.0pp $-25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,450
• Closing costs: $4,494
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on marketlisting id $149,800 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on marketlisting id $149,800 Pending
3. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
4. 2026-05-08
   listed $149,800 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $925 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,228 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$304/yr (+$25/mo · 32.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,391
• − Property taxes: −$925
• − Insurance: −$749
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,189
• − Management: −$1,189
• − Depreciation: −$4,358
• Taxable loss: −$1,934
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$464
• After-tax cash flow: $1,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cherokee County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700780
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,424
• Composite: 36.91/100
• National rank: #4542
• State rank: #90 of 178 in NC

Livability — Murphy

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #292
• US rank: #12327

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,712

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,672 people
• By 2030: 24,504 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 21,955 · -14.5%
• By 2050: 19,592 · -23.7%
• By 2075: 15,128 · -41.1%
• By 2100: 11,203 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.5) · D 20.8% · R 78.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -38.6pp · 2024: -57.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.5 2020: R+55.1 2016: R+57.0 2012: R+46.2 2008: R+38.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.19%
• Current HPI: 211.1795
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — MLBOR
• 2026-05-08 Listed $149,800 MLBOR

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $925 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.