1217 Ethel Cir NE · Palm Bay, FL 32905

$249,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1977 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home has been well cared for and maintained. Ready to move in condition. New A/C, New Hot Water Heater, New Refrigerator. Large Kitchen with breakfast bar and family room/den in addition to living room. Spacious and private back yard. Utility shed with ramp. Won't last at this price!

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Brand-new roof
• Large open space

Tags

• LARGE OPEN SPACE
• STORAGE SHED
• BRAND-NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with garage door opener (1 vehicle); Off-street parking; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Faces northwest
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Paved city street frontage; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-765/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Riviera Elementary School (math 56% / reading 48%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 696 students, 72% FRL); Stone Magnet Middle School (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #426 of 571 statewide, top 75%, 670 students, 69% FRL); Palm Bay Magnet Senior High School (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,486 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 43% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $250k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,348 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.09%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-50,123
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-70,346
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32905

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,863 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,449/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,944

Max offer price $238,734

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $7	+0% $-64	+5% $-135	+10% $-205
Rent	-10% $-211	-5% $-137	+0% $-64	+5% $10	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $62	-0.5pp $0	base $-64	+0.5pp $-129	+1.0pp $-194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1265 Ethel Cir NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,750	$1.30	15d	1	0.08mi
1264 Dawn St NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,950	$1.66	15d	1	0.10mi
1701 Forest Knoll Dr NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1200	$2,050	$1.71	15d	5	0.13mi
2190 Forest Knoll Dr NE Unit 90-202 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1069	$1,400	$1.31	25d	1	0.13mi
2160 Forest Knoll Dr NE Unit 60-102 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1069	$1,350	$1.26	25d	1	0.15mi
2130 Forest Knoll Dr NE #202 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1069	$1,450	$1.36	25d	1	0.17mi
2100 Forest Knoll Dr NE #202 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1069	$1,600	$1.50	15d	1	0.20mi
3814 Tree Ridge Ln NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.5	1170	$1,500	$1.28	25d	1	0.24mi
1625 Sunny Brook Ln NE Unit G103 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	914	$1,700	$1.86	25d	1	0.28mi
1000 Palm Place Dr NE Palm Bay, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	884	$2,185	$2.47	22d	8	0.28mi
3513 Tree Ridge Ln NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.5	1170	$2,000	$1.71	25d	1	0.29mi
1608 Sunny Brook Ln Palm Bay, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,600	$1.54	25d	6	0.36mi
1497 Krin Ct NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1712	$2,400	$1.40	22d	1	0.37mi
1656 Sunny Brook Ln NE Unit L102 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	914	$1,690	$1.85	22d	1	0.45mi
1625 Par St NE Unit 1104 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$2,100	$2.05	25d	1	0.55mi
1625 Par St NE Unit 1107 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,875	$1.83	25d	1	0.55mi
1625 Par St NE Unit 1206 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,050	$1.70	25d	1	0.55mi
1625 Par St NE Unit 1207 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,025	$1.68	25d	1	0.55mi
1605 Par St NE Unit 3204 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,000	$1.66	25d	1	0.58mi
1605 Par St NE Unit 3102 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$2,100	$2.05	25d	1	0.58mi
1605 Par St NE Unit 3202 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,300	$1.90	25d	1	0.58mi
1635 Par St NE Unit 2103 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$2,100	$2.05	25d	1	0.60mi
1635 Par St NE Unit 2203 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,300	$1.90	25d	1	0.60mi
1625 Par St NE Unit 1203 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,075	$1.72	25d	1	0.60mi
1625 Par St NE Unit 1205 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,300	$1.90	25d	1	0.60mi
1687 Avery Rd NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	876	$1,800	$2.05	25d	1	0.61mi
1327 Cherry Hills Rd NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1706	$2,800	$1.64	15d	1	0.70mi
188 Hidden Woods Pl Melbourne, FL	3.0	2.5	1648	$2,100	$1.27	25d	1	0.72mi
1501 Harvard Cir Melbourne, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$2,000	$1.86	25d	3	0.73mi
1300 Arlington Ln NE #125 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.5	1140	$1,500	$1.32	20d	1	0.74mi
917 Castleford Ave NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1604	$2,150	$1.34	25d	1	0.77mi
3016 Pinewood Dr NE Palm Bay, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,103	$1.38	25d	1	0.82mi
1907 Cleveland St NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,985	$1.50	25d	1	0.88mi
1245 Palm Bay Rd Palm Bay, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	807	$1,425	$1.76	25d	6	0.89mi
890 Luminary Cir #103 Melbourne, FL	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,800	$1.41	15d	1	0.89mi
4001 Pinewood Dr NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1036	$1,269	$1.22	25d	5	0.90mi
2106 Tarrytown Ln NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,900	$1.48	15d	1	0.93mi
2152 Spring Creek Cir NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1465	$2,249	$1.54	25d	1	0.94mi
1411 Sheafe Ave NE #102 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	1.0	1156	$1,550	$1.34	25d	1	0.94mi
1880 Mogra Cir NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1090	$1,899	$1.74	15d	6	0.94mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,999 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,999 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,999 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,999 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,999 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,999 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,999 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,999 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $249,999 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,999 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-01
    listed $249,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,449 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$626/yr (+$52/mo · 43.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,449
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,789
• − Management: −$1,789
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,191
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,246
• After-tax cash flow: $481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,792
• Household income: $56,411
• Rent vs Own: 44.0% rent · 56.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1962.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.59%
• Current HPI: 309.8748
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+529.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $249,999 SCMLS
• 2017-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2017-02-17 Sold (MLS) $115,000 SCMLS
• 2017-01-27 Listed $119,000 SCMLS
• 2013-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2013-06-19 Sold (MLS) $73,000 SCMLS
• 2013-05-12 Listed $73,500 SCMLS
• 1996-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1977-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $39,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,449 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.