1500 Palm Valley Dr Dr W #19 · Palm Valley, TX 78552

$137,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1973 $91/sqft · 12% below area Est $156k · 12% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the city of Palm Valley and Harlingen Country Club area, this 2 bedroom 2 bathroom condo has just gotten a facelift. The entire unit has been painted and professionally cleaned. French doors open to the pool and patio area. Tile flooring is throughout an open floor plan. The kitchen is open to the dining area and living areas. The second living area could double as an office or easily be converted to a 3rd bedroom. A new AC was recently installed. All of the kitchen appliances convey plus a stackable washer and dryer. A 2 car detached garage goes with the unit.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Kitchen appliances
• French doors

Tags

• FRENCH DOORS
• POOL AND PATIO
• TILE FLOORING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• STACKABLE WASHER AND DRYER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $137k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#285 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harlingen CISD (urban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #647 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $947 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,670 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.91%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,865
• List price: $137,000
• Delta: -12.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5113 Doral Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,454 (-3%)	3mo	$238,000	$164	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-10,533
• Equity at exit: $20,427

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-5,561
• Equity at exit: $11,845

Cash invested: $38,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78552

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 534
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,520 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,069/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,200

Max offer price $137,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $330	-5% $292	+0% $253	+5% $214	+10% $175
Rent	-10% $133	-5% $193	+0% $253	+5% $313	+10% $373
Rate	-1.0pp $322	-0.5pp $288	base $253	+0.5pp $217	+1.0pp $181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,250
• Closing costs: $4,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1500 Palm Valley Dr W #12 Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1625	$1,350	$0.83	14d	1	0.05mi
1716 Palm Valley Dr W Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1180	$1,450	$1.23	14d	1	0.12mi
1719 Brazo Cir Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	2072	$1,700	$0.82	14d	1	0.13mi
5408 Guava Dr Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1660	$1,400	$0.84	14d	1	0.30mi
609 Inverary Dr Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1798	$2,000	$1.11	14d	1	0.62mi
5108 Manana Cir Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$1,900	$1.10	14d	1	0.66mi
5611 La Estrella Cir Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	2218	$2,295	$1.03	14d	1	0.71mi
175 Heather Dr Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,795	$1.50	14d	1	0.78mi
125 El Cielo Cir Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	2208	$1,800	$0.82	44d	1	0.91mi
5316 Palm Valley Dr S Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	2090	$2,100	$1.00	44d	1	0.95mi
8822 Albatross St Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,100	$1.30	22d	1	1.02mi
23861 Ellie Ln Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,650	$1.35	22d	1	1.12mi
1007 El Paso Cir Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,600	$1.33	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $137,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $137,000 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $137,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $137,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $137,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $137,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $137,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $137,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $137,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $137,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-03-21
    price $137,000 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Located in the city of Palm Valley and Harlingen Country Club area, this 2 bedroom 2 bathroom condo has just gotten a facelift. The entire unit has been painted and professionally cleaned. French doors open to the pool and patio area. Tile flooring is throughout an open floor plan. The kitchen is open to the dining area and living areas. The second living area could double as an office or easily be converted to a 3rd bedroom. A new AC was recently installed. All of the kitchen appliances convey plus a stackable washer and dryer. A 2 car detached garage goes with the unit.

16. 2026-02-23
    listed $140,000 Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Located in the city of Palm Valley and Harlingen Country Club area, this 2 bedroom 2 bathroom condo has just gotten a facelift. The entire unit has been painted and professionally cleaned. French doors open to the pool and patio area. Tile flooring is throughout an open floor plan. The kitchen is open to the dining area and living areas. The second living area could double as an office or easily be converted to a 3rd bedroom. A new AC was recently installed. All of the kitchen appliances convey plus a stackable washer and dryer. A 2 car detached garage goes with the unit.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,069 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,507 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: +$438/yr (+$37/mo · 21.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,674
• − Property taxes: −$2,069
• − Insurance: −$685
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,459
• − Management: −$1,459
• − Depreciation: −$3,985
• Taxable income: $907
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$218
• After-tax cash flow: $2,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlingen CISD
• NCES district ID: 4822530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,182
• Composite: 24.94/100
• National rank: #7566
• State rank: #647 of 826 in TX

Livability — Palm Valley

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #6600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Valley, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 41,277
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,332
• Household income: $69,811
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 31% White 16% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.61%
• Current HPI: 197.1906
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.87%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $137,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $140,000 RGVMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,069 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.