2616 Birmingham Ave · Dallas, TX 75215

$309,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,800 sqft · Land · 47 Days on market

Built 2026 6,450 sqft lot $172/sqft · 9% below area Est $339k · 9% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Qualified buyers may be eligible for the Wells Fargo Homebuyer Access! Grant, offering $10, 000 toward your down payment no repayment required. Income limit: up to 120% of area median income (AMI) Grant automatically applied during loan process (no separate application) Can be combined with other down payment or closing cost programs This is a great opportunity for income-qualified buyers to make homeownership more affordable. Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath modern contemporary home offering approximately 1,800 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Showcasing a striking exterior with sleek architectural lines, this residence features an open-concept floor plan filled with natural light, expansive windows, and a refined minimalistic interior with high-end finishes throughout. The stylish kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living and dining areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests or a home office. Conveniently located just 7 minutes from Downtown Dallas with quick access to dining, shopping, and entertainment.

Key facts

• 6,450 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($830/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr Martin Luther King Jr Arts Academy (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 452 students, 93% FRL); Billy Earl Dade Middle (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 636 students, 100% FRL); James Madison H S (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 359 students, 96% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 247 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,453/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 1464% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $245,325 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.96%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,547
• List price: $309,000
• Delta: -8.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.79% appreciation · 7.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $17,664
• Equity at exit: $102,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $122,920
• Equity at exit: $133,123

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75215

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 247
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,453 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,436/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,366

Max offer price $309,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $244	-5% $157	+0% $69	+5% $-18	+10% $-106
Rent	-10% $-125	-5% $-28	+0% $69	+5% $166	+10% $263
Rate	-1.0pp $225	-0.5pp $148	base $69	+0.5pp $-11	+1.0pp $-92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2507 Birmingham Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	1516	$2,500	$1.65	26d	1	0.14mi
3502 Edgewood St Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,523	$1.35	4d	1	0.27mi
2847 Metropolitan Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0	1344	$2,050	$1.53	24d	1	0.34mi
3521 S Harwood St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	1750	$2,700	$1.54	5d	1	0.45mi
3413 Wendelkin St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,650	$1.54	4d	1	0.50mi
3308 Birmingham Ave Unit 7 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1287	$2,125	$1.65	17d	1	0.63mi
3308 Birmingham Ave Unit 6 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1341	$2,175	$1.62	18d	1	0.63mi
3308 Birmingham Ave Unit 1 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1451	$2,275	$1.57	26d	1	0.63mi
3308 Birmingham Ave Unit 11 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1505	$2,375	$1.58	45d	1	0.63mi
3308 Birmingham Ave Unit 03 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1451	$2,275	$1.57	45d	1	0.63mi
3915 Coolidge St Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1416	$2,100	$1.48	45d	1	0.70mi
3609 Cleveland St Dallas, TX	4.0	2.5	1500	$2,700	$1.80	9d	1	0.79mi
4024 Colonial Ave Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,400	$1.54	26d	1	0.80mi
2406 Merlin St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,500	$1.25	9d	1	0.83mi
2618 Carpenter Ave Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	2050	$3,200	$1.56	45d	1	0.84mi
3230 Elihu St #5 Dallas, TX	2.0	3.5	1400	$2,700	$1.93	45d	1	0.85mi
3230 Elihu St #2 Dallas, TX	2.0	3.5	1400	$2,300	$1.64	45d	1	0.85mi
3331 Spring Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,200	$1.33	9d	1	0.87mi
3331 Spring Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,200	$1.33	26d	1	0.87mi
2408 Meyers St Unit 204 Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	2375	$770	$0.32	5d	1	0.87mi
2312 Stoneman St Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	2106	$3,100	$1.47	6d	1	0.89mi
3523 Herrling St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,800	$1.18	18d	1	0.91mi
2714 Hector St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1233	$2,100	$1.70	26d	1	1.02mi
4503 Bradshaw St Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1263	$1,600	$1.27	9d	1	1.05mi
1900 S Ervay St Dallas, TX	2.0	3.0	1302	$3,700	$2.84	45d	1	1.16mi
1713 Herald St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2142	$2,300	$1.07	9d	1	1.17mi
1711 Herald St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2140	$2,350	$1.10	45d	1	1.17mi
1874 Beaumont St Dallas, TX	4.0	5.0	2578	$4,900	$1.90	45d	1	1.18mi
1512 Seegar St Unit 1508 Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	2003	$3,250	$1.62	45d	1	1.18mi
3726 Copeland St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,680	$1.29	1d	1	1.18mi
1508 Seegar St Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	1966	$3,124	$1.59	16d	9	1.19mi
3619 York St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,714	$1.32	1d	1	1.24mi
4220 Hamilton Ave Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1692	$2,350	$1.39	45d	1	1.25mi
5000 Linder Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1327	$1,950	$1.47	45d	1	1.26mi
1100 Corinth St Dallas, TX	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.5	1572	$3,595	$2.29	45d	10	1.27mi
3801 Carpenter Ave Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1454	$2,400	$1.65	45d	1	1.27mi
1805 Browder St #103 Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	2358	$8,000	$3.39	45d	1	1.29mi
1805 Browder St Unit 1019612P Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	2357	$6,844	$2.90	1d	1	1.29mi
1514 Washington St Unit 105 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1404	$2,950	$2.10	9d	1	1.31mi
2840 Oakdale St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,900	$1.38	45d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 1201-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1201 chars)

   Qualified buyers may be eligible for the Wells Fargo Homebuyer Access! Grant, offering $10, 000 toward your down payment no repayment required. Income limit: up to 120% of area median income (AMI) Grant automatically applied during loan process (no separate application) Can be combined with other down payment or closing cost programs This is a great opportunity for income-qualified buyers to make homeownership more affordable. Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath modern contemporary home offering approximately 1,800 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Showcasing a striking exterior with sleek architectural lines, this residence features an open-concept floor plan filled with natural light, expansive windows, and a refined minimalistic interior with high-end finishes throughout. The stylish kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living and dining areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests or a home office. Conveniently located just 7 minutes from Downtown Dallas with quick access to dining, shopping, and entertainment.

2. 2026-04-27
   price $309,000 1201-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1201 chars)

   Qualified buyers may be eligible for the Wells Fargo Homebuyer Access! Grant, offering $10, 000 toward your down payment no repayment required. Income limit: up to 120% of area median income (AMI) Grant automatically applied during loan process (no separate application) Can be combined with other down payment or closing cost programs This is a great opportunity for income-qualified buyers to make homeownership more affordable. Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath modern contemporary home offering approximately 1,800 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Showcasing a striking exterior with sleek architectural lines, this residence features an open-concept floor plan filled with natural light, expansive windows, and a refined minimalistic interior with high-end finishes throughout. The stylish kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living and dining areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests or a home office. Conveniently located just 7 minutes from Downtown Dallas with quick access to dining, shopping, and entertainment.

3. 2026-04-02
   listed $314,900 Active 1201-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1201 chars)

   Qualified buyers may be eligible for the Wells Fargo Homebuyer Access! Grant, offering $10, 000 toward your down payment no repayment required. Income limit: up to 120% of area median income (AMI) Grant automatically applied during loan process (no separate application) Can be combined with other down payment or closing cost programs This is a great opportunity for income-qualified buyers to make homeownership more affordable. Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath modern contemporary home offering approximately 1,800 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Showcasing a striking exterior with sleek architectural lines, this residence features an open-concept floor plan filled with natural light, expansive windows, and a refined minimalistic interior with high-end finishes throughout. The stylish kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living and dining areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests or a home office. Conveniently located just 7 minutes from Downtown Dallas with quick access to dining, shopping, and entertainment.

4. 2026-03-31
   historical
5. 2026-03-17
   price $328,000
6. 2026-03-02
   price $335,000
7. 2026-02-19
   price $339,000
8. 2026-01-16
   listed $345,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,436 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,655 · $471/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,218/yr (+$352/mo · 293.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$1,436
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,355
• − Management: −$2,355
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$4,550
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,092
• After-tax cash flow: $1,923/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #1380

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dallas, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 1,168,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,895
• Household income: $45,557
• Rent vs Own: 61.8% rent · 38.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1464.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% White 11% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 26%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Current HPI: 224.2955
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.19%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $309,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $314,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $328,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $335,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $339,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $345,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,436 · +28.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.