440 SE Skipper Ln · Port St. Lucie, FL 34983

$276,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,738 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1977 10,000 sqft lot Est $346k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable CBS home with good floor plan. With Family Room and 3rd Full Bath off covered screened in patio for your next family get together or future swimming pool. Other features include garage, upgraded Primary Bathroom, and hurricane shutters.

Key facts

• Hurricane shutters
• 3rd full bath
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• 3RD FULL BATH
• COVERED SCREENED IN PATIO
• UPGRADED PRIMARY BATHROOM
• HURRICANE SHUTTERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed (no restrictions)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with one covered space; Garage door opener; Circular driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces northeast
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Resale property
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Screened porch; Fence; Outdoor lighting; Room for pool; Storm/security shutters; Smoke detector(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: At least one bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Bedroom on main level; Entrance foyer; First-floor entry; Garden/roman tub; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds; Sliding windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $276k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($379/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 358 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,626 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $345,862
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
434 SE Sunnydale Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,734 (-0%)	2mo	$250,000	$144	90
417 SE Tranquilla Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,753 (+1%)	8mo	$340,000	$194	70
519 SE Calmoso Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,863 (+7%)	10mo	$380,000	$204	68
667 SE Harborview Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,563 (-10%)	4mo	$465,000	$298	67
777 SE Arton Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-8%)	8mo	$537,000	$334	63
208 SE Verada Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,648 (-5%)	8mo	$325,000	$197	60
205 NE Ardsley Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,729 (-0%)	4mo	$300,000	$174	60
289 SE Verada Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,974 (+14%)	9mo	$359,900	$182	58
236 SE Prima Vista Blvd SE	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,557 (-10%)	4mo	$310,000	$199	57
192 NE Caprona Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-11%)	8mo	$345,000	$224	47
503 NE Solida Cir	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-13%)	7mo	$380,000	$250	40
843 SE Carnival Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,986 (+14%)	4mo	$370,000	$186	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-46,427
• Equity at exit: $41,152

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-52,628
• Equity at exit: $23,863

Cash invested: $77,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34983

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,636 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,447
• Tax from tax record: −$489 /mo · $5,864/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,596

Max offer price $276,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $110	+0% $32	+5% $-47	+10% $-125
Rent	-10% $-177	-5% $-73	+0% $32	+5% $136	+10% $240
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $102	base $32	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,000
• Closing costs: $8,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
336 SE Tranquilla Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	1412	$2,700	$1.91	15d	1	0.34mi
730 SE White Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1386	$10,000	$7.22	25d	1	0.37mi
400 NW Prima Vista Blvd Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1566	$2,300	$1.47	25d	1	0.46mi
107 SE Lucero Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1326	$2,150	$1.62	23d	1	0.65mi
762 SE River Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	2032	$11,000	$5.41	25d	1	0.68mi
805 SE Cavern Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1732	$2,500	$1.44	25d	1	0.68mi
201 NE Midfield Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1389	$2,500	$1.80	25d	1	0.74mi
151 SE Castana Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1382	$2,500	$1.81	25d	1	0.76mi
116 Prima Vista Blvd Unit A Port St. Lucie, FL	3.0	1.0	1314	$2,600	$1.98	25d	1	0.83mi
154 SE Selva Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1503	$3,000	$2.00	25d	1	0.85mi
787 SE Evergreen Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	2008	$2,700	$1.34	25d	1	0.86mi
160 NE Bracken Rd Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1166	$2,200	$1.89	23d	1	0.87mi
160 NE Bracken Rd Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1166	$2,200	$1.89	25d	1	0.87mi
160 SE Duxbury Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.5	1521	$2,700	$1.78	25d	1	0.97mi
216 NE Mainsail St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,550	$1.68	23d	1	0.99mi
121 SE Juper Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	25d	1	1.07mi
310 Shady Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	2039	$2,800	$1.37	25d	1	1.15mi
642 SW Bolin Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1166	$2,150	$1.84	23d	1	1.16mi
173 SE Fallon Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1281	$2,400	$1.87	15d	1	1.31mi
562 SE Walters Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1833	$2,700	$1.47	15d	1	1.33mi
726 SW Byron St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	2058	$2,600	$1.26	25d	1	1.42mi
249 NE Glentry Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1563	$2,800	$1.79	25d	1	1.45mi
351 SW Buswell Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1234	$2,200	$1.78	15d	1	1.47mi
325 NW Ferris Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,900	$1.73	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $276,000 Pending 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $276,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $276,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $276,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $276,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $276,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $290,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $290,000 Pending 28 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $290,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $290,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-05-04
    listed $290,000 Active
12. 2021-08-10
    soldstatus $279,000
13. 1978-01-01
    soldstatus $43,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,864 · $489/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,864 · $489/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,460
• − Property taxes: −$5,864
• − Insurance: −$1,380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,531
• − Management: −$2,531
• − Depreciation: −$8,029
• Taxable loss: −$4,160
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$998
• After-tax cash flow: $1,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,001
• Household income: $75,489
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 843.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 18% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.28%
• Current HPI: 407.6341
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.53%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+562.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $290,000 MARMLS
• 2021-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $279,000 Public Records
• 1978-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,864 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.