28307 Chelsea Garden Way · Punta Gorda, FL 33955

$359,499

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,032 sqft · Land · 22 Days on market

Built 2025 7,971 sqft lot $303/mo HOA · 12% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged, AI generated or rendered. THIS HOME IS READY FOR YOU NOW!! This single-story home offers versatile living, with an open design among the dining room, kitchen and family room, which lead to a covered lanai for outdoor experiences. Surrounding the space are all four bedrooms, including the lavish owner’s suite with an adjoining bathroom and a large walk-in closet. A versatile two-car garage completes the home. Discover the enchanting new community of Willow in Punta Gorda, where unparalleled resort-style amenities meet effortless coastal living just minutes from Charlotte Harbor. Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to

Key facts

• Covered lanai
• Large walk-in closet
• Lavish owners suite

Tags

• COVERED LANAI
• LAVISH OWNERS SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $359k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-578 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (28.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.8% in Punta Gorda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#225 in FL, #3,567 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: East Elementary School (math 67% / reading 68%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 761 students, 52% FRL); Punta Gorda Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,120 students, 41% FRL); Charlotte High School (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,994 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1490 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $256,434 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.89%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-94,944
• Equity at exit: $53,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-129,609
• Equity at exit: $31,083

Cash invested: $100,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33955

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 1490
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,564 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,885
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,187/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$303
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,296

Max offer price $257,424

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-374	-5% $-476	+0% $-578	+5% $-680	+10% $-781
Rent	-10% $-780	-5% $-679	+0% $-578	+5% $-477	+10% $-375
Rate	-1.0pp $-397	-0.5pp $-486	base $-578	+0.5pp $-671	+1.0pp $-766

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,875
• Closing costs: $10,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11795 Cloverly Ln Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.5	2028	$2,075	$1.02	23d	1	0.42mi
11812 Cloverly Ln Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.5	1875	$2,150	$1.15	23d	1	0.45mi
11827 Cloverly Ln Punta Gorda, FL	5.0	2.5	2088	$2,095	$1.00	23d	1	0.48mi
12378 Paramount Dr Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	3.0	1836	$2,295	$1.25	23d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $303 · $3,636/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $359,499
3. 2026-03-19
   listed $369,499 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,187 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,187 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,772
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,138
• − Property taxes: −$3,187
• − Insurance: −$1,797
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,462
• − Management: −$2,462
• − HOA: −$3,636
• − Depreciation: −$10,458
• Taxable loss: −$13,368
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,208
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,726/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charlotte
• NCES district ID: 1200240
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,864
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2586
• State rank: #22 of 73 in FL

Livability — Punta Gorda

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #225
• US rank: #3567

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Charlotte County · 196,994 people
• City population: 68,831
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,399
• Household income: $76,943
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 226.0

Population outlook (Charlotte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,646 people
• By 2030: 210,507 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 230,857 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 247,148 · +24.4%
• By 2075: 281,777 · +41.8%
• By 2100: 293,609 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charlotte

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.7% · R 66.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+26.6 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+14.3 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.71%
• Current HPI: 242.9043
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $359,499 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $369,499 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+34.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,187 · +34.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.