854 1 Ave S · Horace, ND 58047

$329,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,693 sqft · Other · 30 Days on market

Built 2025 6,943 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Kitchen appliances
• Sod yard

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETRY
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• SOD YARD
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City sewer (connected); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential split-entry (bi-level) home; New construction; Entry level: Split entry
• Construction: Poured concrete foundation; Built by Thomsen Homes, LLC
• Exterior features: Stone and vinyl exterior; Lot approximately 6,943 square feet (164 x 44 x 137)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on upper level; Includes microwave, range, dishwasher, refrigerator, disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (bedrooms located on upper and lower levels)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (one on upper level, one on lower level)
• Interior features: Finished basement; Appliances: Dishwasher, Disposal, Electric water heater, Microwave, Range, Refrigerator; Central air; Forced air heating
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on lower level; Utility room on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Horace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#29 in ND, #4,718 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• West Fargo 6 (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #26 of 53 in ND (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Horace High School (456 students, 11% FRL).
• Market conditions: 458 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,218 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (410 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $262,078 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-59,202
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-59,023
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58047

• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,621 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,501/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $-89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,734

Max offer price $314,208

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $4	+0% $-89	+5% $-183	+10% $-276
Rent	-10% $-296	-5% $-193	+0% $-89	+5% $14	+10% $118
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $-5	base $-89	+0.5pp $-175	+1.0pp $-262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
806 United Dr Unit 1 Horace, ND	4.0	3.0	1856	$2,275	$1.23	14d	1	0.10mi
7994 Jacks Way Horace, ND	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	898	$1,599	$1.78	14d	16	0.92mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,999 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,999 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,999 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,999 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $329,999 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $329,999 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $334,873 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $334,873 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $334,873 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $334,873 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $334,873 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $334,873 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $334,873 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $334,873 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $334,873 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $334,873 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    historical
18. 2026-05-19
    listed $334,873 Active
19. 2026-05-06
    price $334,873
20. 2026-02-14
    price $331,371
21. 2026-02-14
    price $334,004
22. 2025-11-05
    listed $320,525 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,501 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,501 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$3,501
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,516
• − Management: −$2,516
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$6,819
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,636
• After-tax cash flow: $564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Fargo 6
• NCES district ID: 3819410
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,914
• Composite: 36.6/100
• National rank: #4628
• State rank: #26 of 53 in ND

Livability — Horace

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #4718

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horace, ND
• County: Cass County · 177,143 people
• City population: 5,636
• Metro: Fargo, ND-MN
• Population (ZIP): 5,636
• Household income: $142,361
• Rent vs Own: 4.7% rent · 95.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 8.0

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,771 people
• By 2030: 251,835 · +12.5%
• By 2040: 311,816 · +39.3%
• By 2050: 378,694 · +69.2%
• By 2075: 571,386 · +155.3%
• By 2100: 769,727 · +244.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 26% Scotch-Irish 7% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 44.9% · R 53.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+2.7 2016: R+10.7 2012: R+3.0 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.83%
• Current HPI: 178.7028
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fargo, ND-MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+4.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $334,873 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $334,873 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $331,371 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $334,004 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Listed $320,525 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+83.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,501 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.