1280 Ophelia Rd · Forney, TX 75126

$269,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 103 Days on market

Built 2017 5,663 sqft lot $165/sqft · 10% below area Est $300k · 10% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute as a button and move in ready! This 4 bedroom home has been freshly painted and is waiting for you! Conveniently located to highways, restaurants and shopping, this home is also down the block from the community pool. The well thought out floor plan flows seamlessly from one room to the other with plenty of space for entertaining or just relaxing in your room with a good book. The walk in closet in the primary bedroom is huge, don't miss checking that out! Schedule your showing, you will know it's home the minute that you walk in!!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Walk in closet
• Move in ready

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• WELL THOUGHT OUT FLOOR PLAN
• WALK IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-269 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnson El (math 57% / reading 50%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 694 students, 36% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,373 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.27%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,566
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -9.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2465 Willard Way	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,627 (-0%)	5mo	$289,990	$178	79
3210 Emerson Rd	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-2%)	4mo	$253,990	$159	69
3340 Emerson Rd	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,590 (-3%)	10mo	$260,000	$164	65
3225 Stanley St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,801 (+10%)	1mo	$269,900	$150	52
4033 Gabi Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,521 (-7%)	6mo	$235,000	$155	50
3056 Glazner Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,707 (+5%)	5mo	$239,900	$141	50
2029 Karsen Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-8%)	5mo	$249,990	$167	49
4117 Plateau Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,832 (+12%)	4mo	$329,540	$180	40
2034 Carriage Rd	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,817 (+11%)	8mo	$264,900	$146	38
4303 Brenton Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,832 (+12%)	6mo	$329,490	$180	37
4200 Plateau Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,832 (+12%)	4mo	$320,990	$175	37
4139 Plateau Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,832 (+12%)	10mo	$335,540	$183	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-64,423
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-92,263
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,415 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$607 /mo · $7,288/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,756

Max offer price $222,373

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-116	-5% $-193	+0% $-269	+5% $-345	+10% $-422
Rent	-10% $-460	-5% $-364	+0% $-269	+5% $-174	+10% $-78
Rate	-1.0pp $-133	-0.5pp $-200	base $-269	+0.5pp $-339	+1.0pp $-410

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1450 Arabella Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,250	$1.38	14d	1	0.13mi
2850 Dusty Rd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2115	$2,450	$1.16	21d	1	0.26mi
3137 Grimaldo Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,995	$1.27	14d	1	0.47mi
3137 Grimaldo Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,195	$1.38	26d	1	0.47mi
3001 Glazner Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,350	$1.56	45d	1	0.58mi
3324 Perman Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,125	$1.23	14d	1	0.60mi
3012 Glazner Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1984	$2,195	$1.11	5d	1	0.62mi
4162 Rim Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,500	$1.30	45d	1	0.64mi
4186 Rim Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2060	$2,750	$1.33	45d	1	0.66mi
2035 Karsen Ln Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$2,125	$1.34	0d	1	0.66mi
4170 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$3,573	$1.70	45d	1	0.70mi
4178 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$3,573	$1.95	46d	1	0.70mi
4198 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$3,573	$1.95	45d	1	0.73mi
4005 Waterford Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1852	$2,350	$1.27	45d	1	0.86mi
4306 Paxton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,600	$1.42	45d	1	0.86mi
2038 Allyson Dr Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	0.87mi
2040 Shawnee Trl Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,000	$1.09	17d	1	0.92mi
2140 Florence Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2032	$2,600	$1.28	45d	1	1.09mi
2503 Blue Oasis Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2127	$2,499	$1.17	9d	1	1.09mi
2048 Lake Trail Dr Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,300	$1.21	0d	1	1.12mi
2048 Lake Trail Dr Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1908	$2,250	$1.18	4d	1	1.12mi
2015 Angel Way Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,671	$1.19	24d	1	1.13mi
1308 Middlebrooks Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,650	$1.19	46d	1	1.19mi
4009 Freedom St Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,800	$1.27	46d	1	1.27mi
4032 Eagle Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,775	$1.22	6d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,900 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,900 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,900 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $269,900 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Cute as a button and move in ready! This 4 bedroom home has been freshly painted and is waiting for you! Conveniently located to highways, restaurants and shopping, this home is also down the block from the community pool. The well thought out floor plan flows seamlessly from one room to the other with plenty of space for entertaining or just relaxing in your room with a good book. The walk in closet in the primary bedroom is huge, don't miss checking that out! Schedule your showing, you will know it's home the minute that you walk in!!

17. 2026-03-10
    listed $274,900 Active 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Cute as a button and move in ready! This 4 bedroom home has been freshly painted and is waiting for you! Conveniently located to highways, restaurants and shopping, this home is also down the block from the community pool. The well thought out floor plan flows seamlessly from one room to the other with plenty of space for entertaining or just relaxing in your room with a good book. The walk in closet in the primary bedroom is huge, don't miss checking that out! Schedule your showing, you will know it's home the minute that you walk in!!

18. 2019-09-11
    soldstatus
19. 2019-09-09
    soldstatus Sold 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Charming home in the fantastic Vintage Meadows neighborhood. Home features new wood laminate flooring throughout living areas, personal farm house touches in the upgraded hall bath and lots of space to entertain in the open living area. Large windows provide natural light and the backyard has plenty of room to play! Kitchen island stays with the home along with the stainless steel kitchen appliances. A full no contract Vivint smart home security system is also included. Walk to the community pool at the end of the street or the grassy play area. Conveniently located off of Highway 20 and close to major highways for easy access. Highly rated Forney school district. A must see!!

20. 2019-09-03
    status Pending 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Charming home in the fantastic Vintage Meadows neighborhood. Home features new wood laminate flooring throughout living areas, personal farm house touches in the upgraded hall bath and lots of space to entertain in the open living area. Large windows provide natural light and the backyard has plenty of room to play! Kitchen island stays with the home along with the stainless steel kitchen appliances. A full no contract Vivint smart home security system is also included. Walk to the community pool at the end of the street or the grassy play area. Conveniently located off of Highway 20 and close to major highways for easy access. Highly rated Forney school district. A must see!!

21. 2019-08-28
    historical Active Option Contract 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Charming home in the fantastic Vintage Meadows neighborhood. Home features new wood laminate flooring throughout living areas, personal farm house touches in the upgraded hall bath and lots of space to entertain in the open living area. Large windows provide natural light and the backyard has plenty of room to play! Kitchen island stays with the home along with the stainless steel kitchen appliances. A full no contract Vivint smart home security system is also included. Walk to the community pool at the end of the street or the grassy play area. Conveniently located off of Highway 20 and close to major highways for easy access. Highly rated Forney school district. A must see!!

22. 2019-08-24
    price $213,000 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Charming home in the fantastic Vintage Meadows neighborhood. Home features new wood laminate flooring throughout living areas, personal farm house touches in the upgraded hall bath and lots of space to entertain in the open living area. Large windows provide natural light and the backyard has plenty of room to play! Kitchen island stays with the home along with the stainless steel kitchen appliances. A full no contract Vivint smart home security system is also included. Walk to the community pool at the end of the street or the grassy play area. Conveniently located off of Highway 20 and close to major highways for easy access. Highly rated Forney school district. A must see!!

23. 2019-08-07
    price $216,000 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Charming home in the fantastic Vintage Meadows neighborhood. Home features new wood laminate flooring throughout living areas, personal farm house touches in the upgraded hall bath and lots of space to entertain in the open living area. Large windows provide natural light and the backyard has plenty of room to play! Kitchen island stays with the home along with the stainless steel kitchen appliances. A full no contract Vivint smart home security system is also included. Walk to the community pool at the end of the street or the grassy play area. Conveniently located off of Highway 20 and close to major highways for easy access. Highly rated Forney school district. A must see!!

24. 2019-07-23
    price $218,000 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Charming home in the fantastic Vintage Meadows neighborhood. Home features new wood laminate flooring throughout living areas, personal farm house touches in the upgraded hall bath and lots of space to entertain in the open living area. Large windows provide natural light and the backyard has plenty of room to play! Kitchen island stays with the home along with the stainless steel kitchen appliances. A full no contract Vivint smart home security system is also included. Walk to the community pool at the end of the street or the grassy play area. Conveniently located off of Highway 20 and close to major highways for easy access. Highly rated Forney school district. A must see!!

25. 2019-06-26
    listed $219,000 Active 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Charming home in the fantastic Vintage Meadows neighborhood. Home features new wood laminate flooring throughout living areas, personal farm house touches in the upgraded hall bath and lots of space to entertain in the open living area. Large windows provide natural light and the backyard has plenty of room to play! Kitchen island stays with the home along with the stainless steel kitchen appliances. A full no contract Vivint smart home security system is also included. Walk to the community pool at the end of the street or the grassy play area. Conveniently located off of Highway 20 and close to major highways for easy access. Highly rated Forney school district. A must see!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,288 · $607/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,288 · $607/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,984
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$7,288
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,319
• − Management: −$2,319
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$7,765
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,864
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+23.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $269,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $274,900 NTREIS
• 2019-09-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-09-09 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-09-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2019-08-28 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2019-08-24 Price Changed $213,000 NTREIS
• 2019-08-07 Price Changed $216,000 NTREIS
• 2019-07-23 Price Changed $218,000 NTREIS
• 2019-06-26 Listed $219,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+35.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,288 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.