2962 Vineyards Pkwy #2 · Branson, MO 65616

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,147 sqft · Condo public records · 217 Days on market

Built 2007 $201/sqft · at area comps Est $223k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this fully furnished 3-bed, 2-bath condo located in the desirable Vineyard Condominiums subdivision! With over 1,100 square feet of living space and a private deck, this unit is the perfect escape. Currently operating as an approved short-term rental. CLOSE TO TABLE ROCK LAKE AND THE BRANSON STRIP

Key facts

• Private deck
• Built 2007
• Listed 216 days

Tags

• PRIVATE DECK
• APPROVED SHORT-TERM RENTAL
• CLOSE TO TABLE ROCK LAKE
• CLOSE TO BRANSON STRIP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($459/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.6% in Branson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #2,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Ridge Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 503 students, 65% FRL); Branson Jr. High (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #81 of 391 statewide, top 21%, 724 students, 51% FRL); Branson High (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #145 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,423 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1061 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,882 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.71%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,775
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: 3.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-35,097
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-28,504
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65616

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 1061
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,839 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,349/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,790

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $103	+0% $38	+5% $-27	+10% $-92
Rent	-10% $-107	-5% $-34	+0% $38	+5% $111	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $97	base $38	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2905 Vineyards Pkwy #5 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,850	$1.61	45d	1	0.05mi
2907 Vineyards Pkwy #2 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,850	$1.61	45d	1	0.05mi
3515 Arlene St Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	880	$1,025	$1.16	45d	1	0.66mi
513 Lakewood Rd Branson, MO	3.0	3.0	1487	$1,750	$1.18	45d	1	1.10mi
325 Majestic Dr Branson, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	941	$1,650	$1.75	45d	2	1.35mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $230,000 Active 217 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $230,000 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 212 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $230,000 Active 208 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $230,000 Active 207 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $230,000 Active 204 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $230,000 Active 203 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 202 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 198 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 197 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 196 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 195 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $230,000 Active 194 DOM
18. 2025-11-15
    listed $230,000 Active 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Check out this fully furnished 3-bed, 2-bath condo located in the desirable Vineyard Condominiums subdivision! With over 1,100 square feet of living space and a private deck, this unit is the perfect escape. Currently operating as an approved short-term rental. CLOSE TO TABLE ROCK LAKE AND THE BRANSON STRIP

19. 2025-11-15
    listed $230,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Check out this fully furnished 3-bed, 2-bath condo located in the desirable Vineyard Condominiums subdivision! With over 1,100 square feet of living space and a private deck, this unit is the perfect escape. Currently operating as an approved short-term rental. CLOSE TO TABLE ROCK LAKE AND THE BRANSON STRIP

20. 2025-09-03
    price $235,000
21. 2025-06-11
    status Active
22. 2025-06-11
    price $240,000
23. 2024-10-04
    listed $245,000 Active
24. 2023-03-03
    soldstatus Closed
25. 2023-02-06
    historical
26. 2023-02-04
    status Pending
27. 2023-02-02
    listed $487,200 Active
28. 2023-02-02
    listed $245,200 Active
29. 2022-06-29
    soldstatus
30. 2020-01-22
    soldstatus
31. 2020-01-20
    soldstatus
32. 2019-12-19
    listed $85,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,349 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,231 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$882/yr (+$74/mo · 65.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,349
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,765
• − Management: −$1,765
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$3,538
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$849
• After-tax cash flow: $1,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Branson R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2905760
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,473
• Composite: 41.96/100
• National rank: #3347
• State rank: #44 of 324 in MO

Livability — Branson

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #2940

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Branson, MO
• County: Taney County · 28,460 people
• City population: 28,460
• Metro: Branson, MO
• Population (ZIP): 28,460
• Household income: $60,489
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1065.0

Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.45%
• Current HPI: 200.8392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Branson, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+167.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-15 Listed $230,000 OGAR
• 2025-11-15 Listed $230,000 SOMO
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $235,000 SOMO
• 2025-06-11 Relisted — SOMO
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $240,000 SOMO
• 2024-10-04 Listed $245,000 SOMO
• 2023-03-03 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2023-02-06 Delisted — SOMO
• 2023-02-04 Pending — SOMO
• 2023-02-02 Listed $245,200 SOMO
• 2023-02-02 Listed $487,200 SOMO
• 2022-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-01-20 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2019-12-19 Listed $85,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,349 · +187.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.