149700 Serrano Ct · Big River, CA 92242

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2002 0.70 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac with beautiful desert views. The thoughtfully designed floor plan offers comfortable living space for family and guests, with an open and inviting atmosphere throughout. The oversized 2-car garage provides ample room for vehicles, toys, storage, or a workshop area. Enjoy peaceful mornings and stunning California sunsets while taking in the surrounding desert scenery. The cul-de-sac location offers added privacy and reduced traffic, making it an ideal setting for full-time living or a vacation retreat. Inside, you'll find generously sized bedrooms, comfortable living areas, and plenty of natural light. The property

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac location
• Natural light
• Desert views

Tags

• DESERT VIEWS
• CUL-DE-SAC LOCATION
• NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease of $100 annually (land lease renews January 1, 2029)
• HOA & community: Rural community

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces; Garage with single door and garage door opener; Gravel driveway; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Public/district water; Electricity connected
• Home design: House; Single-story (one level); Turnkey condition; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Composition roof; Built year per assessor; No common walls
• Exterior features: Covered patio; No pool; No fencing noted; Property has a view; Located on a cul-de-sac; Minimal/no landscaping

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Formica countertops; Breakfast counter/bar; Formal dining room; Propane range and propane oven; Range/stove hood; Dishwasher; Water heater unit
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms, all on the main level; Walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with double sinks; Combination of bathtub and walk-in shower
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Open floor plan; Formica counters
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry in a dedicated room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#327 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Needles Unified (town): math 22% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #1,194 of 1,400 in CA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,501 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.65%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $74,216
• Equity at exit: $113,513

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $203,728
• Equity at exit: $218,120

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92242

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,713 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $359	-5% $303	+0% $248	+5% $193	+10% $138
Rent	-10% $113	-5% $181	+0% $248	+5% $316	+10% $384
Rate	-1.0pp $329	-0.5pp $289	base $248	+0.5pp $207	+1.0pp $165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $159,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥117°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,644
• − Management: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $461
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$111
• After-tax cash flow: $2,868/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needles Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626760
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,795
• Composite: 23.35/100
• National rank: #13305
• State rank: #1194 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Big River

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #327
• US rank: #11065

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big River, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,203

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.26%
• Current HPI: 183.526
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $159,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

-10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $176 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.