Plan 2245 Plan · Round Rock, TX 78665

$363,995

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,245 sqft · SingleFamily · 706 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Ceramic tile flooring at kitchen, baths, entry and laundry * Granite kitchen countertops * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * 9-ft.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 705 days

🏗️ New construction. The $363,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $398,445.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $364k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-774 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.7% in Round Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#56 in TX, #2,184 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Hutto ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #438 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Hill El (math 30% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 628 students, 48% FRL); Hutto H S (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,010 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 750 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 706 days — a 12% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,560 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 706 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.33%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $398,445
• List price: $363,995
• Delta: -8.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6340 Turin Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,263 (+1%)	4mo	$414,900	$183	62
6633 Verona Pl	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,265 (+1%)	2mo	$414,900	$183	61
4632 College Square Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,310 (+3%)	5mo	$559,990	$242	58
4334 Bancroft Ln	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,221 (-1%)	8mo	$499,990	$225	57
4313 Contrail Ln	0.66mi	4/4.0	2,288 (+2%)	5mo	$466,990	$204	56
4308 College Square Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,358 (+5%)	3mo	$469,486	$199	52
6629 Casiano Cv	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,459 (+10%)	4mo	$425,000	$173	50
4408 College Square Dr	0.64mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,052 (-9%)	1mo	$447,781	$218	48
6500 Cetone Ter	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,529 (+13%)	6mo	$355,000	$140	44
6136 Teodoro Bnd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,009 (-10%)	1mo	$385,000	$192	40
4511 Alfano Loop	0.63mi	4/3.5	2,579 (+15%)	4mo	$410,000	$159	38
5936 Bianca Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,548 (+14%)	7mo	$470,000	$184	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-121,176
• Equity at exit: $59,409

10-year hold

• IRR: -66.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.77×
• Total profit: $-197,230
• Equity at exit: $34,450

Cash invested: $111,565 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 64 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.2 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $410,972 ($190/sqft)
• Median days on market: 155 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78665

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Rents YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 750
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,506 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,089
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$498 /mo · $5,977/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-774

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,486

Max offer price $286,426

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-499	-5% $-636	+0% $-774	+5% $-912	+10% $-1,049
Rent	-10% $-972	-5% $-873	+0% $-774	+5% $-675	+10% $-576
Rate	-1.0pp $-573	-0.5pp $-673	base $-774	+0.5pp $-877	+1.0pp $-982

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,611
• Closing costs: $11,953
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3840 Casoria Ln Round Rock, TX	5.0	2.5	2630	$4,250	$1.62	6d	1	0.08mi
4531 Avellino Dr Unit 1 Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.5	2734	$2,395	$0.88	0d	1	0.13mi
3928 Tufino Ln Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$2,150	$1.31	133d	1	0.16mi
4465 Acerno St Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2412	$2,350	$0.97	87d	1	0.21mi
4481 Acerno St Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2527	$2,500	$0.99	74d	1	0.23mi
5601 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,000	$1.13	10d	1	0.48mi
5601 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,000	$1.13	55d	1	0.48mi
5612 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1772	$1,950	$1.10	10d	1	0.49mi
5612 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1772	$1,950	$1.10	41d	1	0.49mi
5576 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1642	$1,995	$1.21	41d	1	0.52mi
5563 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	2030	$2,300	$1.13	55d	1	0.53mi
5844 Bianca Dr Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1847	$1,999	$1.08	15d	1	0.53mi
5547 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	5.0	4.0	2853	$3,995	$1.40	101d	1	0.56mi
5547 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	5.0	3.5	2853	$2,500	$0.88	2d	1	0.56mi
4600 Alfano Loop Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2070	$2,200	$1.06	36d	1	0.57mi
6060 Teodoro Bnd Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1966	$2,300	$1.17	184d	1	0.57mi
6045 Teodoro Bnd Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	1855	$2,250	$1.21	133d	1	0.58mi
5908 Bianca Dr Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	1975	$2,630	$1.33	0d	1	0.60mi
5817 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	2022	$2,150	$1.06	55d	1	0.61mi
3914 La Contenta Ln Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2229	$2,450	$1.10	184d	1	0.63mi
6508 Cetone Ter Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,095	$1.21	161d	1	0.64mi
4318 Frankfurt Ln Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	2220	$3,000	$1.35	105d	1	0.67mi
5855 San Savino Dr Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	2195	$2,500	$1.14	0d	1	0.67mi
6605 Verona Pl Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,150	$1.23	69d	1	0.68mi
6532 Cetone Ter Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,000	$1.24	43d	1	0.68mi
4326 Frankfurt Ln Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1983	$2,800	$1.41	0d	1	0.69mi
6513 Leonardo Cv Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,195	$1.27	138d	1	0.70mi
6650 Verona Pl Round Rock, TX	3.0	3.0	1805	$2,250	$1.25	115d	1	0.73mi
4040 Terracina Dr Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2458	$2,250	$0.92	10d	1	0.74mi
4345 Chapel Hill St Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1577	$2,150	$1.36	51d	1	0.75mi
6412 Laurencia Pl Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1645	$1,900	$1.16	41d	1	0.76mi
6562 Teramo Ter Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	2199	$1,999	$0.91	129d	1	0.77mi
4937 Morese Palace Trl Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2210	$2,395	$1.08	184d	1	0.77mi
3457 Francisco Way Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	3000	$3,000	$1.00	130d	1	0.77mi
3508 De Torres Cir Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	2203	$2,500	$1.13	148d	1	0.78mi
6520 Strelitzia Cv Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2600	$2,395	$0.92	0d	1	0.80mi
5913 Toscana Trce Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1966	$2,000	$1.02	31d	1	0.81mi
5913 Toscana Trce Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1930	$2,000	$1.04	43d	1	0.81mi
5900 Bucine Cv Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2802	$2,695	$0.96	144d	1	0.82mi
5900 Bucine Cv Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2802	$2,495	$0.89	10d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $363,995 Active 706 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $363,995 Active 705 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $363,995 Active 704 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $363,995 Active 703 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $363,995 Active 702 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $363,995 Active 700 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $363,995 Active 699 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $363,995 Active 698 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $363,995 Active 697 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $363,995 Active 696 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $363,995 Active 695 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $363,995 Active 694 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $363,995 Active 693 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $363,995 Active 692 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $363,995 Active 691 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $363,995 Active 690 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $363,995 Active 689 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $363,995 Active 688 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $363,995 Active 687 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $363,995 Active 686 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $363,995 Active 685 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $363,995 Active 684 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $363,995 Active 683 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $363,995 Active 682 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $363,995 Active 681 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $363,995 Active 680 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $363,995 Active 679 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $363,995 Active 678 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $363,995 Active 677 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $363,995 Active 676 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $363,995 Active 675 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $363,995 Active 674 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $363,995 Active 673 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $363,995 Active 672 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $363,995 Active 671 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $363,995 Active 670 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $363,995 Active 669 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $363,995 Active 668 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $363,995 Active 667 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $363,995 Active 666 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    pricedays on market $363,995 Active 665 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $358,995 Active 664 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $358,995 Active 662 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $358,995 Active 661 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $358,995 Active 660 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $358,995 Active 659 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $358,995 Active 658 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $358,995 Active 657 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $358,995 Active 656 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $358,995 Active 655 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,319
• − Property taxes: −$5,977
• − Insurance: −$1,992
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,405
• − Management: −$2,405
• − Depreciation: −$11,591
• Taxable loss: −$16,623
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,989
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,225–$33,675 screening

This home is in good condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and would benefit from some landscaping and exterior painting to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Veterans Hill El F TX #1,946/4,322 Nat'l #22,764/41,679 High Hutto Ninth Grade Center

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hutto ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $72,961
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5501
• State rank: #438 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Round Rock

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #2184

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Round Rock, TX
• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 184,922
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 66,171
• Household income: $122,680
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 18% Black 11% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.58%
• Current HPI: 179.7075
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.23%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $353,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $348,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $358,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $363,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $360,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $353,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $358,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $354,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $353,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $349,995 Zillow
• 2025-03-01 Price Changed $359,995 Zillow
• 2024-12-02 Listed $379,995 Zillow