851 Ember Dr · Winfield, AL 35594

$75,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 972 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1993 2.00 ac lot $77/sqft · 47% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and well-maintained, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable living with a functional layout designed for everyday ease. Inside, you'll find a spacious living room, a dedicated dining area, and a cozy breakfast nook perfect for morning coffee or casual meals. Step outside to enjoy approximately 2 acres of property, providing room to relax, garden, or entertain. In addition to the main residence, the property features a detached 2-car garage and a separate 1-bedroom, 1-bath living space-ideal for guests, extended family, or potential rental income. Located within the highly sought-after Winfield City School System, this property combines space, versatility, and a convenient location. Property is being sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Detached garage
• 2 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• SEPARATE LIVING SPACE
• APPROXIMATELY 2 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($948 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 2.8% in Winfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#84 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Fayette County (rural): math 17% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #71 of 129 in AL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.76%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,169
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -56.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $6,499
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $29,610
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35594

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $948 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $372/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $577

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $336	-5% $314	+0% $293	+5% $272	+10% $251
Rent	-10% $218	-5% $256	+0% $293	+5% $331	+10% $368
Rate	-1.0pp $331	-0.5pp $312	base $293	+0.5pp $274	+1.0pp $254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    status Active 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    Charming and well-maintained, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable living with a functional layout designed for everyday ease. Inside, you'll find a spacious living room, a dedicated dining area, and a cozy breakfast nook perfect for morning coffee or casual meals. Step outside to enjoy approximately 2 acres of property, providing room to relax, garden, or entertain. In addition to the main residence, the property features a detached 2-car garage and a separate 1-bedroom, 1-bath living space-ideal for guests, extended family, or potential rental income. Located within the highly sought-after Winfield City School System, this property combines space, versatility, and a convenient location. Property is being sold AS-IS.

18. 2026-04-23
    historical Active Under Contract 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    Charming and well-maintained, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable living with a functional layout designed for everyday ease. Inside, you'll find a spacious living room, a dedicated dining area, and a cozy breakfast nook perfect for morning coffee or casual meals. Step outside to enjoy approximately 2 acres of property, providing room to relax, garden, or entertain. In addition to the main residence, the property features a detached 2-car garage and a separate 1-bedroom, 1-bath living space-ideal for guests, extended family, or potential rental income. Located within the highly sought-after Winfield City School System, this property combines space, versatility, and a convenient location. Property is being sold AS-IS.

19. 2026-04-09
    status Active 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    Charming and well-maintained, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable living with a functional layout designed for everyday ease. Inside, you'll find a spacious living room, a dedicated dining area, and a cozy breakfast nook perfect for morning coffee or casual meals. Step outside to enjoy approximately 2 acres of property, providing room to relax, garden, or entertain. In addition to the main residence, the property features a detached 2-car garage and a separate 1-bedroom, 1-bath living space-ideal for guests, extended family, or potential rental income. Located within the highly sought-after Winfield City School System, this property combines space, versatility, and a convenient location. Property is being sold AS-IS.

20. 2026-04-01
    historical Active Under Contract 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    Charming and well-maintained, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable living with a functional layout designed for everyday ease. Inside, you'll find a spacious living room, a dedicated dining area, and a cozy breakfast nook perfect for morning coffee or casual meals. Step outside to enjoy approximately 2 acres of property, providing room to relax, garden, or entertain. In addition to the main residence, the property features a detached 2-car garage and a separate 1-bedroom, 1-bath living space-ideal for guests, extended family, or potential rental income. Located within the highly sought-after Winfield City School System, this property combines space, versatility, and a convenient location. Property is being sold AS-IS.

21. 2026-02-19
    listed $75,000 Active 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    Charming and well-maintained, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable living with a functional layout designed for everyday ease. Inside, you'll find a spacious living room, a dedicated dining area, and a cozy breakfast nook perfect for morning coffee or casual meals. Step outside to enjoy approximately 2 acres of property, providing room to relax, garden, or entertain. In addition to the main residence, the property features a detached 2-car garage and a separate 1-bedroom, 1-bath living space-ideal for guests, extended family, or potential rental income. Located within the highly sought-after Winfield City School System, this property combines space, versatility, and a convenient location. Property is being sold AS-IS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $372 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $372 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$372
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$910
• − Management: −$910
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,424
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$582
• After-tax cash flow: $2,937/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayette County
• NCES district ID: 0101470
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,767
• Composite: 25.06/100
• National rank: #7540
• State rank: #71 of 129 in AL

Livability — Winfield

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #10852

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winfield, AL
• City population: 7,441
• Population (ZIP): 7,441

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,631 people
• By 2030: 14,975 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 13,604 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 12,302 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 9,599 · -38.6%
• By 2100: 7,282 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 5% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.7% · R 85.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.9pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+67.4 2016: R+65.2 2012: R+53.5 2008: R+48.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.46%
• Current HPI: 159.533
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-04-01 Contingent — Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $75,000 Walker County Area MLS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $372 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.