9727 Orangevale Dr · Houston, TX 77379

$245,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,749 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1983 6,821 sqft lot $140/sqft · 6% below area Est $261k · 6% under $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home featuring soaring vaulted ceilings in the living room and an abundance of natural light throughout. The spacious living area is centered around a cozy fireplace, creating the perfect setting for relaxing or entertaining. The open layout flows seamlessly into the dining and kitchen areas, offering both comfort and functionality. Step outside to a large backyard with plenty of space for gatherings, pets, or future outdoor additions. A wonderful opportunity to own a home that combines space, warmth, and natural light.

Key facts

• 6,821 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-97 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 622 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,044 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.69%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,074
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -6.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15815 Mustang Mountain Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,734 (-1%)	6mo	$300,000	$173	70
17203 Kettle Creek Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,940 (+11%)	1mo	$279,000	$144	68
17310 Colony Creek Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,808 (+3%)	1mo	$289,900	$160	62
17311 Colony Creek Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,806 (+3%)	7mo	$269,000	$149	59
9518 Dundalk St	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,712 (-2%)	4mo	$259,999	$152	56
9107 Wallingham Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,958 (+12%)	2mo	$265,000	$135	54
9546 Cane Creek Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,741 (-0%)	7mo	$267,000	$153	54
17327 Harmony Hill Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,643 (-6%)	5mo	$259,499	$158	53
9511 Dornoch Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,644 (-6%)	0mo	$240,000	$146	52
9102 Woodhouse Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,899 (+9%)	0mo	$282,000	$148	49
9122 Cypress Square Dr	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,977 (+13%)	1mo	$298,000	$151	44
9626 Magnolia Ridge Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,508 (-14%)	0mo	$247,900	$164	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-52,096
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-77,363
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77379

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 622
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,160 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$381 /mo · $4,568/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,283

Max offer price $227,900

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16834 Scenic Gardens Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,945	$1.02	43d	1	0.40mi
9331 Charter Pine St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,145	$1.19	21d	1	0.46mi
15500 Cutten Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1422	$2,790	$1.96	1d	29	0.52mi
9127 Cypress Square Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,099	$1.14	5d	1	0.63mi
14818 Vintage Preserve Pkwy Unit 14851 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,995	$1.30	10d	1	0.98mi
14818 Vintage Preserve Pkwy Unit 3228 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,963	$1.28	2d	1	0.98mi
19939 Chasewood Park Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1061	$2,188	$2.06	1d	18	1.01mi
17226 Modbury St Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1640	$1,889	$1.15	43d	1	1.02mi
14700 Vintage Preserve Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1214	$2,757	$2.27	1d	19	1.06mi
9844 Cypresswood Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,118	$1.99	2d	17	1.19mi
9721 Cypresswood Dr Unit 9754 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,839	$1.50	10d	1	1.30mi
9721 Cypresswood Dr Unit 3148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,807	$1.47	2d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $245,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $245,000 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $253,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $253,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-02-27
    listed $253,000 Active 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home featuring soaring vaulted ceilings in the living room and an abundance of natural light throughout. The spacious living area is centered around a cozy fireplace, creating the perfect setting for relaxing or entertaining. The open layout flows seamlessly into the dining and kitchen areas, offering both comfort and functionality. Step outside to a large backyard with plenty of space for gatherings, pets, or future outdoor additions. A wonderful opportunity to own a home that combines space, warmth, and natural light.

16. 2015-06-26
    soldstatus Sold 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    GREAT FOUR BEDROOM HOME. ALL BEDROOMS ARE UP. BEAUTIFUL HARDWOOD FLOORS IN LIVING ROOM AND ON THE STAIRS. TILE FLOORS IN THE KITCHEN. COVERED PATIO WITH FLAGSTONE EXTENSION. LARGE LANDSCAPED, FENCED BACK YARD. GREAT FOR FAMILY ACTIVITIES.

17. 2015-06-15
    status Pending 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    GREAT FOUR BEDROOM HOME. ALL BEDROOMS ARE UP. BEAUTIFUL HARDWOOD FLOORS IN LIVING ROOM AND ON THE STAIRS. TILE FLOORS IN THE KITCHEN. COVERED PATIO WITH FLAGSTONE EXTENSION. LARGE LANDSCAPED, FENCED BACK YARD. GREAT FOR FAMILY ACTIVITIES.

18. 2015-06-07
    status Option Pending 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    GREAT FOUR BEDROOM HOME. ALL BEDROOMS ARE UP. BEAUTIFUL HARDWOOD FLOORS IN LIVING ROOM AND ON THE STAIRS. TILE FLOORS IN THE KITCHEN. COVERED PATIO WITH FLAGSTONE EXTENSION. LARGE LANDSCAPED, FENCED BACK YARD. GREAT FOR FAMILY ACTIVITIES.

19. 2015-06-07
    status Active 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    GREAT FOUR BEDROOM HOME. ALL BEDROOMS ARE UP. BEAUTIFUL HARDWOOD FLOORS IN LIVING ROOM AND ON THE STAIRS. TILE FLOORS IN THE KITCHEN. COVERED PATIO WITH FLAGSTONE EXTENSION. LARGE LANDSCAPED, FENCED BACK YARD. GREAT FOR FAMILY ACTIVITIES.

20. 2015-06-06
    status Option Pending 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    GREAT FOUR BEDROOM HOME. ALL BEDROOMS ARE UP. BEAUTIFUL HARDWOOD FLOORS IN LIVING ROOM AND ON THE STAIRS. TILE FLOORS IN THE KITCHEN. COVERED PATIO WITH FLAGSTONE EXTENSION. LARGE LANDSCAPED, FENCED BACK YARD. GREAT FOR FAMILY ACTIVITIES.

21. 2015-06-06
    price $135,000 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    GREAT FOUR BEDROOM HOME. ALL BEDROOMS ARE UP. BEAUTIFUL HARDWOOD FLOORS IN LIVING ROOM AND ON THE STAIRS. TILE FLOORS IN THE KITCHEN. COVERED PATIO WITH FLAGSTONE EXTENSION. LARGE LANDSCAPED, FENCED BACK YARD. GREAT FOR FAMILY ACTIVITIES.

22. 2015-06-04
    listed $125,000 Active 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    GREAT FOUR BEDROOM HOME. ALL BEDROOMS ARE UP. BEAUTIFUL HARDWOOD FLOORS IN LIVING ROOM AND ON THE STAIRS. TILE FLOORS IN THE KITCHEN. COVERED PATIO WITH FLAGSTONE EXTENSION. LARGE LANDSCAPED, FENCED BACK YARD. GREAT FOR FAMILY ACTIVITIES.

23. 2009-05-07
    soldstatus
24. 2009-05-02
    soldstatus
25. 2009-03-29
    historical
26. 2008-12-04
    listed $109,900
27. 2004-10-28
    soldstatus
28. 2001-02-01
    soldstatus
29. 1998-05-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,568 · $381/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,568 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$4,568
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,074
• − Management: −$2,074
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$5,299
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,272
• After-tax cash flow: $110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 85,190
• Household income: $107,486
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2220.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 11% Asian 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.58%
• Current HPI: 218.9608
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+130.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $253,000 HARMLS
• 2015-06-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-06-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-06-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-06-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2015-06-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-06-06 Price Changed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2015-06-04 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2009-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-05-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-03-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-12-04 Listed $109,900 HARMLS
• 2004-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,568 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.