537 Montroyale Dr · Erie, PA 16504

$219,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,404 sqft · Condo public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1975 $310/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A FANTASTIC condo in in a super convenient location of Millcreek! Well taken care of, super clean and plenty of space is found with this one! Kitchen has new counters, sink and back splash. All the newer kitchen appliances stay, too! A great sized living room with fireplace and a dining area right off that. All the bedrooms are generous sizes with a larger master - which has its own full bathroom, too! Great full basement for storage or finish off! Don't miss this one!

Key facts

• Updated finishes
• Great location
• Ensuite bath

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION
• UPDATED FINISHES
• OPEN LAYOUT
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• VERSATILE BONUS SPACE
• ENSUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $200k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.1% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $139k; list at $220k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $200,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.38%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-17,826
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $8,054
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16504

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,670 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,344/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$310
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,321

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $400	-5% $338	+0% $276	+5% $214	+10% $151
Rent	-10% $65	-5% $170	+0% $276	+5% $381	+10% $487
Rate	-1.0pp $387	-0.5pp $332	base $276	+0.5pp $219	+1.0pp $161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 W 38th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1850	$4,000	$2.16	44d	1	1.01mi
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	44d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $310 · $3,720/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,900 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $219,900 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,900 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,900 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $219,900 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,900 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,900 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    status $219,900 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-04-16
    status Pending
15. 2026-01-11
    listed $219,900 Active
16. 2020-02-28
    soldstatus $139,000 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    A FANTASTIC condo in in a super convenient location of Millcreek! Well taken care of, super clean and plenty of space is found with this one! Kitchen has new counters, sink and back splash. All the newer kitchen appliances stay, too! A great sized living room with fireplace and a dining area right off that. All the bedrooms are generous sizes with a larger master - which has its own full bathroom, too! Great full basement for storage or finish off! Don't miss this one!

17. 2020-02-28
    soldstatus $139,000

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    A FANTASTIC condo in in a super convenient location of Millcreek! Well taken care of, super clean and plenty of space is found with this one! Kitchen has new counters, sink and back splash. All the newer kitchen appliances stay, too! A great sized living room with fireplace and a dining area right off that. All the bedrooms are generous sizes with a larger master - which has its own full bathroom, too! Great full basement for storage or finish off! Don't miss this one!

18. 2019-11-25
    listed $139,900 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    A FANTASTIC condo in in a super convenient location of Millcreek! Well taken care of, super clean and plenty of space is found with this one! Kitchen has new counters, sink and back splash. All the newer kitchen appliances stay, too! A great sized living room with fireplace and a dining area right off that. All the bedrooms are generous sizes with a larger master - which has its own full bathroom, too! Great full basement for storage or finish off! Don't miss this one!

19. 2001-10-31
    soldstatus $88,350
20. 2000-07-03
    soldstatus $78,900
21. 1991-03-04
    soldstatus $76,900
22. 1981-07-16
    soldstatus $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,344 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,409 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$65/yr (+$5/mo · 1.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,344
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,563
• − Management: −$2,563
• − HOA: −$3,720
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable income: $36
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9
• After-tax cash flow: $3,302/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,632

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Subsaharan African 2% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.54%
• Current HPI: 260.1053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+267.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-01-11 Listed $219,900 GEBOR
• 2020-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-28 Sold (MLS) $139,000 GEBOR
• 2019-11-25 Listed $139,900 GEBOR
• 2001-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $88,350 Public Records
• 2000-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $78,900 Public Records
• 1991-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $76,900 Public Records
• 1981-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,344 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.