12017 Cartwright Dr · Bayonet Point, FL 34667

$99,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1971 8,639 sqft lot Est $130k · 23% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity in Ponderosa Park. Spacious double wide on corner lot, ready for your TLC to make it home! Spacious deck, carport with large workshop/shed, laundry area, storage galore, carport, front covered porch. Inside, Vinyl plank flooring, open living space, roomy primary suite with en suite bath, French doors to front porch. Appliances included, central HVAC. Lots of potential!! In Ponderosa Park, you own the land, and HOA fees are only $250/year! Includes great community amenities like POOL, bocci, shuffleboard and more!! 55+ community.

Key facts

• Front covered porch
• Spacious deck
• Open living space

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SPACIOUS DECK
• LARGE WORKSHOP
• FRONT COVERED PORCH
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN LIVING SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Ponderosa Park community; HOA required with annual fee ($250) — approximately $20.83/month; Association approval required; Community clubhouse and pool; Deed-restricted, senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); Single-story; East-facing entry
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide mobile home; Property condition: fixer
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Balcony; French doors; Hurricane shutters; Corner lot; Asphalt road frontage; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Ductless heating option; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet; Outdoor laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $749 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, schools F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 800 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $692 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $100k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,990 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.10%
• DSCR: 2.43
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7309 Blue Lake Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	4mo	$115,000	$120	85
12110 Bonanza Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	962 (+0%)	2mo	$90,000	$94	85
7303 Blue Lake Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	13mo	$165,000	$172	78
7412 Grand Pine Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	12mo	$145,000	$151	72
12119 Bonanza Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	1mo	$120,000	$114	70
12201 Bonanza Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	11mo	$142,500	$135	61
7304 Osage Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (-7%)	13mo	$94,000	$105	59
12210 Bonanza Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	12mo	$178,500	$169	57
12343 Lariat Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,068 (+11%)	13mo	$165,000	$154	55
7318 Allyson St	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+12%)	11mo	$145,000	$134	50
7127 Commons Blvd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+15%)	3mo	$100,000	$91	38
7200 Johnson Rd	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+12%)	17mo	$148,000	$137	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $26,385
• Equity at exit: $14,909

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $64,633
• Equity at exit: $8,645

Cash invested: $27,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 800
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,740 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $478/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $749

Break-even live

Break-even rent $792

Max offer price $99,990

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $806	-5% $777	+0% $749	+5% $721	+10% $692
Rent	-10% $611	-5% $680	+0% $749	+5% $818	+10% $886
Rate	-1.0pp $799	-0.5pp $774	base $749	+0.5pp $723	+1.0pp $697

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,998
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	25d	1	0.40mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	25d	1	0.42mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	19d	1	0.42mi
7616 Danube Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	25d	1	0.48mi
7539 Gulf Highlands Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,550	$1.66	6d	1	0.50mi
7602 Danube Dr Unit 7602 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	25d	1	0.52mi
7433 Greystone Dr #7433 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,300	$1.26	19d	1	0.60mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	5d	1	0.64mi
12702 Social Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,500	$1.45	6d	1	0.67mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,795	$1.60	0d	1	0.73mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	25d	1	0.74mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	12d	1	0.74mi
12809 College Hill Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,780	$1.60	6d	1	0.83mi
7300 Country Club Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	926	$1,400	$1.51	4d	1	0.84mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,704	$1.54	4d	10	0.86mi
7213 Seward Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	25d	1	0.87mi
6731 Sandra Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,575	$1.93	25d	1	0.91mi
11103 Harding Dr Unit 2 Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	760	$1,450	$1.91	21d	1	0.94mi
11031 Hassle Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1006	$1,595	$1.59	25d	1	0.99mi
11138 Yellowwood Ln Unit NA Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	25d	1	1.08mi
8304 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	25d	1	1.10mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	19d	1	1.10mi
13113 Bartow St Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	528	$1,190	$2.25	25d	1	1.11mi
10803 Hyssop St Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	12d	1	1.25mi
7438 Coventry Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	985	$1,600	$1.62	14d	1	1.30mi
11635 Salmon Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	816	$1,500	$1.84	25d	1	1.31mi
13128 Beacon Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,600	$1.50	25d	1	1.36mi
13315 Neptune Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	25d	1	1.46mi
10802 Laburnum Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,545	$1.54	25d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $99,990 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,990 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,990 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,990 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,990 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $99,990 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,500 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,500 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,500 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $109,500 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,500 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,500 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,500 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,500 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $109,500
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $113,000 Active
17. 2003-12-15
    soldstatus $53,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $478 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $830 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$352/yr (+$29/mo · 73.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 34% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$478
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,671
• − Management: −$1,671
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $7,814
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,875
• After-tax cash flow: $7,112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+104.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $109,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $113,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $478 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.