18572 Caffee Dr · Vance, AL 35490

$277,400

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · SingleFamily · 62 Days on market

Built 2025 0.34 ac lot $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The one-level Cali plan provides an efficient, four-bedroom, two-bath design in 1,774 square feet. One of the unique features is the integration of the kitchen, breakfast area and great room in an open concept design perfect for entertaining. Enjoy early morning coffee or quiet evenings under the shaded covered patio. The bedroom on-suite is your private getaway with a separate shower, double vanity and large walk-in closet. A two-car garage, laundry room and pantry provide utility and storage. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

Key facts

• Private getaway
• Shaded covered patio
• Open concept design

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• SHADED COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE GETAWAY
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY PACKAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $277,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $276,744.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $277k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-457 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (24.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (32.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#117 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vance Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #367 of 627 statewide, top 60%, 499 students, 69% FRL); Brookwood Middle School (math 8% / reading 36%, grade F, #182 of 257 statewide, top 71%, 796 students, 65% FRL); Brookwood High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,078 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 45% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $187,888 (32.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.08%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $276,744
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18547 Caffee Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,774 (0%)	1mo	$283,400	$160	95
18542 Caffee Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,774 (0%)	1mo	$281,087	$158	95
18570 Blocton Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,774 (0%)	2mo	$272,400	$154	90
18571 Blocton Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,774 (0%)	5mo	$267,400	$151	89
18680 Caffee Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,774 (0%)	9mo	$277,400	$156	89
18692 Caffee Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,774 (0%)	2mo	$272,900	$154	88
18553 Blocton Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,774 (0%)	6mo	$269,400	$152	88
18710 Caffee Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,774 (0%)	4mo	$274,900	$155	86
18546 Blocton Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,774 (0%)	6mo	$267,400	$151	86
18558 Blocton Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,774 (0%)	9mo	$283,000	$160	84
18562 Jessicah Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,776 (+0%)	4mo	$277,000	$156	71
10758 Bent Brook Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,583 (-11%)	0mo	$260,000	$164	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $121,649
• Equity at exit: $249,313

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $381,227
• Equity at exit: $537,653

Cash invested: $77,488 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35490

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,879 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,451
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$346 /mo · $4,151/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,458

Max offer price $210,586

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,186
• Closing costs: $8,302
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18542 Caffee Dr Vance, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,750	$0.99	21d	1	0.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (753 chars)

   Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The one-level Cali plan provides an efficient, four-bedroom, two-bath design in 1,774 square feet. One of the unique features is the integration of the kitchen, breakfast area and great room in an open concept design perfect for entertaining. Enjoy early morning coffee or quiet evenings under the shaded covered patio. The bedroom on-suite is your private getaway with a separate shower, double vanity and large walk-in closet. A two-car garage, laundry room and pantry provide utility and storage. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

2. 2026-03-17
   status Pending 753-char remark

   Show marketing remark (753 chars)

   Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The one-level Cali plan provides an efficient, four-bedroom, two-bath design in 1,774 square feet. One of the unique features is the integration of the kitchen, breakfast area and great room in an open concept design perfect for entertaining. Enjoy early morning coffee or quiet evenings under the shaded covered patio. The bedroom on-suite is your private getaway with a separate shower, double vanity and large walk-in closet. A two-car garage, laundry room and pantry provide utility and storage. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

3. 2026-01-14
   listed $277,400 Active

   Show marketing remark (753 chars)

   Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The one-level Cali plan provides an efficient, four-bedroom, two-bath design in 1,774 square feet. One of the unique features is the integration of the kitchen, breakfast area and great room in an open concept design perfect for entertaining. Enjoy early morning coffee or quiet evenings under the shaded covered patio. The bedroom on-suite is your private getaway with a separate shower, double vanity and large walk-in closet. A two-car garage, laundry room and pantry provide utility and storage. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

4. 2026-01-14
   listed $277,400 Active 753-char remark

   Show marketing remark (753 chars)

   Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The one-level Cali plan provides an efficient, four-bedroom, two-bath design in 1,774 square feet. One of the unique features is the integration of the kitchen, breakfast area and great room in an open concept design perfect for entertaining. Enjoy early morning coffee or quiet evenings under the shaded covered patio. The bedroom on-suite is your private getaway with a separate shower, double vanity and large walk-in closet. A two-car garage, laundry room and pantry provide utility and storage. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,502
• − Property taxes: −$4,151
• − Insurance: −$1,384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,804
• − Management: −$1,804
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,051
• Taxable loss: −$10,496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,519
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Vance

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #12508

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vance, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 4,457
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,457
• Household income: $87,813
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: French 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.30%
• Current HPI: 222.8671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — WAMLS
• 2026-03-17 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $277,400 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $277,400 WAMLS