4635 N Sierra Dr · Coolidge, AZ 85194

$229,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · Land · 101 Days on market

Built 2025 6,500 sqft lot $155/sqft · 1331% above area ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape the city and embrace a more relaxed pace of life in this fantastic 4-bedroom home! Perfect for first-time buyers or growing families, this home offers affordability, comfort, and a great location near Coolidge. Plus, with NO HOA, you'll enjoy the freedom to make it your own. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity!

Key facts

• No hoa
• 6,500 sq ft lot
• Built 2025

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION NEAR COOLIDGE
• NO HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($789/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.5% in Coolidge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#235 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Coolidge Unified District (4442) (town): math 8% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #229 of 249 in AZ (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,390 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $16,000
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: 1331.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-32,891
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-23,124
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85194

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,086 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,003

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4577 N Palo Verde Ln Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1120	$1,600	$1.43	1d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 329-char remark

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Escape the city and embrace a more relaxed pace of life in this fantastic 4-bedroom home! Perfect for first-time buyers or growing families, this home offers affordability, comfort, and a great location near Coolidge. Plus, with NO HOA, you'll enjoy the freedom to make it your own. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity!

2. 2026-03-31
   price $229,000 329-char remark

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Escape the city and embrace a more relaxed pace of life in this fantastic 4-bedroom home! Perfect for first-time buyers or growing families, this home offers affordability, comfort, and a great location near Coolidge. Plus, with NO HOA, you'll enjoy the freedom to make it your own. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity!

3. 2026-02-27
   price $229,999 329-char remark

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Escape the city and embrace a more relaxed pace of life in this fantastic 4-bedroom home! Perfect for first-time buyers or growing families, this home offers affordability, comfort, and a great location near Coolidge. Plus, with NO HOA, you'll enjoy the freedom to make it your own. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity!

4. 2026-01-30
   listed $239,999 Active 329-char remark

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Escape the city and embrace a more relaxed pace of life in this fantastic 4-bedroom home! Perfect for first-time buyers or growing families, this home offers affordability, comfort, and a great location near Coolidge. Plus, with NO HOA, you'll enjoy the freedom to make it your own. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,003
• − Management: −$2,003
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$3,038
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$729
• After-tax cash flow: $1,518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coolidge Unified District (4442)
• NCES district ID: 0402320
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,182
• Composite: 10.35/100
• National rank: #9787
• State rank: #229 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Coolidge

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #22344

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 19,487
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 8,077
• Household income: $82,935
• Rent vs Own: 10.1% rent · 89.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 17.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.29%
• Current HPI: 251.5364
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $229,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $229,999 ARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $239,999 ARMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $76 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.