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503 Arches Ln
D Composite 42.37
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +12.7/15.0
  • Cash flow +8.4/30.0
  • Schools +5.6/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.8/5.0
  • Livability +3.3/5.0
  • 1% rule +2.9/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • DSCR +2.3/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$374,990

503 Arches Ln · Ruckersville, VA 22923
4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,534 sqft lot Garage $223/sqft · 11% below area Est $424k · 11% under $95/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Back by popular demand! Creekside 2-Story Single Family Homes, Greene County’s NEWEST amenity filled community featuring 2 pools, clubhouse with fitness center, playground, pickleball, walking trails and much more! Located north of Charlottesville on 29, set in a peaceful setting with beautiful mountain views. This to be built Birch Floorplan features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 2-car garage. An open concept design with a spacious owner's suite with private bath & walk-in closet. Enjoy a gourmet kitchen with maple cabinetry, spacious kitchen, granite counters and stainless steel appliances.

Key facts

  • Pickleball
  • 2 pools
  • Playground

Tags

2 POOLSCLUBHOUSE WITH FITNESS CENTERPLAYGROUNDPICKLEBALLWALKING TRAILSBEAUTIFUL MOUNTAIN VIEWS

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $375k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-338 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (13.0% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (20.7% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $297k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.1% in Ruckersville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 66/100 on livability (#318 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Ruckersville Elementary (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C+, #583 of 1,108 statewide, top 53%, 506 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer $297,260 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.79% ✗
Cap rate
5.21%
Cash-on-cash
-3.86%
DSCR
0.83
GRM
10.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$423,548
List price
$374,990
Delta
-11.46%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
40 Sequoia Dr 0.18mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,696 (+1%) 3mo $445,625 $263 81
268 Arches Ln 0.14mi 4/2.5 1,903 (+13%) 1mo $434,990 $229 70
26 Sequoia Dr 0.19mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,559 (-7%) 2mo $425,775 $273 70
365 White Sands Blvd 0.18mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,559 (-7%) 4mo $434,540 $279 70
46 Sequoia Dr 0.22mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,559 (-7%) 1mo $418,590 $268 70
352 Daniels Rd 0.43mi 4/2.0 1,597 (-5%) 3mo $400,000 $250 67
209 Hall Dr 0.28mi 3/2.5 (-1) 1,920 (+14%) 0mo $460,335 $240 58
225 Trailfork Rd 0.74mi 4/2.5 1,760 (+5%) 4mo $407,490 $232 55
310 Trailfork Rd 0.61mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,554 (-8%) 0mo $494,990 $319 52
247 Trailfork Rd 0.67mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,554 (-8%) 1mo $366,990 $236 49
220 Trailfork Rd 0.69mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,554 (-8%) 1mo $366,990 $236 48
193 Trailfork Rd Lot 76 0.72mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,554 (-8%) 3mo $373,389 $240 44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-22.8%
Equity multiple
0.22×
Total profit
$-82,196
Equity at exit
$55,912
10-year hold
IRR
-17.0%
Equity multiple
0.06×
Total profit
$-98,885
Equity at exit
$32,422

Cash invested: $104,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
State Virginia
55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.
Methodology + full state rankings →
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
51 active · 55 under contract
Months of supply
8.7 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$399,000 ($257/sqft)
Median days on market
19 d
This list price
18% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-1.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 22923

Home prices YoY
-3.6%
Active inventory
296
Price-to-rent
10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,973 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,966
Tax est. 1.5%
−$469 /mo · $5,625/yr
Insurance
−$156
HOA
−$95
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
−$624
Net cashflow
$-338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,401
Max offer price $326,064
Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-79 -5% $-209 +0% $-338 +5% $-468 +10% $-597
Rent -10% $-573 -5% $-456 +0% $-338 +5% $-221 +10% $-103
Rate -1.0pp $-149 -0.5pp $-243 base $-338 +0.5pp $-435 +1.0pp $-534

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$93,748
Closing costs
$11,250
Reserves months
—
Total cash needed
—

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 12 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
92 Everglades RD Barboursville, VA 4.0 2.5 1903 $2,795 $1.47 108d 1 0.22mi
246 Arches Ln Eheart, VA 4.0 2.5 1903 $2,875 $1.51 3d 1 0.35mi
246 Arches Ln Eheart, VA 4.0 2.5 1903 $3,100 $1.63 32d 1 0.35mi
32 Estes Ct Barboursville, VA 3.0 2.5 1400 $2,600 $1.86 109d 1 0.46mi
591 Preddy Creek Rd Barboursville, VA 3.0 2.0 1200 $2,250 $1.88 70d 1 0.46mi
144 Lake Saponi Dr #7 Barboursville, VA 3.0 1.5 1260 $2,000 $1.59 69d 1 0.68mi
50 Grayson Village DR Barboursville, VA 3.0 2.5 1470 $2,095 $1.43 46d 1 0.73mi
54 Mannie Ct Barboursville, VA 4.0 2.0 1680 $2,600 $1.55 108d 1 0.79mi
662 Holly Hill Dr Barboursville, VA 4.0 2.5 2014 $2,800 $1.39 3d 1 0.79mi
18 Sophie Kathryn DR Barboursville, VA 3.0 3.5 1470 $2,200 $1.50 0d 1 0.79mi
35 Holly Hill Dr Barboursville, VA 4.0 3.5 2000 $2,700 $1.35 0d 1 0.80mi
59 Grayson Village DR Barboursville, VA 3.0 2.5 1470 $2,100 $1.43 46d 1 0.81mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Builder-sourced finished and unfinished area information
HOA & community
Homeowners association with $95 monthly feeAssociation maintains common areas, roads, snow removal, and trashAssociation amenities include clubhouse, fitness facility, meeting room, picnic area, playground, pool(s), tennis courts, and trails

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage2 garage spacesGarage faces frontGarage door openerOff-street parkingConcrete parkingElectricity to garage
Security
Deadbolt(s)Smoke detector(s)Carbon monoxide detector(s)Radon mitigation system
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerUnderground electricCable availableFiber optic available
Home design
Detached propertyTwo storiesNew constructionHERS Index Score verified
Construction
Built with vinyl sidingStick-built constructionInsulated concrete forms (ICFs)Blown-in insulationPoured slab foundationArchitectural roofModel: BIRCH
Exterior features
Covered patioPatioLandscaped lotCommunity poolAssociation poolSidewalksPool within association

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherElectric rangeDisposalMicrowaveRefrigeratorENERGY STAR qualified appliances
Flooring
CarpetLuxury vinyl plank
Bathrooms
Two full bathroomsOne half bathroomOne main-level bathroom
Heating & cooling
Heat pump heatingElectric heatingCentral air conditioningHas heating and cooling
Interior features
Double vanityWalk-in closet(s)Entrance foyerKitchen islandProgrammable thermostatRecessed lightingInsulated windowsLow-emissivity windowsWindow screensTilt-in windowsLow VOC paint/materials
Laundry & utility
WasherDryer

HOA detail $95/mo · $1,140/yr

Likely covers
poolgym

Listing history 6 events

  1. 2026-06-03
    days on market $374,990 Active 20 DOM
  2. 2026-06-02
    days on market $374,990 Active 19 DOM
  3. 2026-06-01
    days on market $374,990 Active 18 DOM
  4. 2026-05-31
    days on market $374,990 Active 17 DOM
  5. 2026-05-30
    days on market $374,990 Active 16 DOM
  6. 2026-05-14
    listed $389,990 Active 995-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$35,671
− Mortgage interest
−$21,005
− Property taxes
−$5,625
− Insurance
−$1,875
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,854
− Management
−$2,854
− HOA
−$1,140
− Depreciation
−$10,909
Taxable loss
−$10,590
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,542
After-tax cash flow
$-1,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 24 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern amenities, making it an attractive investment.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
  • Rental furniture — improves rental readiness ↑
  • Resale amenities — amenities like pools and clubhouse attract buyers ↑
D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ruckersville Elementary C+ VA #583/1,108 Nat'l #8,292/41,679 Middle William Monroe Middle C VA #226/342 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High William Monroe High C+ VA #256/319 Nat'l #3,898/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Greene County Public School District
NCES district ID
5101710
Math proficiency
40% ▼ -37.00%
Reading proficiency
64% ▼ -7.00%
Median HH income
$59,129
Composite
45.22/100
National rank
#2668
State rank
#88 of 131 in VA
C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Ruckersville

Score
66/100
State rank
#318
US rank
#11455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Orange County · 20,465 people
City population
6,435
Metro
Charlottesville, VA
Population (ZIP)
6,435
Household income
$118,125
Rent vs Own
25.2% rent · 74.8% own

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
20,465 people
By 2030
20,958 · +2.4%
By 2040
21,619 · +5.6%
By 2050
21,699 · +6.0%
By 2075
21,656 · +5.8%
By 2100
20,156 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (89%)
Race & ethnicity
White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
Common ancestry
Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
Foreign-born
3%
Languages at home
97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

2024 margin
Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing
-2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
All cycles
2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

Civics
—

Price history

-3.8% since first listed
3 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — CAAR
  • 2026-05-20 Price Changed $374,990 CAAR
  • 2026-05-14 Listed $389,990 CAAR

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…