503 Arches Ln · Ruckersville, VA 22923

$374,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,534 sqft lot Garage $223/sqft · 11% below area Est $424k · 11% under $95/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back by popular demand! Creekside 2-Story Single Family Homes, Greene County’s NEWEST amenity filled community featuring 2 pools, clubhouse with fitness center, playground, pickleball, walking trails and much more! Located north of Charlottesville on 29, set in a peaceful setting with beautiful mountain views. This to be built Birch Floorplan features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 2-car garage. An open concept design with a spacious owner's suite with private bath & walk-in closet. Enjoy a gourmet kitchen with maple cabinetry, spacious kitchen, granite counters and stainless steel appliances.

Key facts

• Pickleball
• 2 pools
• Playground

Tags

• 2 POOLS
• CLUBHOUSE WITH FITNESS CENTER
• PLAYGROUND
• PICKLEBALL
• WALKING TRAILS
• BEAUTIFUL MOUNTAIN VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $375k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $339k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $308k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $308k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.0% in Ruckersville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#318 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ruckersville Elementary (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C+, #583 of 1,108 statewide, top 53%, 506 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $308,420 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.86%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,548
• List price: $374,990
• Delta: -11.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
383 White Sands Blvd	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,696 (+1%)	3mo	$443,675	$262	84
40 Sequoia Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,696 (+1%)	1mo	$445,625	$263	82
48 Sequoia Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,723 (+3%)	2mo	$428,175	$249	79
26 Sequoia Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,559 (-7%)	0mo	$425,775	$273	72
39 Gunnison Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,533 (-9%)	3mo	$446,857	$291	72
365 White Sands Blvd	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,559 (-7%)	2mo	$434,540	$279	71
352 Daniels Rd	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,597 (-5%)	1mo	$400,000	$250	69
6092 Flintstone Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,730 (+3%)	3mo	$389,900	$225	64
140 Gunnison Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0	1,925 (+15%)	3mo	$465,000	$242	63
225 Trailfork Rd	0.74mi	4/2.5	1,760 (+5%)	2mo	$407,490	$232	56
201 Tanglewood Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,432 (-15%)	3mo	$355,000	$248	53
193 Trailfork Rd Lot 76	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,554 (-8%)	2mo	$373,389	$240	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-76,579
• Equity at exit: $55,912

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-86,757
• Equity at exit: $32,422

Cash invested: $104,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 37 active · 42 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.8 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $399,000 ($250/sqft)
• Median days on market: 36 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 22923

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,084 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,625/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$95
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$648
• Net cashflow: $-250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,401

Max offer price $338,821

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9	-5% $-120	+0% $-250	+5% $-380	+10% $-509
Rent	-10% $-494	-5% $-372	+0% $-250	+5% $-128	+10% $-6
Rate	-1.0pp $-61	-0.5pp $-155	base $-250	+0.5pp $-347	+1.0pp $-446

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,748
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
92 Everglades RD Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.5	1903	$2,795	$1.47	62d	1	0.22mi
32 Estes Ct Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,600	$1.86	62d	1	0.46mi
591 Preddy Creek Rd Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,250	$1.88	23d	1	0.46mi
95 Terrace Greene Cir Barboursville, VA	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.5	1464	$2,950	$2.01	0d	12	0.66mi
144 Lake Saponi Dr #7 Barboursville, VA	3.0	1.5	1260	$2,000	$1.59	22d	1	0.68mi
50 Grayson Village DR Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1470	$2,095	$1.43	0d	1	0.73mi
54 Mannie Ct Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,600	$1.55	62d	1	0.79mi
59 Grayson Village DR Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1470	$2,100	$1.43	0d	1	0.81mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder-sourced finished and unfinished area information
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $95 monthly feeAssociation maintains common areas, roads, snow removal, and trashAssociation amenities include clubhouse, fitness facility, meeting room, picnic area, playground, pool(s), tennis courts, and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spacesGarage faces frontGarage door openerOff-street parkingConcrete parkingElectricity to garage
• Security: Deadbolt(s)Smoke detector(s)Carbon monoxide detector(s)Radon mitigation system
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerUnderground electricCable availableFiber optic available
• Home design: Detached propertyTwo storiesNew constructionHERS Index Score verified
• Construction: Built with vinyl sidingStick-built constructionInsulated concrete forms (ICFs)Blown-in insulationPoured slab foundationArchitectural roofModel: BIRCH
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioLandscaped lotCommunity poolAssociation poolSidewalksPool within association

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeDisposalMicrowaveRefrigeratorENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Flooring: CarpetLuxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroomOne main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingElectric heatingCentral air conditioningHas heating and cooling
• Interior features: Double vanityWalk-in closet(s)Entrance foyerKitchen islandProgrammable thermostatRecessed lightingInsulated windowsLow-emissivity windowsWindow screensTilt-in windowsLow VOC paint/materials
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

HOA detail $95/mo · $1,140/yr

• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $374,990 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $374,990 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $374,990 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $374,990 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $374,990 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-05-14
   listed $389,990 Active 995-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,005
• − Property taxes: −$5,625
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,961
• − Management: −$2,961
• − HOA: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$9,465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,272
• After-tax cash flow: $-728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 24 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern amenities, making it an attractive investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Rental furniture — improves rental readiness ↑
• Resale amenities — amenities like pools and clubhouse attract buyers ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ruckersville Elementary C+ VA #583/1,108 Nat'l #8,292/41,679 Middle William Monroe Middle C VA #226/342 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High William Monroe High C+ VA #256/319 Nat'l #3,898/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Ruckersville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #11455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 20,465 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,435
• Household income: $118,125
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own

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Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.41%
• Current HPI: 303.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder-sourced finished and unfinished area information
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $95 monthly feeAssociation maintains common areas, roads, snow removal, and trashAssociation amenities include clubhouse, fitness facility, meeting room, picnic area, playground, pool(s), tennis courts, and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spacesGarage faces frontGarage door openerOff-street parkingConcrete parkingElectricity to garage
• Security: Deadbolt(s)Smoke detector(s)Carbon monoxide detector(s)Radon mitigation system
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerUnderground electricCable availableFiber optic available
• Home design: Detached propertyTwo storiesNew constructionHERS Index Score verified
• Construction: Built with vinyl sidingStick-built constructionInsulated concrete forms (ICFs)Blown-in insulationPoured slab foundationArchitectural roofModel: BIRCH
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioLandscaped lotCommunity poolAssociation poolSidewalksPool within association

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeDisposalMicrowaveRefrigeratorENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Flooring: CarpetLuxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroomOne main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingElectric heatingCentral air conditioningHas heating and cooling
• Interior features: Double vanityWalk-in closet(s)Entrance foyerKitchen islandProgrammable thermostatRecessed lightingInsulated windowsLow-emissivity windowsWindow screensTilt-in windowsLow VOC paint/materials
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $374,990 CAAR
• 2026-05-14 Listed $389,990 CAAR