3816 Robbins Rd · Montgomery, AL 36109

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1959 0.28 ac lot $147/sqft · 26% above area Est $117k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN READY! FOREST HILLS AREA! This cute 3bdrm/ 1bath home, fenced in yard offers great privacy and seclusion. Perfect location and access to retail, schools and interstate. Hardwood floors, central heat and air and one car garage. In 2023 this home was given many upgrades to include a new roof, central heat and air and water heater. Home is currently occupied and requires a 24 hour notice for showings.

Key facts

• Forest hills area
• Central heat and air
• Water heater

Tags

• FENCED IN YARD
• FOREST HILLS AREA
• NEW ROOF
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities D-.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Flowers Elementary School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #508 of 627 statewide, top 84%, 394 students, 74% FRL); Goodwyn Middle School (math 0% / reading 16%, grade F, #239 of 257 statewide, top 93%, 808 students, 84% FRL); Lee High School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #276 of 305 statewide, top 95%, 1,374 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $114k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,072 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.93%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $116,995
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: 19.66%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 Nottingham Rd	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,016 (+7%)	10mo	$95,900	$94	71
3618 Nottingham Rd	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,035 (+9%)	6mo	$97,000	$94	58
3802 E Marquette Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,025 (+8%)	17mo	$70,000	$68	49
620 Milan Ct	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+14%)	11mo	$115,000	$106	48
3776 Wares Ferry Rd	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,005 (+6%)	13mo	$99,900	$99	44
3508 Cottonwood Dr	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,066 (+12%)	10mo	$93,000	$87	43
4113 Moye Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+11%)	12mo	$116,000	$110	43
3405 Vermont Dr	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,061 (+12%)	6mo	$88,000	$83	43
931 Green Ridge Rd	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,073 (+13%)	15mo	$85,000	$79	27
235 Forest Hills Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,066 (+12%)	16mo	$87,000	$82	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-17,075
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-8,976
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36109

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,171 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $441/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $135	+0% $96	+5% $56	+10% $16
Rent	-10% $3	-5% $49	+0% $96	+5% $142	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $166	-0.5pp $131	base $96	+0.5pp $59	+1.0pp $22

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 Dalraida Rd Unit D Montgomery, AL	2.0	2.0	838	$875	$1.04	45d	1	0.54mi
3334 Cottonwood Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1025	$1,295	$1.26	15d	1	0.72mi
3456 Harrison Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,300	$1.29	45d	1	0.81mi
3319 Willow Lane Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1032	$1,200	$1.16	45d	1	0.83mi
4041A Beth Manor Dr Montgomery, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,000	$1.08	23d	20	0.90mi
1154 Lakewood Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1066	$1,350	$1.27	45d	1	0.98mi
186 E Salem Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,195	$1.15	23d	1	1.11mi
122 Oak Forest Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1092	$975	$0.89	23d	1	1.17mi
301 Bradley Dr Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	841	$935	$1.11	15d	1	1.18mi
311 Bradley Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1104	$825	$0.75	45d	1	1.19mi
80 Turner Pl Unit 14 Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	620	$750	$1.21	45d	1	1.24mi
319 Olivia Ct Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	850	$700	$0.82	23d	1	1.25mi
7 Calhoun Rd Unit B Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	961	$850	$0.88	45d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    listed $140,000 Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Adorable, move-in ready home in Forest Hills area. Fenced in yard offers privacy and seclusion. Conveniently located near retail, school and interstate. Many updates in 2023 including: new roof, central heat and air, water heater.

18. 2026-04-08
    listed $140,000 Active 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Adorable, move-in ready home in Forest Hills area. Fenced in yard offers privacy and seclusion. Conveniently located near retail, school and interstate. Many updates in 2023 including: new roof, central heat and air, water heater.

19. 2023-12-05
    soldstatus $114,000
20. 2023-12-02
    status Pending
21. 2023-11-30
    soldstatus $114,000 Closed
22. 2023-11-01
    historical Contingent
23. 2023-10-27
    price $114,900
24. 2023-10-22
    listed $119,000 Active
25. 2023-03-22
    soldstatus $58,000
26. 2023-03-21
    soldstatus $58,000 Closed
27. 2023-03-08
    status Pending
28. 2023-03-07
    listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $441 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $574 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$133/yr (+$11/mo · 30.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$441
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,124
• − Management: −$1,124
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$1,255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$301
• After-tax cash flow: $1,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County
• NCES district ID: 0102430
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,902
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9093
• State rank: #106 of 129 in AL

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #13416

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montgomery, AL
• County: Montgomery County · 190,016 people
• City population: 175,913
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 23,581
• Household income: $59,193
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1039.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 224,008 people
• By 2030: 221,460 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 214,179 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 204,912 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 177,821 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 145,134 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.7) · D 64.8% · R 34.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: 30.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+31.5 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+24.3 2008: D+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.64%
• Current HPI: 149.3867
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+180.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $140,000 LMMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $140,000 MAAR
• 2023-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-02 Pending — MAAR
• 2023-11-30 Sold (MLS) $114,000 MAAR
• 2023-11-01 Contingent — MAAR
• 2023-10-27 Price Changed $114,900 MAAR
• 2023-10-22 Listed $119,000 MAAR
• 2023-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-21 Sold (MLS) $58,000 MAAR
• 2023-03-08 Pending — MAAR
• 2023-03-07 Listed $49,900 MAAR

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $441 · -33.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.