2940 Dover Dr · Florissant, MO 63033

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1965 10,162 sqft lot $150/sqft · at area comps Est $207k · at est. $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into 2940 Dover Dr, recently updated with fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout the home. The kitchen features all stainless steel appliances and an accent backsplash, complemented by a central fireplace. Outside, a patio, storage shed, and fenced in backyard create a functional exterior. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• New flooring
• Fresh interior paint
• Outdoor patio

Tags

• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ACCENT BACKSPLASH
• FIREPLACE
• OUTDOOR PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($287/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#82 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, schools D.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $210k implies a 320% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,597 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,112
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: 1.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2940 Dover Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	1mo	$210,000	$150	100
4 Cameo Ct	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,405 (+0%)	0mo	$150,000	$107	88
2945 Dover Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,470 (+5%)	2mo	$185,400	$126	84
2560 Woodsage Dr	0.26mi	3/3.0	1,390 (-1%)	1mo	$220,000	$158	82
2910 Wellington Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,517 (+8%)	1mo	$159,900	$105	77
7 Darwin Ct	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+11%)	0mo	$200,000	$128	70
9 Darwin Ct	0.15mi	3/3.0	1,540 (+10%)	4mo	$235,000	$153	69
2405 Orleans Ln	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,424 (+2%)	2mo	$239,900	$168	66
549 Rancho Ln	0.67mi	3/3.0	1,432 (+2%)	0mo	$279,000	$195	61
548 Rancho Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,264 (-10%)	4mo	$225,900	$179	50
2570 Guildford Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,274 (-9%)	5mo	$180,000	$141	48
490 Jana Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	1mo	$195,000	$122	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $124,460
• Equity at exit: $189,185

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.57×
• Total profit: $386,133
• Equity at exit: $407,984

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,806 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,472/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,776

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1983 Greenheath Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,331	$1.28	3d	1	0.36mi
13 Cricket Ct Florissant, MO	4.0	3.0	1560	$2,550	$1.63	43d	1	0.40mi
330 Moule Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,575	$1.55	43d	1	0.59mi
3144 Sunswept Pk Ct Florissant, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,250	$1.53	1d	12	0.59mi
1785 Trotter Way Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1297	$1,806	$1.39	7d	1	0.68mi
1710 Kay Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	2d	1	0.79mi
2990 Santiago Dr Florissant, MO	2.0	2.0	984	$1,200	$1.22	43d	1	0.81mi
1740 Deborah Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,750	$1.06	17d	1	0.85mi
775 Sherwood Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,690	$1.65	43d	1	0.92mi
1600 Horseshoe Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,550	$1.18	43d	1	0.93mi
3 Cantabrian Ct Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,881	$1.31	14d	1	0.97mi
2942 Chance Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,700	$1.86	12d	1	1.03mi
9 Saint Celeste Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	992	$1,450	$1.46	43d	1	1.12mi
3 Champlain Ct Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	43d	1	1.13mi
2075 Cordoba Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,850	$1.21	14d	1	1.18mi
2857 Dawnview Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	890	$1,325	$1.49	7d	1	1.21mi
470 Hundley Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	962	$1,595	$1.66	43d	1	1.24mi
945 Paddock Dr Florissant, MO	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	4d	1	1.37mi
15686 93rd Ave Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,948	$1.42	12d	1	1.38mi
1095 Humes Ln Florissant, MO	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,650	$1.50	4d	1	1.41mi
3930 Belcroft Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	3.0	1408	$1,935	$1.37	43d	1	1.41mi
4112 Monsols Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,945	$1.74	43d	1	1.48mi
4 Sharon Ct Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1108	$1,800	$1.62	2d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   Step into 2940 Dover Dr, recently updated with fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout the home. The kitchen features all stainless steel appliances and an accent backsplash, complemented by a central fireplace. Outside, a patio, storage shed, and fenced in backyard create a functional exterior. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

2. 2026-04-29
   status Active 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   Step into 2940 Dover Dr, recently updated with fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout the home. The kitchen features all stainless steel appliances and an accent backsplash, complemented by a central fireplace. Outside, a patio, storage shed, and fenced in backyard create a functional exterior. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

3. 2026-04-17
   status Pending 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   Step into 2940 Dover Dr, recently updated with fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout the home. The kitchen features all stainless steel appliances and an accent backsplash, complemented by a central fireplace. Outside, a patio, storage shed, and fenced in backyard create a functional exterior. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

4. 2026-04-01
   listed $210,000 Active 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   Step into 2940 Dover Dr, recently updated with fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout the home. The kitchen features all stainless steel appliances and an accent backsplash, complemented by a central fireplace. Outside, a patio, storage shed, and fenced in backyard create a functional exterior. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

5. 2017-01-17
   soldstatus $50,000
6. 2002-05-02
   soldstatus $117,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,472 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,472 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$2,472
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,734
• − Management: −$1,734
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,287
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$789
• After-tax cash flow: $1,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Florissant

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #5406

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 69,104
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+78.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $210,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $117,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,472 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.