11931 N Bearl Ter · Citrus Springs, FL 34433

$189,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1960 0.30 ac lot Est $195k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 2BR/2BA home, Fla. Room, Fenced Back Yard, new paint inside and out, new carpet, move in condition, immediate occupancy, waterfront lot on canal to Withlacoochee River at end of street included as part of sell.

Key facts

• Brick paver patio
• Covered storage
• Large backyard

Tags

• ENCLOSED PORCH
• LARGE BACKYARD
• BRICK PAVER PATIO
• WORKSHOP
• COVERED STORAGE
• WATERFRONT PARCEL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Has additional parcels; Two lots (total acreage about 0.3 acre); Deeded 30' waterfront frontage on canal (30 feet reported)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces west; Residential property
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area consistent with public records
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Porch; Rain gutters; Canal access (freshwater) with deeded 30' x 20' lot leading to the Withlacoochee River; Cleared lot; Oak trees on property; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $586 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 5.1% in Citrus Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Citrus Springs Elementary School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 817 students, 71% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 653 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $189k implies a 286% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.30%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,144
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11909 N Care Pt	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,132 (+0%)	16mo	$165,000	$146	68
11910 N Care Pt	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+8%)	16mo	$210,000	$173	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,717
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $53,901
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34433

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,927/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $586

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,558

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $693	-5% $640	+0% $586	+5% $533	+10% $480
Rent	-10% $405	-5% $496	+0% $586	+5% $677	+10% $768
Rate	-1.0pp $682	-0.5pp $635	base $586	+0.5pp $538	+1.0pp $488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6185 W Riverbend Rd Dunnellon, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$2,300	$2.40	15d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   status Active
3. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-13
   listed $189,000 Active
5. 2000-12-29
   soldstatus $49,000
6. 2000-12-16
   soldstatus $49,000 215-char remark

   Show marketing remark (215 chars)

   Cute 2BR/2BA home, Fla. Room, Fenced Back Yard, new paint inside and out, new carpet, move in condition, immediate occupancy, waterfront lot on canal to Withlacoochee River at end of street included as part of sell.

7. 2000-01-24
   listed $49,000 215-char remark

   Show marketing remark (215 chars)

   Cute 2BR/2BA home, Fla. Room, Fenced Back Yard, new paint inside and out, new carpet, move in condition, immediate occupancy, waterfront lot on canal to Withlacoochee River at end of street included as part of sell.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,927
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $4,227
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,014
• After-tax cash flow: $6,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Citrus Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #9598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,730
• Population (ZIP): 8,218

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.35%
• Current HPI: 340.9844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+285.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 2000-12-16 Sold (MLS) $49,000 RACC
• 2000-01-24 Listed $49,000 RACC

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,927 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.