195 Aztec Dr · Gold Key Lake, PA 18458

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 2021 Excellent condition 5,227 sqft lot $159/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

READY TO RELAX AND SPEND ENDLESS HOURS OF FAMILY TIME IN THIS 2021 COUNTRY MANOR PARK MODEL TRAILER, COMPLETE INSIDE AND OUT WITH EVERYTHING YOU NEED!! Situated on a mostly level graveled lot, this one bedroom, plus loft comfortably sleeps 8 people. Included with sale is a shed (new flooring inside ready to go), a grill, outdoor seating, canopy area with large table, a fire pit and trampoline for the kiddos!! Trails End is open year-round, but you may only occupy your RV campsite 180 days a year. Plenty to do in the area, as Lake Wallenpaupack is just a short drive away, as is Historic Milford, Shohola Falls Trail and the scenic Delaware River.

Key facts

• Outdoor seating
• Trampoline
• Canopy area

Tags

• GRAVELED LOT
• SHED WITH NEW FLOORING
• OUTDOOR SEATING
• CANOPY AREA
• FIRE PIT
• TRAMPOLINE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.12 acres; Zoned commercial; Directions: From Trails End Entrance, after gate continue straight and make a right onto Aztec Dr. Continue to the end of Aztec; property will be on the right.; Subdivision: Trails End
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee; Annual association fee $1,910 (approx. $159.17/month); Association fee includes electricity, security, water, trash, sewer; Association amenities include pool, clubhouse, fitness center, game room, playground, picnic area, barbecue, basketball court, and trash service

Exterior

• Security: 24-hour security; Gated community
• Utilities: Water (association); Trash service (association); Sewer (association); Electricity (association)
• Home design: Residential property attached; Vacation RV/Trailer subtype; Located in gated community
• Construction: 500 above-grade finished area; No basement or foundation details listed
• Exterior features: Gas grill; RV hookup; Exterior lighting

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven; Microwave; Built-in refrigerator
• Flooring: Combination
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Ceiling fan(s); Wall/window air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Combination flooring
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups on site

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 6.1% in Gold Key Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#789 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shohola El Sch (math 52% / reading 77%, grade B, #249 of 1,518 statewide, top 19%, 434 students, 40% FRL); Delaware Valley Ms (math 33% / reading 70%, grade C, #109 of 512 statewide, top 22%, 479 students, 38% FRL); Delaware Valley Hs (math 77% / reading 75%, grade A-, #25 of 437 statewide, top 6%, 1,418 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.83%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $70,831
• Equity at exit: $72,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.37×
• Total profit: $187,479
• Equity at exit: $155,422

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18458

• Home prices YoY: 13.2%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,441 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$159
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $901

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $481	-5% $454	+0% $426	+5% $398	+10% $371
Rent	-10% $312	-5% $369	+0% $426	+5% $483	+10% $540
Rate	-1.0pp $466	-0.5pp $446	base $426	+0.5pp $405	+1.0pp $384

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $159 · $1,908/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 654-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    listed $80,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,383
• − Management: −$1,383
• − HOA: −$1,908
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $4,204
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,009
• After-tax cash flow: $4,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This 2021 Country Manor Park model trailer is in excellent condition with no visible damage. It is move-in ready and offers a comfortable living space with a well-maintained exterior and interior. The property has a good curb appeal and is located in a desirable area with plenty of activities nearby.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and outdoor furniture — Enhances curb appeal and provides a comfortable outdoor living space.
• Both Add a small garden or flower bed — Improves curb appeal and adds aesthetic value.
• Both Install a small outdoor lighting system — Enhances safety and adds aesthetic value at night.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and outdoor furniture — Enhances curb appeal and provides a comfortable outdoor living space. ↑
• Both Add a small garden or flower bed — Improves curb appeal and adds aesthetic value. ↑
• Both Install a small outdoor lighting system — Enhances safety and adds aesthetic value at night. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Gold Key Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #789
• US rank: #7969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,576

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.80%
• Current HPI: 272.6294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $80,000 PWMLS