433 Van Dyke Rd · Utica, NY 13502

$234,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,206 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1961 7,740 sqft lot Est $204k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well maintained North Utica Ranch offering Living and Formal Dining Rooms, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The partially finished lower level provides additional flexible space for recreation area or home office. Enjoy the 3-season room overlooking a beautiful expansive fully fenced yard perfect for relaxing or hosting. Additional updates include windows, central air, electrical and granite kitchen countertops. Conveniently located close to local amenities, making this home a great choice.

Key facts

• 7,740 sq ft lot
• Built 1961
• Listed 6 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Utica City School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #562 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Jefferson Elementary School (math 28% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 456 students, 80% FRL); John F Kennedy Middle School (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #534 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 695 students, 77% FRL); Thomas R Proctor High School (math 86% / reading 62%, grade B+, #659 of 1,100 statewide, top 60%, 2,675 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $197,842 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.82%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,814
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
411 Van Roen Rd	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,250 (+4%)	1mo	$195,000	$156	77
425 Larchmont Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+11%)	0mo	$185,000	$138	69
459 Elmdale Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+2%)	8mo	$300,000	$244	69
713 Deerfield Dr E	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,236 (+2%)	8mo	$215,000	$174	68
222 Deerfield Dr E	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,376 (+14%)	7mo	$233,000	$169	65
405 Van Roen Rd	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-4%)	8mo	$250,000	$217	65
218 Deerfield Dr E	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,376 (+14%)	8mo	$232,900	$169	64
502 Mary Elaine Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,376 (+14%)	8mo	$206,000	$150	62
459 Euclid Rd	0.11mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,357 (+12%)	7mo	$280,000	$206	61
5485 Walker Rd	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,156 (-4%)	5mo	$190,000	$164	59
704 Dawes Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+2%)	5mo	$110,000	$90	57
162 Deerfield Dr W	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,290 (+7%)	7mo	$215,000	$167	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-31,772
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-19,755
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13502

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,600/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,852

Max offer price $234,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $233	-5% $166	+0% $100	+5% $33	+10% $-33
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $22	+0% $100	+5% $178	+10% $256
Rate	-1.0pp $218	-0.5pp $160	base $100	+0.5pp $39	+1.0pp $-23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Patriot Cir Utica, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1451	$3,115	$2.15	45d	6	0.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $234,900 Active
3. 2025-04-24
   status Pending
4. 2025-03-27
   listed $205,000 Active
5. 2018-08-31
   historical
6. 2018-08-02
   listed $118,000
7. 2018-07-27
   historical
8. 2018-04-17
   listed $121,500
9. 2017-11-15
   historical
10. 2017-10-24
    historical
11. 2017-07-03
    listed $121,500
12. 2017-06-16
    listed $120,500
13. 2015-10-01
    historical
14. 2015-05-02
    listed $114,900
15. 2014-06-23
    listed $119,433
16. 2014-06-15
    historical
17. 2014-05-30
    listed $124,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,785 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,185/yr (+$99/mo · 74.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$1,600
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,899
• − Management: −$1,899
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$2,824
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$678
• After-tax cash flow: $1,876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica City School District
• NCES district ID: 3629370
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,834
• Composite: 29.01/100
• National rank: #6613
• State rank: #562 of 590 in NY

Livability — Utica

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1589

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Utica, NY
• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 72,968
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,037
• Household income: $57,835
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1604.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.76%
• Current HPI: 368.3955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+88.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $234,900 CNYIS
• 2025-04-24 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-03-27 Listed $205,000 CNYIS
• 2018-08-31 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2018-08-02 Listed $118,000 CNYIS
• 2018-07-27 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2018-04-17 Listed $121,500 CNYIS
• 2017-11-15 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2017-10-24 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2017-07-03 Listed $121,500 CNYIS
• 2017-06-16 Listed $120,500 CNYIS
• 2015-10-01 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2015-05-02 Listed $114,900 CNYIS
• 2014-06-23 Listed $119,433 CNYIS
• 2014-06-15 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2014-05-30 Listed $124,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,600 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.