1038 Gibson Pl · Gary, IN 46403

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1953 6,098 sqft lot $144/sqft · 52% above area ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newly remodeled in 2023. Great investment opportunity or primary home. Property is still very well cared for. Home is located a few minutes from the Miller area with great restaurants and businesses.

Key facts

• Remodeled
• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1953

Tags

• REMODELED
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Occupant: Tenant

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; On-street parking; Gravel parking areas; Concrete surfaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Built in 1953
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Neighborhood view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Two additional bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floor plan; Granite counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.86%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,598
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: 52.12%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5534 E 10th Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0	850 (+6%)	10mo	$95,000	$112	78
1047 Decatur St	0.31mi	3/1.0	850 (+6%)	2mo	$65,500	$77	73
1167 Gibson Pl	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (0%)	23mo	$70,000	$88	71
5232 E 13th Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0	850 (+6%)	10mo	$123,500	$145	71
1134 Dekalb St	0.23mi	3/1.0	884 (+10%)	8mo	$148,000	$167	65
816 Floyd St	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (+14%)	12mo	$32,000	$35	52
4514 E 10th Ave	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-10%)	2mo	$115,000	$160	51
1211 Gibson Pl	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	898 (+12%)	23mo	$70,000	$78	50
605 S Howard St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	862 (+8%)	8mo	$119,900	$139	46
356 S Henry St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	790 (-1%)	17mo	$74,500	$94	44
646 S Hamilton St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	904 (+13%)	17mo	$650,000	$719	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,009
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $34,704
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46403

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,358 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $887

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1041 DeKalb St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1006	$1,250	$1.24	43d	1	0.20mi
1118 Benton St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	936	$1,245	$1.33	1d	1	0.54mi
430 S Grand Blvd Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	830	$865	$1.04	1d	1	0.79mi
283 N Hamilton St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	3d	1	1.21mi
1252-54 Idaho St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	1d	1	1.22mi
440 N Lake St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0–2.0	677	$1,400	$2.07	1d	5	1.39mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $115,000 Pending 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $115,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $120,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $120,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $120,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-04-26
    listed $120,000 Active 200-char remark
11. 2024-12-17
    historical
12. 2024-12-06
    price $110,000
13. 2024-10-17
    price $119,000
14. 2024-09-13
    price $120,000
15. 2024-08-15
    price $125,000
16. 2024-07-17
    price $128,000
17. 2024-06-17
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $598 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $788 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$190/yr (+$16/mo · 31.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,726
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$654
• After-tax cash flow: $3,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 10,929
• Household income: $45,991
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 656.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 18% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.41%
• Current HPI: 294.0935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-14.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $115,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-26 Listed $120,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-17 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-06 Price Changed $110,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $119,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-13 Price Changed $120,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-15 Price Changed $125,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-17 Price Changed $128,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-17 Listed $135,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $598 · +126.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.